Building a Real House Majority, Part I

By the most often used measure of control, Democrats currently need to take fifteen seats in the House of Representative in order to gain a majority. Fifteen more seats would give Democrats control over House leadership positions, House committees and subcommittee chairs, and also subpoena power. However, as Democrats like Joe Lieberman and Bruce Reed are able to consistently remind us, that is not the only type of control over the House of Representatives. Not only would Bush remaining President make it difficult, if not impossible, for a Democratic House to pass any meaningful, progressive legislation into law, there are many Democrats who would make that task quite difficult.

There is another type of control Democrats should be shooting for in November and beyond: a voting majority for the majority Democratic position on important pieces of legislation. After all, our long term goal is not only for the Democratic Party to be in control, but for the ideas and issues for which the majority of the Democratic Party stands to be in control. Before we figure out how to make that happen, we first need to figure out what than would even mean. If I may be so bold, I have the answer in the extended entry.
Part I: How Democrats and Republicans Are Different

In 2005, there were twenty-eight votes on actual pieces of legislation where the majority position among Democrats in the House was different from the majority position among Republicans in the House. In essence, those twenty-eight votes provide the answer to the age-old question: how are Republicans different from Democrats? Well, here is how: That is how Democrats are different than Republicans, or at least how the majority of Democrats in the House were different than the majority of Republicans in the House in 2005. In all of these votes, the majority Democratic position (102 or more Democratic votes) was different than the majority Republican position (117 or more Republican votes). Looking at this litany of important differences makes any left-wing third party movements of the past, some of which I was involved with during my youth, seem foolish and uninformed. Almost all complaints lodged against the Democratic Party from the left were actually only applicable against a minority of the Democratic Party. No differences between the two parties, yeah right.

I list all of these pieces of legislation here not only to demonstrate the differences between the two parties, but also to lead toward another discussion I intend to have later today. There is another type of control at stake in congress besides control of subpoena power, committees, and leadership positions. Beyond this legal and leadership control, there is legislative voting control, which is a type of control not determined simply by which party has more members in the House of Representatives. This type of control is also determined by the degree to which Democratic and Republican members of the House are loyal to the majority position of their party when it comes to passing actual legislation. As I will show later today, in order to take legislative voting control, where the majority Democratic position, not just the Democratic Party, is in the majority in Congress, Democrats will need a lot more than 218 seats this November.

Tags: 28 House Votes, Building a Real House Majority, Chris Bowers, Congressional Loyalty, Democrats, House 2006, Republicans (all tags)

Comments

33 Comments

But what about...

legislation where majorities from both parties voted the same, but which were not in alignment with progressive principles?

That is, were there pieces of legislation that progressives would want to see passed, but where a majority of Democrats sided with the majority of Republicans?

Votes such as this would call for a left-wing third party. The question is, where there any such votes, and if so, how many and of what signficance?

(Yes, yes I should probably go dig up the answer myself -- just thought I'd throw it out there.)

by LiberalFromPA 2006-04-10 09:09AM | 0 recs
Re: But what about...
No such votes. As you can see, eveyr major pice of legislation in 2005 is listed up there. The Terry Schiavo thing wasn't lsited because the majority of Demcorats did not vote at all.
by Chris Bowers 2006-04-10 09:37AM | 0 recs
Thanks n/t

by LiberalFromPA 2006-04-10 09:58AM | 0 recs
Re: But what about...

No such votes?  There sure were in the 1990s and during Bush's first term.  Plenty of them.  Digital Millennium Copyright Act?  Crime Bill?  NAFTA?  Telecommunications Act?  Patriot Act?

by ACSR 2006-04-11 04:21AM | 0 recs
Re: But what about...

I know this thread has ceased to be.

But - I agree. Chris's conclusion doesn't follow from his evidence.

