I don't think it's that running on GOP corruption is a double edged sword, it's just that it isn't enough.  Dems need to put together a strong platform so we can offer clear alternatives to the failed and corrupt conservative agenda.  It will never be enough to convince people to vote against the other guys we have to give them reasons to vote for us.

The DLC strategy of lying low and waiting for the Republicans to implode is going to depress Democratic turnout. It's as simple as that. You have to take some risks to thrive in politics. The Democrats have to do two things: push the Republicans off the cliff, and tell America how they would be different (and better).

Not every Democrat has to do everything, but every Democrat has to do something. And right now only a handful are doing anything more than testing the water with thier pinky toes.

Oh, and the really sad thing about this is that, lying low WILL probably win the Democrats the house this year, but barely, and it will not win the senate. The DLC-consultant types will call that a victory and use it to re-enforce the bad old way of compaigning. After which, the Republicans will retake the house in '08, while keeping the senate and presidency.

Chris, in my view your analysis is very wise.

It is always double-edged to have criticism be the dominant tone in any campaign in this time of widespread cynicism.   We need an equivalently strong forward-looking positive message.

Before the R collapse of this year, I didn't expect D's to really contend for Congress for a couple more cycles.  I believe we inevitably will come back....but circumstances are forcing us to come up to the plate before we're really ready.   Maybe we can punch the ball into a hole.  The home run will probably come in later years - an exceptional 2008 messenger, possibly.

I understand that turnout (135K) was lower than in the 2004 election (150K), but isn't that an improper comparison?  Shouldn't the proper comparison be to the last April special election?  Maybe the turnout was actually higher than the last special election.

Votes for demcrats are motivated by Hope, votes for Republicans are motivted by Fear.  The Corruption scandles only reduce votes for Repulicans (out of shame) but without Hope for improvement, does nothing to increase votes for Democrats.  

Politics corrupts all who touch it, the feeling goes, so really, it doesn't make much different who wins...

It's much easier to make people be afraid then it is to make them feel hopeful, but that's what Democrats need to do to win a landslide...really that's what clinton did, by talking about how politics works well, how it is an expression of our will in a positive way...how both democrats and republicans are parts of a system that is meant for Good.  

It isn't ideas that matter, it's just the idea that there is something to look forward too.  

A feel good ad campaing might do the trick.

Call me a cynic, but I don't think these results are good at all.  Obviously this is a dead red district, so objectively, Busby's performance was great.  But great isn't our goal, winning is.  And unless Republican discipline completely collapses in two months, this race is at best a toss up.  Our only hope is that Independents decide to vote with us.  Otherwise, we will be bludgeoned by blind Republican loyalty and lose 52-48.

The Precinct Level and GOTV

"Organize the whole state so that every Whig can be brought to the polls... Divide the county into small districts and appoint in each a sub-committee. Make a perfect list of all the voters and ascertain with certainty for whom they will vote,keep a constant watch on the doubtful voters and...have them talked to by those in whom they have the most confidence, and on Election Day see that every Whig is brought to the polls." -Abraham Lincoln 1/21/1840.

This is as important now as it was then. Poor Democratic turn out  is showing that the Democrats have not mastered their work at the precinct level. This does not bode well for the coming elections.  A get out the vote GOTV and precinct operation should be a year round permanent operation of the party to protect its incumbents and to prepare challenges to opposition incumbents. Bloggers in every precinct would be invaluable in coordinating and setting up these permanent year round campaigns.

There is a vast majority of voters not interested in national, state, or even local politics in a regular basis. They may be registered or not, many vote, completely uninformed, and probably mark the ballots with the first candidate named in each list. Many potential supporters do not bother to vote at all. These voters believe every politician is a crook and are not interested in framing, issues, political shenanigans, and the corruption and incompetence of our leaders.

If these voters somehow were persuaded to vote, they could be that 4-6+% difference in total votes that could win many elections. How can this be accomplished?

At the local level sort of between friends and family, "have them talked to by those in whom they have the most confidence."

Democrats need an operation that on a permanent basis, at the precinct level, identifies favorable voters, keeps them up to date about our platform, informs and persuades the undecided, and makes sure that our supporters go to the polls on Election Day.

Accomplishing this work a few months before the election does not help much since many voters have decided weeks or months before the election and worse-many vote early.

This is expensive, but it is the foundation of a successful campaign. It is the footwork and  human toil in the streets that will deliver that extra 4-6% total votes in an election. Proselytizing for a few months before the election and pouring millions in TV ads, consultants, etc., and still lose elections is not an alternative.

Forget framing, issues, or expecting the opposition to implode under the weight of its corruption and abuse of power. The base is already won. The informed are either with or against us. The battle is decided at the Precinct Level, possibly years before the election, by getting to know our voters.

It is difficult and necessary. Republicans are doing it and look how well it has worked for them. We may not like their policies but we should need to implement their strategies if we want wins for our side on election day.

Btw, Chris, congratulations on your prediction of 44% for Busby!