First 2006 Governors Forecast, Part II: The Top Democratic Targets

by Chris Bowers, Thu Mar 02, 2006 at 10:44:38 AM EST

Part One: The Big Picture

Part two of the forecast focuses on the twelve races that estimate to have at least a 40% chance to switch parties. Nine of these seats are currently held by Republicans, and three are currently held by Democrats. These are the top tier races, and looking at our strength in this list has to bring a smile to even the most pessimistic Democrats out there.

Top Tier Democratic Targets (In alphabetical order; New York is already in the bag)

Alaska. Democratic candidate: Ethan Berkowtiz
For the second time in two years, the deep red state of Alaska has appeared high on a Democratic target list. However, unlike in 2004, this time Democrats are favored to take the seat. Governor, former Senator and father of a Senator Frank Murkowski is, to put it as politely as I can, in deep shit. He has a hideous sub-30 approval rating that has been low since time immemorial. No incumbent wins, or even comes close, with an approval rating like that. Dems are almost certainly going to pick one up here, which is excellent. If he does well as Governor, Berkowitz could one day become a Democratic Senator from Alaska.

(Update from the comments: Murkowski is facing two primary challengers. If he loses the primary, this seat becomes a lot less winnable).
Arkansas. Democratic candidates: Mike Beebe and Bill Halter
This is an open seat because Republican Huckabee can't run again. Overall, Democratic chances look pretty good here. A Rasmussen poll from last month showed Beebe up ten on Republican Asa Hutchinson, which was nearly identical to the lead Beebe had in an October poll from the University of Arkansas. Zogby actually shows Hutchinson slightly ahead, but that is an internet poll. Beebe is the attorney general, so he will probably win the Democratic primary, and have a very good shot in the general. While Arkansas is one of the five most conservative states in the country, it remains a generally Democratic state. We look pretty good for a pickup here.
California. Dems: Phil Angelides and Steve Westly
The big prize. This is quite possibly the most important race in the entire country in 2006. Flipping this seat alone would put Democrats on the brink of having Governors in states with more than half of the national population. It was also reverse one of the worst Republican power grabs of the last decade, and deprive the national wingnut party of one of their "moderate" spokespeople. Schwarzenegger is clearly vulnerable. The Field poll, which is the only poll that really matters in California, puts the race at a dead heat. The good news is that Arnold's approval ratings and trial heat numbers are under forty, so that incumbent rule would place him in severe danger. The bad news is that Arnold has something like $100M+ for this campaign, so he can go nuclear against the Democratic nominee. Normally, a Republican Governor with low approvals in a solid blue state would be finished, but all that money sends shivers down my spine. Right now, I'd say this is a toss-up.
Colorado. Bill Ritter, (Update from the comments: Gary Lindstrom has dropped out)
This is Bill Owens's open seat. Dems across the country should be singing John Denver tunes this year. The Vast Left Wing Conspiracy is fully operational in Colorado, and in 2006 it is going to get even better. You can expect the big gains we made in Colorado in 2004 (and 2005) to be replicated in 2006. Ritter looks very strong in Colorado right now, and the strong possibility of a Democratic trifecta, coupled with a Democratic majority in the congressional delegation, is very real. If only I could share with the blogosphere what I have seen concerning the progressive operation in Colorado. I'm telling you, when Democrats are once again in power across the country and Republicans are writing their strategic equivalents to The Republican Noise Machine, What's the Matter With Kansas, and Crashing the Gate, they will devote an entire chapter to what started happening in Colorado three years ago. We have closed the infrastructure and conspiracy gap here, and now Republicans are the ones facing a gap. I feel very confident that we will score more big wins in Colorado this year.
Maryland. Dems: Martin O'Malley, Doug Duncan
Another outstanding pickup opportunity for Democrats. Baltimore mayor Martin O'Malley is the favorite to defeat Republican incumbent Eldrich. Zogby shows O'Malley with a commanding lead and favorable trends. In fact, the only poll that has not shown O'Malley up comfortably is Rasmussen, but even Rasmussen admits that the it had poll showing Erhlich up was an outlier. Not to take anything away from Duncan, who I hope stays in the race, but O'Malley is young, cool and charismatic. He should already be Governor, but unfortunately was urged to get out of the race in 2002 so someone named Kennedy to blow it for the Dems. Look for for people like O'Malley and Spitzer to run for President one day.
Massachusetts. Dems: Deval Patrick, Tom Reilly
Mitt Romney made the right decision to get out of Doge before Dodge voted him out. In an unusual twist, Democratic chances of taking this seat actually dropped when it became an open seat. Right now, Patrick and Reilly are even in the Democratic primary, and most polls (Zogby, Suffolk, State House News) show both candidates ahead of likely Republican nominee Kerry Healy (it's a relief to see that Irish-Americans will be represented in the race :-) ) Patrick seems to have the mo' on the Democratic side, and he also seems to have grassroots support. The winner of the Democratic primary will probably become the first Democratic Governor of Massachusetts in a long, long time.

