Pew Releases Enormous Public Survey

Pew has just dropped a motherload of polling data of their website. It covers just about everything going on in the political world right now. Bush is at 35-55%. Dems lead the generic ballot 51-41, thanks entirely to a whopping 20-point lead among Independents. There is a rising anti-incumbent mood, but still not at 1994 levels. Democrats lead on ethics reform, but the country is cynical on that matter. Bush fatigue is rising. Opinions on Iraq are stable, and Iraq remains the number one story for people. Democrats are also favored on immigration, but by a plurality, not a majority. Third-party opinions remain stable, and on and on and on.

I could look at a report like this all day, but I want to reproduce here three charts from the report summary that I thought were particularly interesting.



Starting with the chart on the left, the negative charges against the two parties seem pretty clear. Republicans are greedy, rich, big business, crooks, corrupt, liars, etc. Basically, corrupt rich people. Democrats are weak, disorganized, confused, stupid, etc. Basically, people who don't know what they are doing.

Looking at the center chart, Hillary Clinton clearly receives the most votes for Democratic leader, but 16% still isn't a very high total. In fact, "no one" comes in at 30%, well above Hillary's total.

Finally, looking at the chart on the right, can we please have Bill Frist be the Republican nominee in 2008? Please, please, please! He has a significantly lower rating among Independents than any other potential candidate listed. This guy really looks like the ideal candidate for us to go up against in 2008. Also, these numbers indicate what an atrocious job we have done by allowing Republicans to have no many potential candidates with such broad appeal across partisan lines. While Republicans gleefully close the triangle during our internal battle over people like Clinton and Dean, Republicans like Giuliani, McCain and Rice continue to be generally unscathed.

On the Democratic side, it is no surprise to learn that John Edwards has the broadest national appeal. It is somewhat more surprising that Feingold and Warner do not score higher among Democrats (especially considering how well Feingold does among independents). I chalk both cases up to their still generally low name ID's (Feingold is at 38%, Warner is at 37%), although I admit it might not be a good sing for either one.

*** Finally, I have to wonder how much the people who conduct the Pew poll read MyDD. First, I gave them a Distorty award, and in their next survey they changed their Iraq quesiton. A little later on, I said trial heats for 2008 were useless at this point, and that I would rather see a favorables poll. So, they give us just that too. Spooky.

Tags: 2006, 2008, Democrats, polls, Republicans (all tags)

Comments

20 Comments

Re: Pew Releases Enormous Public Survey

It seems like Edward's image has not taken a beating like Kerry and Dean by the 2004 loss. Assuming he can do some effective fundraising, I consider Edwards to be the frontrunner at this point

by neodem 2006-04-20 12:01PM | 0 recs
Re: Pew Releases Enormous Public Survey

Are you an Edwards supporter?

by Virginia Blogger 2006-04-20 01:30PM | 0 recs
Re: Pew Releases Enormous Public Survey

im more of an Anyone-but-Hillary supporter

by neodem 2006-04-20 09:11PM | 0 recs
Re: Pew Releases Enormous Public Survey

I am sure they read your blog.  Who doesn't?

by NCJim 2006-04-20 12:15PM | 0 recs
Re: Pew Releases Enormous Public Survey

Focused on 2006, I find it difficult to write oppositonal diaries on any of the presumptive Republican candidates for the Presidency.  I guess oppositional research will have to wait until November.  But the numbers you reproduce reveal that such work must be performed.  Why are so many Democrats impressed with Republican candidates?

by illinois062006 2006-04-20 12:20PM | 0 recs
Re: Pew Releases Enormous Public Survey

I hope this shows Democratic activists how important it is to reclaim the word Liberal.

I would like to see Pew ask the Favorable/Unfavorable question about people's opinions of the words Conservative and Liberal.

I am sure I could predict the outcome.

Just a little self promotion, but this is how a friend and I are trying to reclaim it in our own back yard.