Since this is the first of a series - hopefully, we'll get to examine the point in more detail, because it's certainly important.

by skeptic06 2006-04-11 07:02AM | 0 recs
Some conservatives can stay, others must go

In some districts, and some states, I can recognize the value of having moderate and conservative Democratic representatives. For example, anyone more liberal than Ben Nelson would probably have trouble holding their seat in Nebraska, and he does more accurately represent the views of his constituents.

On the other hand, it does us very little good to have conservatives in places where a liberal can get elected. I might actually be getting to the point of believing that it might be better if Santorum wins in PA. Casey hasn't given us a reason to believe that he would have a significantly different voting record (except on minimum wage, wooooo doggie).

In a state which clearly disagrees with and dislikes Rick Santorum, I have a hard time understanding how it can possibly make sense to run a conservative. If you're pro-choice or dislike the Iraq war, why should you get out and vote?

If Rahm Emmanuel and his ilk have their way, we'll we'll be stuck with two anti-choice, pro-war parties.

by fwiffo 2006-04-10 09:22AM | 0 recs
Re: Some conservatives can stay, others must go

I'm not sure why you view the minimum wage as an inconsequential issue.  Raising the minimum wage is not only critical to helping minimum wage earners, but also to enhancing the bargaining power of unions, which makes the issue important for a lot of people.  Moreover, it seems to be a voting issue for a lot of folks who often feel left out of the Democratic Party when a lot of the party takes a socially liberal, fiscally conservative stance.  Bringing people who do care about the minimum wage into the Democratic coalition is really, really important going forward in order to sustain wins that Dems make this November.

by DanM 2006-04-10 10:56AM | 0 recs
Re: Some conservatives can stay, others must go

I don't really mean to pooh-pooh the minimum wage as an issue per se.  It's just that, so far as I've heard, it's the only liberal position he's taken on anything. It's like his one token issue to prove he's a Democrat.

Raising the minimum wage is a good idea, and might even get a few votes, but a lot of people are gonna have a hard time dragging themselves to the polls if that's the only thing that materially separates him from Santorum.  What good is it going to be if we have a majority of Dems but they're still voting in favor of more Iraq-type wars and against reproductive rights?

by fwiffo 2006-04-10 11:36AM | 0 recs
Re: Some conservatives can stay, others must go
Just to add my two cents on the minimum wage issue.  I think this only becomes an issue for for Congressional Democrats when they need to "say" something progressive but never do anything about it.
The Dems have had the power to increase and even index the minimum wage in the past and have never taken the plunge.  I'll belive they have finally gotten religion when I see a mandatory increase of fifty cents every other year for ten years and a COLA increase every three years there after.  Something you are never gonna see because our politicians can talk the talk but don't walk the walk.
by Demo Dan in Dayton 2006-04-10 12:07PM | 0 recs
Re: Some conservatives can stay, others must go

Casey is definitely not perfect, but he is more liberal than Santorum on a lot of issues in addition to the minimum wage.  For example:

1.  Family Planning -- He's antichoice, which sucks, but he is in favor of family planning which Santorum is not.  For me, that makes a big difference as I can respect - even if I disagree with - anti-choice folks that actually DO want to prevent abortions from occurring.

2.  Healthcare -- Casey isn't for nationalized healthcare, but he would extend coverage and incrementally work towards full coverage.  Again, not perfect but a hell of a lot better than Santorum and a difference that would improve real people's lives.

3.  Social Security -- he wants to "fix it" rather than privatize it, which I take to mean some kind of combination of benefit trimming and tax raising.  This idea may not be super popular amongst some Dems, but ensuring that the program is solvent and perhaps cutting the benefits of seniors who are Millionaires makes sense to me.  Santorum, obviously, would privatize SS.

4.  Budget Issues Generally -- Unlike Santorum, would vote to stop Congress' ridiculous spending and go back to a pay as you go system.  Again, this is big difference from my perspective.

Again, far from perfect but these are some significant differences.  

by HSTruman 2006-04-10 12:15PM | 0 recs
Re: Some conservatives can stay, others must go

I think Casey would also be much better on fair trade.  In summary, I think Casey will be a very strong labor-economics progressive, even though he will be moderate to conservative on social and defense policies.

