CA-50 Results Thread
by Chris Bowers, Tue Apr 11, 2006 at 06:51:20 PM EDT
Here it is--another election night. I'll be up as long as it takes until the result is clear, or I pass out.
Here is the page I will be looking at to monitor results. If you have other sites to check, let me know in the comments. I will also be closely watching the always awesome Swing State Project and San Diego Politics blog.
I am guessing 45% for Busby, with Roach as the Republican nominee. Since the polls don't close for a few minutes, feel free to take up the interim posting your guesses in the comments.
The most recent results will be at the top. Also, this is my 2,001st post here at MyDD, so let's hope that this is the post where we make contact with victory.
Here is the page I will be looking at to monitor results. If you have other sites to check, let me know in the comments. I will also be closely watching the always awesome Swing State Project and San Diego Politics blog.
I am guessing 45% for Busby, with Roach as the Republican nominee. Since the polls don't close for a few minutes, feel free to take up the interim posting your guesses in the comments.
The most recent results will be at the top. Also, this is my 2,001st post here at MyDD, so let's hope that this is the post where we make contact with victory.
- The new results thread can be found directly above this one.
- Finally, more returns. With 99 of 445 precincts, Busby has risen to 42.88%, and Bilbray (15.10%) has put some distance on Roach (13.93%).
- OK, this is getting kind of ridiculous. I have to do things tomorrow. Nothing new has come in. Busby still has 42.19%. Bilbray, ins econd place, has 14.59%. Let me say that given a result like that, I have a very difficult time believing any spin that Busby isn't in the driver's seat here. At that rate, she needs a little less than 20% of the "other" vote to win in June, while either Bilbray or Roach would need over 80%. Dems and Inds make up around 30% of the "other" vote. It is a crude sketch, but I like the situation.
- Kos has a great post up where he worries about turnout and Democratic enthusiasm. Worth a read. Turnout might very well be low here (around 120K, compared to 160K in 2002). Then again, special elections like this are well known for very low tunrout, so it might not be a big deal at all. Or it might be.
- From Trial Mix, Christine Pelosi writes up Busby's speech on the evening:"Today the voters had a choice. And as we go on to June we will know that this district voted for change in Washington!
"We exceeded our Democratic registration by over 50 percent - our message resonated not just with Democrats but with Republicans and Independents who are telling us to keep giving our message -- and to take this message to Washington in June.
"No one said it would be easy - last time they said it was impossible - but we beat the registration and we have twice as many votes as the next person tonight.
"80 percent of the voters today voted for a candidate for change. Going into June, I will be the candidate for change.
"This is a victory for all of us who said "I won't take it anymore!" We are not alone. We can stand up high for what we believe in. We can walk and talk and put our energy into what we believe in. We will not stop until we win!"
"The voters have voted for change. They want to hear that we are going to hold Members of Congress to the same standards that they hold themselves.
"They understand that the Medicare bill was a gift to the prescription drug companies; that the travesty of an energy bill was given to the oil companies, and that the bankruptcy bill was gift wrapped with a bow to the credit card companies -- and we are going to repeat that message until they understand there is only one candidate in this race going to Washington to change things!" - OK, somehting else has finally come in. With 33 of 445 precincts in, Busby has 42.19%, and Bilbray still leads Roach 14.59% to 14.02%.
- Geez, nothing is happening. Come on. I am getting a little tired.
- I should also add that you guys have done a kick-ass job for Francine, and even though only 1% of the vote is in, I feel very confident about this race right now. It is looking like delayed satisfaction, but really, the results so far are quite good. The absolute upper end of absentee ballot potential was 43%, and Francince got 42.23%. That is really, really good. Well done! I am still expecting her vote % to rise on the totals from today come in.
- I see that several thousand people are reading MyDD right now. I would like to remind them that there will be a June 6th run-off in this race, and Francine Busby will continue to need your support. She looks very good--she is equal to the top four Republicans combined, but this is still a red district, and a win will not come easy. You can contribute to her campaign here, and you can volunteer for her campaign here.
- Adding onto the comments from below, I should note that from absentee voting, the district has already swung 6% for Busby from 2004. We would probably win the House with that swing nationwide.
- I should note that the early results seem to have included the absentee results. Busby already has 27,332 votes, Bilbray has 9,159 votes, and Roach has 9,011 votes. Thus, even though only 1% of precincts have reported, perhaps half (or more) of all votes have already come in. This is a good result for Busby from absentee voting--it confirms the poll results and the projections I made over the weekend. I expect Busby's % to rise as the night goes on, but 50% looks unlikely. I feel confident in the 44% target I was looking for. The Republican race is clearly down to Bilbray and Roach.
- Super early results. With 4 of 445 precincts reporting, Busby has 42.23%, and Bilbray (14.15%) is narrowly ahead of Roach (13.92%).
- In other election news tonight, Barbara Ann Radnofsky easily won the run-off in Texas to challenge Hutchinson. Her chances in the general are not good at all, but I salute her and her campaign. Well done! It also reminds me how much more exciting tonight could have been, if Ciro had kept Cuellar under 50% last month.
Tags: election results (all tags)
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