Top Republican House Defenses and Targets
by Chris Bowers, Thu Apr 06, 2006 at 12:43:02 PM EDT
I scored this from a source who has access to an NRCC blast fax about their new "Million Dollar Roundtable." It is, in short, a list of what the NRCC currently believes to be their top 32 races in 2006. As you can see, they only have eleven targets, but twenty-one defenses:
Defenses (District: Republican Representative)
AZ-O8: OPEN (KoIbe); CA-50: OPEN (Cunningham); CO-07: OPEN (Beauprez); CT-02: Rob Simmons; CT-04: Chris Shays; FL-22: Clay Shaw; IA-01: OPEN (Nussle); IN-02: Chris Chocola; IN-08: John Hostettler; IN-09: Mike Sodrel; IL-06: OPEN (Hyde); KY-04: Geoff Davis; MN-06: OPEN (Kennedy); NM-O1: Heather L. Wilson; NC-11: Charles Taylor; OH-18: Bob Ney; PA-O6: Jim Ger1ach; PA-08: Mike Fitzpatrick; WA-08: Dave Reichert; WI-O8: OPEN (Green); TX-22: Tom Delay
Here is the rub: they don't even list great opportunities for Democrats like PA-07, NY-24, FL-13 (Katherine Harris's vacant seat) and OH-15, probably because those seats have only clearly become vulnerable in the last two weeks (the fax did not show TX-22 to be open, for example). This list could easily expand, even though their own targeting already suggests that enough seats are vulnerable to lose the House. Overall, Republicans are defending at least ten major open seats: AZ-08, CA-50, CO-07, FL-13, IA-01, IL-06, MN-06, NY-24, TX-22 and WI-08. By way of comparison, as you can see from their targeting, they are only attacking two open seats, including ultra-Democratic VT-AL:
Targets (District: Democratic Representative)
CO-03: John Salazar; IA-03: Leonard Boswell; GA-O8: Jim Marshall; GA-12: John Barrow; IL-08: Melissa Bean; LA-03: Charlie Melancon; OH-O6: OPEN (Strickland); SC-05: John Spratt; TX-17: Chet Edwards; WA-02: Rick Larsen; VT-AL: OPEN (Sanders)
Two things jump out at me. First, I can't really see how this list can grow much, although Scott might be vulnerable in Georgia. Second, if VT-AL is on their list, they are really, really struggling to find new targets. Sure, it is an open seat, but with a Democratic partisan voting edge of around 11%.
A quick look at the NRCC target list reveals just how thin it actually is. First, note that even now, with a stranglehold on the south, five of the eleven Republican targets come from that region. Of course, even in the south, four of the five Democrats being targeted are vulnerable to mid-term redistricting (GA-08, GA-12, TX-17), or Katrina redistricting (LA-03). Outside of the south, two others are open seats, and two more are freshman Dems. Among all non-southern long-term Democratic incumbents, only Leonard Boswell in the IA-03 and Rick Larsen in WA-02 are being targeted by Republicans. Now tell me who is a regional party. Now tell me who is going to be playing defense in 2006.
The Republican target list is only one seat (11) longer than their major open seat defense list (10). While we are still not there yet, the makings of a real tidal wave are rising seemingly every day.
Defenses (District: Republican Representative)
AZ-O8: OPEN (KoIbe); CA-50: OPEN (Cunningham); CO-07: OPEN (Beauprez); CT-02: Rob Simmons; CT-04: Chris Shays; FL-22: Clay Shaw; IA-01: OPEN (Nussle); IN-02: Chris Chocola; IN-08: John Hostettler; IN-09: Mike Sodrel; IL-06: OPEN (Hyde); KY-04: Geoff Davis; MN-06: OPEN (Kennedy); NM-O1: Heather L. Wilson; NC-11: Charles Taylor; OH-18: Bob Ney; PA-O6: Jim Ger1ach; PA-08: Mike Fitzpatrick; WA-08: Dave Reichert; WI-O8: OPEN (Green); TX-22: Tom Delay
Here is the rub: they don't even list great opportunities for Democrats like PA-07, NY-24, FL-13 (Katherine Harris's vacant seat) and OH-15, probably because those seats have only clearly become vulnerable in the last two weeks (the fax did not show TX-22 to be open, for example). This list could easily expand, even though their own targeting already suggests that enough seats are vulnerable to lose the House. Overall, Republicans are defending at least ten major open seats: AZ-08, CA-50, CO-07, FL-13, IA-01, IL-06, MN-06, NY-24, TX-22 and WI-08. By way of comparison, as you can see from their targeting, they are only attacking two open seats, including ultra-Democratic VT-AL:
Targets (District: Democratic Representative)
CO-03: John Salazar; IA-03: Leonard Boswell; GA-O8: Jim Marshall; GA-12: John Barrow; IL-08: Melissa Bean; LA-03: Charlie Melancon; OH-O6: OPEN (Strickland); SC-05: John Spratt; TX-17: Chet Edwards; WA-02: Rick Larsen; VT-AL: OPEN (Sanders)
Two things jump out at me. First, I can't really see how this list can grow much, although Scott might be vulnerable in Georgia. Second, if VT-AL is on their list, they are really, really struggling to find new targets. Sure, it is an open seat, but with a Democratic partisan voting edge of around 11%.
A quick look at the NRCC target list reveals just how thin it actually is. First, note that even now, with a stranglehold on the south, five of the eleven Republican targets come from that region. Of course, even in the south, four of the five Democrats being targeted are vulnerable to mid-term redistricting (GA-08, GA-12, TX-17), or Katrina redistricting (LA-03). Outside of the south, two others are open seats, and two more are freshman Dems. Among all non-southern long-term Democratic incumbents, only Leonard Boswell in the IA-03 and Rick Larsen in WA-02 are being targeted by Republicans. Now tell me who is a regional party. Now tell me who is going to be playing defense in 2006.
The Republican target list is only one seat (11) longer than their major open seat defense list (10). While we are still not there yet, the makings of a real tidal wave are rising seemingly every day.
Tags: House 2006 (all tags)
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