Liberalspots.com

by wes wing 2006-04-20 12:22PM | 0 recs
Re: Pew Releases Enormous Public Survey

I'll take our top 10(description of Democratic Party) over their top 10 any day

As I got further and further down the list I was laughing out loud at descriptions of Repug Party - and it all fit

by merbex 2006-04-20 12:22PM | 0 recs
Independent vote - 20% Lead

The indie vote +is+ with the Democrats now, simply because they are waiting to see if the Dems will pull the rabbit out of the hat and actually stand for something.

Karl Rove got demoted today - but just like that big huge lead, the devil is in the details for what's really going on.

Rove simply got re-focussed to doing what he would otherwise do, which is run political campaigns, and at the particular moment he would do it anyway, which are the midterms.

Same for the Indies - they can't stand corruption = they are an idealistic bunch. Right now, the GOP is radioactive.

But if the Dems don't stand up against it, and for reform, it will be just like Karl Rove heading back to his old job after the midterms.  A dog and pony for the faithful.

But little real significance. It comes as no surprise to me that the indie vote is so strongly allied with the Dems. - Its because of Dean.

A fiscal conservative, strong governor - social liberal. Thats usually what independents are - the best of both worlds.

by turnerbroadcasting 2006-04-20 12:23PM | 0 recs
Re: Pew Releases Enormous Public Survey

Hillary has my vote.

by Virginia Blogger 2006-04-20 12:25PM | 0 recs
Re: Pew Releases Enormous Public Survey

Mine too.  And HRC has THE HIGHEST rating amongst Democrats by other Demecrats.  And a 20% amongst Republicans.  Now, that is big considering people's minds have been made up about her, unlike McCain who will NOT stand up to scrutiny come 2008.  Giuliani scares me, though.  However, how is he going to win GOP primaries in states like SC?  

by jgarcia 2006-04-20 02:04PM | 0 recs
Feingold and Warner

I think it is a little early to be writing either off.  They were the only names listed who had not either run nationally once or served as First Lady.  Your premise that they are unknown to a large portion of the electorate is probably closer to the mark.  If these numbers hold in the fall of 2007 then they are in trouble.

by John Mills 2006-04-20 12:27PM | 0 recs
Re: Pew Releases Enormous Public Survey

And progressive appears nowhere on the list for Democrats.  How sad.

by Demo Dan in Dayton 2006-04-20 01:00PM | 0 recs
Re: Pew Releases Enormous Public Survey

Those who think Dems are commies and "too liberal" will never be reached. These are the Kool Aid folks. But we CAN reach those who agree with us on the issues but lack leadership.

Stop being wussies.
Stand up.
Fight back.
Talk tough.
Play to the base occasionally.

That's the key. NOT flip floping around chasing the non-existent center.

by Populism2008 2006-04-20 01:10PM | 0 recs
Re: Pew Releases Enormous Public Survey

I think we all (bloggers, blog readers) need to understand that we are not the public.  It would benefit "our side" to increase our understanding of how and where where regular people get their information about current events, and what factors are involved in influencing how they digest that information.  What do they pay attention to?  What do they tune out?

Obviously Rudi Giuliani was on TV a lot in a favorable way after 9/11, when the public was paying attention.

by davej 2006-04-20 01:12PM | 0 recs
Re: Pew Releases Enormous Public Survey

It's way too early to be picking Presidential candidates, but John Edwards' numbers look promising. His approval among Republicans will of course drop once the RWNM cranks up (EVIL TRIAL LAWYER!!!!), but at least they have work to do, and he has a populist streak that could help win back Democratic defectors and "occasional voters." Hillary and Kerry, in contrast, are already defined to the GOP base, and neither is likely to fire up the Democratic base (though Kerry's shown considerable improvement since 2004). And Biden's and Hillary's constant pandering to swing voters' inner conservatives (instead of Iraq and Iran, Hillary wants us up in arms about sexy video games and flag-burners) will undercut Democrats' GOTV efforts. Even if one of them wins, it'll be with crossover support from voters who go with down-ballot Republicans, ensuring a likely return to a GOP Congress even if the Democrats win a house this year.