I wish he was a better rounded progressive.  But I still think he is the best "horse to ride" in PA.

by Andy Katz 2006-04-10 12:45PM | 0 recs
Re: Some conservatives can stay, others must go

It is true that a lot of people, especially in the Philly suburbs, may have trouble bringing themselves out to vote for a candidate who is not particularly progressive.  However, Casey may be able to bring out some more rural voters who, in fact, are not progressive, but who do support worker rights.  Also, the great House candidates that we DO have (Lois Murphy, Chris Carney, Patrick Murphy, etc.) may get people to the polls, where they'll vote for Casey simply because he's not Santorum.

I realize that I am willing to hold my nose on Casey longer than most people.  But, I still have some vague sense that he will actually work to support labor rights in other ways besides just the minimum wage.  If he gets elected and doesn't do this, well then, he just plain sucks across the  board.  But, in that event, a primary challenge or something to that effect is possible.  

At this point, taking the Senate seems plausible to me (PA, RI, MT, OH, AZ, TN), which would give us a lot of people like Kennedy and Leahy in leadership positions.  That, combined with the fact that Casey shows some signs of advocating for working class people, makes supporting him make sense.

by DanM 2006-04-10 12:34PM | 0 recs
Re: Some conservatives can stay, others must go

Rahn Emmanuel had nothing to do with Casey running.  Governor Ed Rendell recommended Casey to Chuck Schumer, who is in charge of the DSSC and thus recruitment of candidates for the Senate.  Rendell thought Casey was electable.  He persuaded Schumer.  Casey was not foisted on PA by some DC cabal.

by Mimikatz 2006-04-10 12:49PM | 0 recs
Re: Some conservatives can stay, others must go

Not to mention the fact that the Casey family is beloved in Pa.  We're not talking about the Dem leadership parachuting someone into the State without ties to Pa politics...

by HSTruman 2006-04-10 01:10PM | 0 recs
Chris: (almost) all the URLs are all dead!

A very handy list.

Unfortunately, you've mostly used temporary THOMAS links which have now expired!

The clerk.house.gov links to the actual roll calls are really what you wanted (and what you've given for some of the RCs). They're durable.

Perhaps one of your interns could fix the URLs. (Kidding.)

by skeptic06 2006-04-10 09:23AM | 0 recs
Re: Building a Real House Majority, Part I

Great idea for analysis, comparing the majority wills from both parties in contrast to stake out what it really means to be a democrat versus republican in the mainstream of both parties, not the centre fringes and overlap.

I, for one, was surprised to learn that a majority of congressional democrats voted against the Iraq war.  yes, the Senate was controlled by the Democrats at the time, but it only took a small number of Democratic senators voting for it, along with the republicans, to pass it.

As I recall, even then a majority of senate Dems voted no.

In the house it was an overwhelming no from House Dems.  

Yet Democrats are held equally to account for the Iraq debacle in some eyes.  I think this is because so many of the most prominent dems did vote for it, so they have a hard time declaiming it now (I doubt Republicans in their position would feel so constrained, they have no qualms about hypocrisy - which is heartening in a way, that democrats generally do stive to avoid hypocrisy, even at political cost).

The Patriot Act is the only major vote I can think of where large majorities of democrats (esp in the Senate) voted for it.

As for any of these things being cause for a third party I say this:

Third parties have the luxury of being totally virtuous because they have no power.  Put any third party into office, and they will behave much like the democrats (in the long run).  The pressures of politics and getting reelected, of bribery, of phoney-progressives voting against the common good will affect them too.  If the Green party ran congress when Joe Lieberman decided to get into politics, don't you think he would have joined them?  The party in power will always attract those that merely want power and will mouth the right words in order to get it.

