Republican Party Losing Members

by Matt Stoller, Tue Apr 04, 2006 at 02:32:58 PM EDT

Mystery Pollster has an important post up. Gallup, which Chris has pointed out shows a higher number of Republican registered voters than other polling firms, has recorded a measurable move of Republicans to the Independent column.

According to Frank Newport, both parties tend to lose members after a Presidential election when the political environment is relatively low intensity, and gain members when the political environment heats up prior to a Presidential election.  What's happening now is that Republicans are losing members, and Democrats are holding steady.

This could mean several things, but it adds further data to the idea of a Republican brand meltdown.  Many Republicans like to think of their party as the party of 'adults' who can manage what those soft-hearted Democrats cannot.  It is increasingly clear to these competence Republicans that the new and improved theocratic Republican Party isn't their home anymore, since the Republican leadership could care less about competence and prudence.  Gallup's data also shows that the Democratic base isn't shrinking as it should, which adds a level of credence to Schumer's assertion that Democrats are fired up.  

If traditional trends hold, we should see an upswing of Democratsic registrants heading into 2008, which means a clear and consistent Democrat registration advantage.  

Tags: Republicans (all tags)

  • 7 Comments
  • 0 recs
  • Share
  • Permalink

Comments

7 Comments

Shadow_head_small
Re: Republican Party Losing Members

If McCain is the nominee for the Republicans, and Hillary is the nominee for the Dems we will probably see the people who moved to the independent category go back to the Republicans.  

McCain is selling himself out to please the Bush Republican base, now I don't know if the average voter is noticing this, if they are, then McCain might not pull back the independents, but if McCain is still going on Leno and Letterman and coming across as the nice moderate guy, then the Dems are still in trouble.  

by jbou 2006-04-04 03:46PM | 0 recs
Shadow_head_small
Re: Republican Party Losing Members

I still think the democrats' biggest problem is GOTV. Too many potential democratic voters simply do not vote and are no longer engaged in the political process.

Despite the increased turnout last time, you were still left with the feeling that the young, and the poor, had been left on the sidelines.

by kundalini 2006-04-04 04:00PM | 0 recs
Shadow_head_small
Re: Republican Party Losing Members

I hope there is something to this but I find it hard to get excited about a three point change over 6 years. At least the Gallup figures that are cited by Mark Blumenthal are based on a huge sample size.  

by howardpark 2006-04-04 04:31PM | 0 recs
Shadow_head_small
Re: Republican Party Losing Members

on the 29th, in an analysis of the same poll, Gallup reported that Democrats have a rather large edge when independent leaners are included. the analysis is private now, but the numbers including leaners were 49% dem - 42% gop.

by b1oody8romance7 2006-04-04 05:20PM | 0 recs
Shadow_head_small
Re: Republican Party Losing Members
You're slipping.
I read about that Gallup poll on another site almost a week ago.  Don't you regularly check out the competition?
by DaveG 2006-04-04 06:19PM | 0 recs
Shadow_head_small
Re: Republican Party Losing Members

Yeah but they're not moving to the Democrats, which means they have reservations with them also.

by liebermanlives 2006-04-04 06:37PM | 0 recs
Shadow_head_small
Considering how bad they've been

I'm surprised that they still have that many supporters. If the Democrats had the same political record we would be down 10-15%, since our base is not as loyal and our party not as good on tactics.

by Populism2008 2006-04-05 02:11AM | 0 recs

Diaries

Advertise Blogads


----------- myDD - skin -----------