Datamar, is way oversampling Republicans, the reason is they are using a high voter propensity screen, which requires a vote in 2002 Governor's Race primary, Which had an extremely well contested Republican Race and no or almost no Democratic Race. When you look at from that Stand point. Busby is much closer to 47 she has in Survery USA than the Datamar.Without that cavet, it deflates hope for no fair purpose.

If I was betting money I'd say 46.

But hoping for 50!

Prove me wrong cali people and I'll gladly eat my words.

48.25%

47.8%

The Datamar polling is pretty bad, but I think that anything below a 45% is kind of a loss for us. Anything above 45% and we'll have a great chance in June.

If SUSA pins Busby's numbers at 47%, with 6% undecided, in addition to high Democratic turnout, we could win this thing right here and now.

49.5%

I think Datamar's sampling is really really heavily (R) tilted.  Also, as you mentioned, she improved a bit since the last one.  Also, the last SUSA poll had her at 47%, which is really good.  Combine that with the good partisan early voter numbers, and a nationalized phonebank effort from MoveOn, and I think Busby has a chance.

Survey Usa
Five Precent of the electorate  just isn't there.
21 of independent say they are voting for an other candidate, but none of those candidate exist or have a pulse. 2% are still undecided. This five percent is a total wild card. It also looks like there  sample under values Hispanics and Women. In almost no state do Men represent a greater percentage of the electorate then women but they do in the survey USA poll  with 51%, Busby is clocking in with 53% from Women. Bottomline, this thing is even closer 50 than that 47, would everyone stop repeating the 41% from Datamar it just makes no sense.

Screws us in this race.

I'm going to go with 52%. Someone's got to play the part of the sunny, though possibly insane optimist.

I'm going to guess 48% for Busby.

warning, amateur poll analysis: it's notable that between the two SUSA polls, Bilbray's support among independents has shriveled up to a whopping 4%. Busby is going to have to carry about 60% of independents in the general to win. it looks like Bilbray may be anathema to independents, so that's who I'm hoping will get second place.

Granted, the prevailing sentiment in the border-area district is for increased crackdowns on illegal immigration. But it's also one of the top 85 Latino CDs in the country; 12% of registered voters there are Latino.

I wouldn't assume that all Hispanics are supporters of illegal immigration.

The Democracy Corps Hispanics survey (PDF) last year had 34% saying they would discourage new immigration (legal or illegal not specified); and 41% said that illegal immigration hurts more than helps the US (Q76 and 77).

To be pollyannish I'll say 56%. However I think it's going to be closer to 46-48%.

Also could the next primary please be on the east coast so I can get to bed at a somewhat reasonable hour? If their is a run-off head there...
http://www.actblue.com/page/netrootscand idates

is 46%, though 50.0001% is not impossible.

Although it led to his downfall, Billy Mumphrey was a cockeyed optimist. I'm with Billy and I say 50.9%

Based on my own experience in 2005 CA-48 Special and the conversations I've had with her manager;

A. They've learned from 48 and had a helluva push on absentee ballots

B. They've played a strong ground game every...repeat...every day.

C. They've had massive volunteer turnout for days...maybe weeks

D. They've done a simply unparelled job fundraising/

E. The Republican are running attack ads against each other in the last 24 hours.

F. The news continues to disgust everyone.

I've got my fingers crossed for a win. Except for the John Birch types...and they are a dying breed here...even in OC...everyone disgusted with Washington. W has over a 62% disapproval rating and Congress a 66% disapproval rating.

I'll bet on the charismatic lady who ran on a platform of reform for everyone in Congress! She's worked three years for this day. Let's keep the fingers crossed and the Republican's at each others throats!

Low turnout works to Busby's favor except for the absentee vote....that we'll have to see.

47%

I say 45%.  It's a Republican District and there are LOTS of candidates.

Maybe when the race reduces to only two candidates.

I hate to sound cynical. It might have something to do with the mood I'm in today.