Unless someone can design a third party has built in mechanisms to immunize their politicians from such pressures systemically (and that such means do not cause even more serious problems), I would be very skeptical of the high hopes anyone has for a third party (putting aside the practical problems of forming a viable third party without merely splitting the existing progressive vote and giving the republicans a permanent majority...).

by scientician 2006-04-10 09:25AM | 0 recs
Iraq war vote

In the Senate, only 23 Democrats voted against the Iraq war, which was a slim minority (the Senate was 50-50 counting Jeffords as a Dem).  In the house, a major revolt against the party leadership, led by the progressive caucus, carried about 2/3 of House Democrats.

As Howard Dean so astutely built his early campaign around, the dynamic of the situation was not that "Democrats" supported the Iraq war, but that the Democratic leadership supported it while most Democrats opposed it ... leading to very justified anger against the party leadership.  That's the attitude I think you're referring to when you say Democrats are blamed for the Iraq war.  The fact that a majority of House Democrats voted against their leadership on this one actually reinforces that story, rather than undermines it.

by cos 2006-04-10 10:37AM | 0 recs
How did you identify the votes?

While I'm here...

Is this a CQ list or something? Surely you didn't go through all the RCVs by hand?

Or did you slap the RC details on a spreadsheet?

Just curious for personal reasons...

by skeptic06 2006-04-10 09:27AM | 0 recs
Uh oh - the other side of the coin

I'm a sucker for this stuff, so I've taken a squint at one or two of these RCs.

Working backwards, the second vote (#661 on passage of HR 4437) gives a score of 239-182, R:203-17, D:36-4.

Even with my rudimentary mental arithmetic, that means that, discounting catch and release, the bill would not have passed without Dem votes!

If you flip the renegade Dems, you get a score of 203-218, a margin of loss of 15 votes.

To me. that's the test of Dem discipline. Basically, the Dems are furniture in the House until at least (depending on no votes) 15 or so GOP decide to vote against their party.

Then the Dems are in business. They can force a GOP defeat. (Subject to GOP catch and release.)

A significant cohort of House Dems seem to work not so much on catch and release, more like GOP come to poppa.

by skeptic06 2006-04-10 09:43AM | 0 recs
OK - here's another one

Moving along to #635 (on passage of HR 2830), we get 224-132, R:224-1, D:70-130.

In this case, no chance of the Dems defeating the bill.

But - 35% of Dems voting supporting the GOP?

Two ways of looking at it: Pelosi authorized a 'conscience' vote, given that her count showed their was no possibility of killing the bill. (It's a better line than that nonsense about the Slaughter report and the Murtha Iraq plan, at least!)

Or else she requested party unity and got a Bronx cheer in reply from a third of her troops.

Either way, it's not what I would conceive of as a party-line vote for the Dems.

by skeptic06 2006-04-10 09:52AM | 0 recs
Re: OK - here's another one

This is fine, but isn't is just shouting at the wind to expect party unity among democrats?  The name "Democratic" party is not just some random lable, by its very nature the party will be fractous and disharmonous.

The real trick, is to find ways to make that work for us, instead of against.  We won't beat the GOP by out goose-stepping them.

by scientician 2006-04-10 10:12AM | 0 recs
Are you sure?

I'm not inclined to check right now - but I'm pretty sure that the word Democratic was not applied to the party on account of its vibrant internal debates and letting a thousand flowers bloom.

I agree: neither parties are ideologically coherent. The GOP keep it together by being strictly non-reality-based.

(That less government, lower taxes slogan, for instance.)

The Dems benefited from the Great Depression and the JFK assassination to produce temporary unity on liberal programs. With no such exogenous pressure now, fat chance!

There should be stuff Dems of all ideologies can agree on: drastic reduction in corporate welfare, for instance. That's not ideological, that's just money-grubbing.

And now a word from the Senator from MBNA. No, not all of you at once...!

(On balance,I think K Street's money mart will be safe with your 2006 Congressional Dems, somehow.)

