Beltway Dorks Miss the Larger Story: Democrats Are Kicking Ass

From the DLCC:

In a series of special elections at the state legislative level, Democrats across the country have exceeded projected Democratic performance. In some cases, these Democratic legislative candidates have performed almost 20 points beyond what was expected. In addition to those victories outlined below, Democrats also won special elections in Mississippi and New Hampshire in 2005. Democrats were successful in all of these contests because they emphasized their connections to their districts and localized the debate.

"Democratic candidates have surpassed expected Democratic performance in many districts, achieving major upsets in traditionally Republican seats," said Michael Davies, Executive Director of the Democratic Legislative Campaign Committee. "State legislatures will be a battleground in 2006."

This includes seats in Texas, Kentucky, Missouri, Virginia, and Minnesota.  As Chris already noted, Democrats have opened up a massive generic Congressional lead.  What will it take to prove that Democrats are in fact doing really really well?  As Chris notes:

The truth is that at this moment, there are two major congressional primaries taking place down in Texas, one on the Republican side, and one on the Democratic side. The Democratic primary, in TX-28, is hotly contested by two candidates (with a decent effort from a third), all of whom are in the district as we speak, running strong campaigns based almost entirely on ideas, and receiving loads of activist support from a variety of outside groups. Further, there isn't even a Republican challenger for the winner of this primary to face in November. Republicans were too scared to even run a candidate here.

By contrast, in the Republican primary in TX-22, the leading candidate, Tom DeLay, is spending the day in Washington with lobbyists because he is too afraid to actually go meet the voters in his district.

In this environment, you tell me who is scared of the upcoming elections. You tell me who is seizing an opportunity, and who is hiding under a pile of lobbyist's coats hoping everything will somehow magically get better. Right now, Republicans are too weak to face the voters, but that the Washington Post felt obligated to run a front-page story saying otherwise was the easiest prediction ever.

Not only that, but Democrats have consistently won at the state level throughout 2005 and 2006, in traditionally Republican areas.  But since Adam Nagourney doesn't seem to be talking to actual Democrats on the ground, he misses the story and goes for DC groupthink instead.

Tags: Adam Nagourney, Democrats, DLCC, State legistators (all tags)

Comments

13 Comments

Re: Beltway Dorks Miss the Larger Story: Democrats

Great post guys! Andrea at DMIblog wrote about some problems with Nagourney's political "reporting" on our blog yesterday.
She wrote

...my larger point is that political reporters of Nagourney's ilk are far too comfortable making public pronouncements on the state of politics that are unfounded but that have actual repercussions for the way in which the rest of the country view the dynamics at hand. Reporting that is really armchair analysis is dangerous, especially when it appears on the front page. All of a sudden we are engaged in a debate about the difference between the themes of Medicare and cronyism instead of focused on a conversation about what people are really concerned with and how their representatives are or are not addressing those concerns.

This was one of the core issues we were raising with our Media Accountability and the '05 Elections panel back in November.

One of the reasons we started the DMIBlog in the first place was to foster a debate on public policy that focuses on the content and impact of policy for a change.

Reporting that just recycles "conventional wisdom" without seeking, you know, wisdom, has come to crisis levels. It leads to horserace coverage of elections that leave the public ignorant of the policy issues they will be deciding on.

read her post here

by DMIer 2006-03-07 10:32AM | 0 recs
Re: Beltway Dorks Miss the Larger Story: Democrats

I linked to that post on my last post.

by Matt Stoller 2006-03-07 10:55AM | 0 recs
Re: Beltway Dorks Miss the Larger Story: Democrats

That will teach me to comment before I've read the whole front page. Thanks!

by DMIer 2006-03-07 12:34PM | 0 recs
Nice Post

"We have to address the fact that the president has broken the law." -- Senator Russ Feingold

by Landsurveyor 2006-03-07 10:35AM | 0 recs
Re: Nice Post

Post this one more time and you are banned.

by Matt Stoller 2006-03-07 10:54AM | 0 recs
More on Democratic Legislative Victories

Democrats also picked up seats at the state legislative level in 2004--gaining 45 seats and moving 10 legislative chambers to Democratic control.  In fact, currently, there are more Democratic state legislators than Republican state legislators with Democrats controlling 3,663 seats vs. the Republicans' 3,639 seats.

by laurenspangler 2006-03-07 11:02AM | 0 recs
Re: More on Democratic Legislative Victories

And it's control of the state legislatures and what seems to be our good chances of ending up in control of the majority of governors mansions this year that's going to continue to fuel the Democratic party's efforts to use the states as incubators and proving grounds for progressive initiatives.