My prediction:

Busby- 43%
Young (the other, fringe Democrat)- 6-8%

(http://hotlineblog.nationaljournal.com/a rchives/2006/04/ca_50_the_ballo_1.html)

Sorry, but today I'm having trouble finding faith in the average voter. But I hope I'm proven wrong, and the ballot doesn't spoil things.

AnthonySF knows this race as well as anyone I've been reading and my instinct is to go with his prediction (46%) however, the immigration storm is a wildcard that could impact the race dramatically IF the people paying attention bother to vote. I think Democrats will and I think Busby's reasonable position on this issue is going to put her over the top tonight. I'll stake out 51%

Barbara Ann Radnofsky is winning the primary runoff 60-40, with half the precincts in.

It will be a moral victory.  The real wild card here in Escondido and San Marcos is the Hispanic vote. They are a huge portion of the population. If they come out and Francine wins some of our neighbors (Darryl Issa) will have had a really bad night.

The National Journal did not necessarily have it right.

In the CA-48th Special, The Registrar drew names and set the order. Then, however, the order was changed every X precinct to avoid placement advantage/disadvantge.

I don't know if this is true in San Diego County. We in the CA-48th Campaign were as suprized as anyone when we figured it out on election day.

The Ballot may not play that big a factor...but it's a different county. Not sure.

I didn't know that we didn't get the other Dem out of the race prior to the Special Election filing. I assume he's not actively campaigning. Disappointing.

The National Journal did not necessarily have it right.

In the CA-48th Special, The Registrar drew names and set the order. Then, however, the order was changed every X precinct to avoid placement advantage/disadvantge.

I don't know if this is true in San Diego County. We in the CA-48th Campaign were as suprized as anyone when we figured it out on election day.

The Ballot may not play that big a factor...but it's a different county. Not sure.

I didn't know that we didn't get the other Dem out of the race prior to the Special Election filing. I assume he's not actively campaigning. Disappointing.

high enough to claim big MO, but not enough to get over the hump.

44.9%

I hope you all are laughing at me by the end of the night, though.

I've never seen any discussion of just what happens after this election.

The election is to pick someone to fill the remainder of Cunningham's term.  If today's election doesn't produce a winner, the highest candidate from each party (Busby and some Republican) go to a runoff on June 6, right?

So what happens with the regular 2006 election for that seat?  Normally (if Cunningham hadn't resigned), we'd be having a primary election for that seat on June 6.  Are we going to have a Busby/whoever runoff simultaneously with the regular primary?  Or is there going to be yet another special election to act as a primary, followed by the regular election in November?

Have they even thought about this?

My wife and I both voted this afternoon in Rancho Penasquitos (yes, we both voted for Busby).  When I signed in, mine was the only signature on that page of the signup sheet; the rest of the page was blank (implying either a very low turnout, or a lot of people planning to vote in the evening).

I was a bit shocked when I saw a Diebold touchscreen machine in the polling place.  It turns out it's being used for disabled voters; we used the same hand-marked optical-scan paper ballots we used in the last election.  But one of the volunteers told us that they're using the optical-scan ballots only for this election and the next one, and switching to touchscreen machines starting in (I think) November.

If this is true, we're going to file for permanent absentee ballots, and hand-deliver them to the polling place on election day.  I don't know why the Secretary of State approved those infernal machines.

The Registrar of Voters site has an Election Results link. It's all zeros so far. (It doesn't display in Opera, but it does show up in Firefox; I haven't tried other browsers.)

I was polled by Datamar. Busby's name was the last one asked. If they didn't rotate names, their results are even more skewed than the validity ruining population from which the sample was drawn. Regardless, we'll all know soon the results of the counting (notice I didn't say, "of the voting"?

The moveon pac "call from all over" system gave instructions not to do the script if the person answering spoke Spanish, with nothing said about Spanish speaking volunteers, which I thought was very wrong-headed.