Still, we've got the Hamilton Project to sort things out now...

by skeptic06 2006-04-10 10:38AM | 0 recs
Re: OK - here's another one

I mean no disrespect to you scientician but I hate that type of analysis-the type that says Democrats by nature can not be unified.  To me, that is BS.  If we want to win elections, and govern well once we get majorities, we need political representatives that will check their egos just a bit and cooperate to further a democratic/progressive agenda.

by Andy Katz 2006-04-10 12:50PM | 0 recs
Re: OK - here's another one

Problem is, the electorate skews distinctly conservative.

Now, it's proven that a 'red state' will elect a Dem - take Ben Nelson in NE - who will be much more liberal than his GOP opponent.

But the Dem will have to demonstrate his sympathy with the red state's conservative bent by opposing the Dem line fairly regularly.

The tendency would be, I think (this all needs proper work done on it) that, the larger the Dem contingent in the House, say, the more liberal the average rep will be. But the more conserative the average Dem rep will be.

In other words, my hypothesis is that, on universal health care, say, even if 100% of Dem House candidates were elected in November, UHC wouldn't pass the House, because the extra Dem reps would mostly be moderates in red states who would feel obliged to oppose it to save their seats in 08.

by skeptic06 2006-04-10 01:14PM | 0 recs
your logic is flawed

if we have a majority, we control what things come up for votes.  therefore, if we control what is coming up for votes, we are more likely to bring up things that split the REPUBLICANS and keep dems united, things that dont get through on a republican watch. For instance, if democrats are running on idea X, that will only get voted on if we win. So if we win, we will have a 100 % positive vote.  However, the moderates in the middle are also willing to vote for idea Y, that republicans have.  I bet you, that suddenly if we took power, a lot of unity scores from red state republicans would go way up because they suddenly will be voting on things that they can support, and there wont be republicans putting wedge issues in there that they will have to vote for because that is what is coming up for a vote.

by yomoma2424 2006-04-10 09:55AM | 0 recs
Re: your logic is flawed
We will have to wait and see who the Dem leadership will be after 2006 in order to know that for certain.
by Chris Bowers 2006-04-10 10:07AM | 0 recs
And again...

Working up the list - so far, we've only had two what I'd call solid party votes, 670 and 628.

Vote #627 (on agreement to the conference report on HR 3199) gives the same pattern as #661: 251-174, R:207-18, D:44-155.

That is, flip the renegade Dems, the vote fails 207-218.

Factor this in: if GOP managers could have been sure of 44 Dem votes for, they could have let 56 GOP vote against and still won the vote!

(Which would have turned out 213-212, R:169-56, D:44-155; Bernie Sanders, of course, is always on the side of the angels (or the Dems, at least!). Isn't he?)

by skeptic06 2006-04-10 10:25AM | 0 recs
Re: Building a Real House Majority, Part I

1) Not one piece of progressive legislation up there for Democrats to show really which side they're one.

2) A few real important bills (Cafta, Patriot Act) wouldn't have gotten out of the House without Democratic support.

On balance, the Dems are clearly better than the GOP, but this is a Balance Sheet which leaves out many account analyses.

by redstar66 2006-04-10 01:00PM | 0 recs
Re: Building a Real House Majority, Part I

I agree.

I think Chris is quite right to say that

There is another type of control Democrats should be shooting for in November and beyond: a voting majority for the majority Democratic position on important pieces of legislation. After all, our long term goal is not only for the Democratic Party to be in control, but for the ideas and issues for which the majority of the Democratic Party stands to be in control

and that we ought to be considering the point.

But I don't think his analysis helps much in determining the likely size and composition of that voting majority for the majority Democratic position on important pieces of legislation.

[Of course, the first majority refers to MCs in House and Senate, while the second refers to Dem members/voters/whatever. Defining terms important here!]

Forecasting what sort of Dem party it would be that, for instance, controlled the House in the 110th is a very important preliminary to devising a Dem program for the House.

My sense would be that, the larger the Dem House party, the more the marginal Dem rep would skew moderate, because he would in most cases be representing a red district.

