First, from Gallup (emphasis mine):The latest CNN/USA Today/Gallup poll, conducted Feb. 28 to March 1, finds the Democrats holding a substantial lead over the Republicans as the party more registered voters currently support in this fall's elections for Congress. More than half of registered voters (53%) favor the Democratic candidate for the U.S. House in their district; only 39% favor the Republican.

Gallup's recent trends on this "generic ballot" question -- from October 2005 through early February 2006 -- found a smaller six- to seven-point lead for the Democrats. However, the current 14-point Democratic lead is similar to a 12-point Democratic lead recorded last August. It is also among the highest seen since the Republicans came into power more than a decade ago.Next, from the front-page of the Washington Post:Democrats Struggle To Seize Opportunity
Amid GOP Troubles, No Unified Message
By Shailagh Murray and Charles Babington
Washington Post Staff Writers
Tuesday, March 7, 2006; Page A01

News about GOP political corruption, inept hurricane response and chaos in Iraq has lifted Democrats' hopes of winning control of Congress this fall. But seizing the opportunity has not been easy, as they found when they tried to unveil an agenda of their own. So, according to Gallup, Democrats are currently in their best position ever to retake the House of Representatives. Yet, despite this, for some reason we are subjected to front-page stories from the Washington Post about how we are failing to seize the opportunity.

I have a question for Murray and Babbington: how large does our lead in the polls have to be before we are "seizing the opportunity?" 20 points? 40?

The truth is that at this moment, there are two major congressional primaries taking place down in Texas, one on the Republican side, and one on the Democratic side. The Democratic primary, in TX-28, is hotly contested by two candidates (with a decent effort from a third), all of whom are in the district as we speak, running strong campaigns based almost entirely on ideas, and receiving loads of activist support from a variety of outside groups. Further, there isn't even a Republican challenger for the winner of this primary to face in November. Republicans were too scared to even run a candidate here.

By contrast, in the Republican primary in TX-22, the leading candidate, Tom DeLay, is spending the day in Washington with lobbyists because he is too afraid to actually go meet the voters in his district.

In this environment, you tell me who is scared of the upcoming elections. You tell me who is seizing an opportunity, and who is hiding under a pile of lobbyist's coats hoping everything will somehow magically get better. Right now, Republicans are too weak to face the voters, but that the Washington Post felt obligated to run a front-page story saying otherwise was the easiest prediction ever.