Amazing how things have turned upside down with Democrats getting things done in the states and Republicans getting things done at the federal level. There's already been a few arguments from Democrats in favor of states rights ie. OR and euthanasia; CA and medical marijuana and higher emissions standards than mandated by federal regulations. That's likely to increase with the coalition of (primarly blue) states coming together to pass similar emission standards laws. We live in interesting times.

by Quinton 2006-03-07 02:48PM | 0 recs
Re: Beltway Dorks Miss the Larger Story: Democrats

The great thing coming here is the general tendency to get data and analysis, rather than a pep rally.

This sounds to me like a pep rally.

For example, I don't know, but I'd not be surprised to learn that US House special elections are not a terribly reliable guide to the parties' overall performance at the subsequent general.

Presumably there've been studies.

And, again, I'd be inclined a priori to doubt the predictive value of generic House polls in principle, and this far out from the general.

Again, presumably there've been studies.

As for AdNag's piece, anonymouse abuse seems at quite a low level for him.

The closest we get to anonymous back-stabbing Dems is the Still, party officials said, it has been difficult to build a consensus. quote. And I'm not clear whether they said that with or without the knowledge or consent of their superiors.

And Brer Emanuel's on-the-record contribution is hardly stellar.

"What divide?" he said.

"We agree on Social Security," he continued. "We also agree on the war, which is, not more of the same."

"Skelton has a position. Murtha has a position. Levin has a position," he said of Congressional Democrats who have raised questions about the war. "But all of them have one thing in common: Staying the course is a fool's errand. O.K.? I'm happy that our party has a lot of different ideas about how to solve a problem."

Dem candidates on the ground reading the piece might well feel queasy, not at the fact that Dems in different states are addressing the differing priorities of their (in some cases, would-be) constituents (which seems to be AdNag's main point), but at Emanuel's rather complacent tone about the lack of any Dem consensus on particular major issues.

If the best he can boast of is agreement on not more of the same, well, that wouldn't amount to party unity, on Iraq, health care, or anything else.

by skeptic06 2006-03-07 11:06AM | 0 recs
Re: Beltway Dorks Miss the Larger Story: Democrats

Emanuel sounds complacent?  But if he sounds worried, the Emanuel is trashed for criticizing Dems, being defeatist etc.

Better he sounds upbeat and positive in an article like this.

by Mimikatz 2006-03-07 12:41PM | 0 recs
Re: Beltway Dorks Miss the Larger Story: Democrats

Do you really need to quote nearly an entire post from an hour earlier?

by ItsDrewMiller 2006-03-07 03:08PM | 0 recs
Re: Beltway Dorks Miss the Larger Story: Democrats

four hours, I mean.

by ItsDrewMiller 2006-03-07 03:09PM | 0 recs
What about the DLCC small print?

I go to the DLCC site and pick up the PDF of their press release, which tabulates the results they comment on.

It boldly says

In some cases, these Democratic legislative candidates have performed almost 20 points beyond what was expected.

The key words there (on reflection) are beyond what was expected.

A note at the bottom of the page (there is only one) says

Democratic performance is the average percentage a competitive Democratic candidate may get in a district.  This figure is calculated by finding the average percentage of the Democratic vote over 3 to 4 typical elections.  

Uh oh.

What is a competitive...candidate?

Why 3 to 4 and not a single number?

What is a typical election?

If this mutatis mutandis was the product of a GOP organ, I suspect these points would be challenged with no little enthusiasm by the lefty 'sphere.

Perhaps the DLCC numbers are completely above board.

If so, perhaps they ought to have spilt over onto a second page to explain why.

by skeptic06 2006-03-07 03:22PM | 0 recs
Matt Stoller,

Cutting and pasting unvarnished propaganda from the DLCC doesn't embarrass you?

by Sitkah 2006-03-07 06:26PM | 0 recs

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