So that a party of 250 Dem reps would be considerably more moderate on average than the current couple of hundred.

by skeptic06 2006-04-10 01:29PM | 0 recs
Re: Building a Real House Majority, Part I

Is true indeed what you say.

But it doesn't start turning our way until we take the message to the Red States and message it simply, no frills, no arrogance, with a values message. And there are Democrats capable of doing that. Wellstone comes to mind - asn't just lefties who voted for him.

Hackett sounded like just such a candidate was well.

Which is why the Dem leadership turned on him. All about control. They don't give a damn about moving the needle, this is all about control.

And guess what, the needle won't move. It's only been moving in one direction for thirty years, and it's rightward.

What the Dems don't get is that THAT is their number one failure. You don't just pull progressive majorities out of your ass. You have to say what you're going to do, actually believe in it, have equity and justice as the underlying principle, and you have to deliver.

Else you're just facilitating the rightward drift, the DLC and "New Democrat" legacy.

by redstar66 2006-04-10 01:50PM | 0 recs
15 votes is not enough for control

Why?

Because there are Blue Dog Democrats who could either be lured to switch parties or to vote for a Republican as Speaker.  I can think of 3-4 off the bat, the usual Southern faction of the party.  There is Henry Cuellar of Texas, Bud Cramer of Alabama,  Jim Marshall OF Georgia, Gene Taylor of Miss. and Collin Petersen of Minn.  

Link here. They are amongst the most conservative Dems in the House. The National Journal's yearly rankings.  

http://nationaljournal.com/voteratings/h ouse/cons.htm?o1=con_composite&o2=de sc#vr

The Repubs promise them really great committee assignments, even chairmanships and lots of pork.  We need at least 20 or more seats to make sure that the vote for Speaker means it's Nancy Pelosi and not Hastert.

by debcoop 2006-04-10 02:01PM | 0 recs
Re: Building a Real House Majority, Part I

The Republicans should have gained control of the California Assembly in 1994, but Willie Brown induced one liberal Republican after another to defect, allowing him to keep control for most of the session.  Something like that could happen if the Democrats win the House by one or two districts.  From what I know of Cuellar, he is very likely to switch if the election for Speaker came down to one or two votes.  Now the closest thing there is to a Republican version of Willie Brown just resigned, but the point is that the Democrats really need more than fifteen seats.

Historically, liberals (or "progressives" only controlled the House during the New Deal era, and after the 1964 election.  It isn't a coincidence that so many major pieces of progressive legislation passed in that time.  At all other times, the Democrats organized the House with the help of "yellow dog" Southern Democrats, who were more conservative on most issues than most Republicans.

There are only a handful of genuine yellow dogs left, but there are about two dozen Democratic Congressmen who represent districts that Bush won by a considerable margin, and who have to deviate from the leadership fairly often.  In the end, its not just about winning districts, you have to change the attitudes of the voters.

by Michels 2006-04-10 07:38PM | 0 recs
Uniformity in Food Act -- 4167

This is a handy list I've saved for reference.  Tx.

A bill that distinguishes not only Dems. from Repubs, but also the Democrats who vote like Dems -- and those who vote for the rich..

HR 4167 -- Uniformity in Food Act.  

It outlaws state food safety notifications. So, state's can't put their own labels on foods.  So all the behemoth food companies need to do is lobby the federal government for lax labels -- they no longer have to work on the state level.  States are prohibited from communicating with consumers.  Don't that just beat all.

"No State or political subdivision of a State may, directly or indirectly, establish or continue in effect under any authority any notification requirement for a food that provides for a warning concerning the safety of the food, or any component or package of the food, unless such a notification requirement has been prescribed under the authority of this Act and the State or political subdivision notification requirement is identical to the notification requirement prescribed under the authority of this Act."

Look it up in Thomas (thomas.loc.gov).  It's outrageous.

by Noemie Maxwell 2006-04-12 08:07PM | 0 recs

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