Feingold (my personal favorite) might be up there with Edwards in 18 months, but for now, I'll just have to wait and hope. In any case, I can always hope for the VP slot.

On the GOP side, the poll confirms my fears about Giuliani: he'd be a formidable candidate, and a scary President. (More competent than Bush, but every bit as disrespectful of the Constitution - a very dangerous combination.) Fortunately, he's pro-choice, which probably means he won't be the nominee. But he could still be a VP candidate - I tremble in fear of a Rice-Giuliani or McCain-Giuliani ticket.

by Mathwiz 2006-04-20 01:14PM | 0 recs
One or two points from the poll

I agree that the survey is better mulled over at one's leisure.

But, these being days of instant reactions...

Firstly, the poor rating Dems give their party for standing up for traditional positions (p7): 40% saying excellent/good and 59% only fair/poor.

The GOP rates just a four point deficit (47-51) among its voters.

On the other hand, over the last year or so, the Dems have pulled back from -32 points (!), and the GOP gone out from +6. (The Dem alphabet soup would choose this spin, no doubt.)

Second, I note that (p29) GOP performance on the generic Congressional question back in 1994 (the year of facile comparison!) was very odd: in the July at 45-47; by early October, flipped to 52-40 positive; by November, their margin narrowed to 45-43.

(I'm sure there's a simple and well-known explanation. I'm afraid I wasn't paying much attention to politics at the time, though.)

Third, on the question (p33) about the parties' ability to manage the Federal government well, the GOP trail by only four points, 35-39.

In July 04, it trailed by three, 37-40.

And, despite the DeLay thing (great name recognition for the boy!) and other GOP corruption publicity, they've held the negative spread on governs in an honest and ethical way (p35) to just eight points (28-36).

(In July 04, the gap was five points less, 34-37.)

On can bring about the kind of changes the country needs, the matchup is 32-47 now, 35-46 in July 04.

Quite how these modest differences can be reconciled with the big swing in GOP fav/unfavs since June 04 (p22) - 51-40 then, 40-50 now - I'm not sure.

More mulling needed...

by skeptic06 2006-04-20 03:23PM | 0 recs
Re: Pew Releases Enormous Public Survey

How does this data fit into the Chris Matthews lovin' up Tom Delay saying that Edwards did so badly in the focus group?

Does focus groups data vary that much from polling data?

by Drama Queen 2006-04-20 11:07PM | 0 recs
Re: Republican Party one-word descriptions

So someone please tell me why Dem politicans can't go for the jugular and start calling out the Republican party for the rich greedy bastards that they are?

Why are we so afraid of the republicans saying "Class warfare!". You'd think the Dems would get the hint that if the republicans protest that strongly about this line of attack, then maybe, just maybe, it's because it's something that they know sticks.

Are we too afraid of losing our DLC base? Of offending uber rich donors? Of looking like commie pinkos?

Because those that are afraid of those things might want to go back and look at the types of speeches that FDR and Truman gave in the 30s and 40s when they described Republicans (and when Dems won elections; hint, their descriptions of the republicans rhymed with "weedy").

by adamterando 2006-04-21 04:27AM | 0 recs
Re: Pew Releases Enormous Public Survey

First thing that jumped out at me was Edwards broad appeal as well...

John Edwards was hands down my first $ choice, before HD, back in the broad and wide dem field of 2004

I departed the JE bandwagon, because his message seemed to simplistic and repetitive, and didn't hit the nerve issues of the day- (Failure to properly investigate 911; Irak)

Looks like JE wasn't trying to talk to me, JE knowing if he can just get to the final dance, I will check JE box, given the choice

Smart

by RF 2006-04-21 05:29AM | 0 recs
Re: Pew Releases Enormous Public Survey

I think the fact that the Dems don't have a strongly recognized "party leader" is a good thing.

The GOP would love to throw out Hillary's or Ted Kennedy's name to pigeonhole the Dems.

This, at least, helps to prevent that kind of rhetorical strategy from working.

by Bush Bites 2006-04-21 06:48AM | 0 recs

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