(Update from sco in the comments: "Yesterday, Millionare Republican Christy Mihos (former member of the Turnpike Board) decided he was going to run for MA Governor as an independent, mostly because he thought he was going to lose to Kerry Healey. So, it will be a three-way race now, and the conventional wisdom is that Mihos is going to steal more votes from the GOP than the Dems")
Minnesota. Mike Hatch, Steve Kelley, Beck Lourey, Kelly Doran
In something of a surprise to me, Democrats appear to have a good chance to defeat Republican Tim Pawlenty in Minnesota. Rasmussen and Zogby both show Pawlenty a little behind his challengers, which is very bad news for an incumbent. I remain worried about what I notice to be a disturbing entry of Thune-esque blogging in Minnesota (MN is also the national capital of right-wing blogging), but I am also heartened to see a fairly substantial, highly targeted Democratic online response. Considering the new tactics and many close races, Minnesota is possibly the most interesting state to watch this year.
Nevada. Dem: Dina Titus, Jim Gibson
This is another open seat. The Democratic candidates appear to be very close in the primary, and to likely Republican nominee Gibbons in the general (see Zogby and Rasmussen). I have no special insight on this race. It looks like one that we can win, but our chances here seem lower than pretty much every other race I have listed thus far.
Ohio Dems: Ted Strickland
Another open seat race where Democrats are favored to take over. Sitting Republican Governor Bob Taft has the lowest approval rating of any statewide elected official in history (probably). Rasmussen shows Strickland surging against both major Republican contenders. Zogby shows Strickland tied with Blackwell, which I suppose is worrying. I wonder how much Strickland has to win by in order to, you know, actually take office, considering that Blackwell operates the election machinery in Ohio.

Feeling good yet? Those are nine races that Democrats have a good chance at taking over from Republicans, six of which they are favored to win (CA, MN and NV are toss-ups). The six sates where Democrats are favored combine for 11% of the national population. The three toss-up states make up 15% of the national population. If we win the six seats where we are favored plus the toss-up in California, we will almost certainly take over a majority of total Governorships and a population majority in Governorships, no matter what happens elsewhere. We are looking really, really good among Governors in 2006.

The third and final part of the forecast, which I will release tomorrow, will focus on the top tier Republican targets (IL, IA, ME, PA, WI), the second-tier Democratic targets (AL, FL, RI, SC), the second-tier Republican targets (KS, MI, OR) and the strangest race of all, Texas.

Tags: 2006, forecasts, governors (all tags)

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Re: First 2006 Governors Forecast, Part II

New York? Did you forget New York?

by Mimikatz 2006-03-02 10:53AM | 0 recs

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Re: First 2006 Governors Forecast, Part II: The To

NY was mentioned already as "in the bag."

So, how good is this Berkowtiz fellow? Better than Tony Knowles?

BTW, Lindstrom has dropped out.

by Ramo 2006-03-02 11:06AM | 0 recs

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Re: First 2006 Governors Forecast, Part II: The To

What's wrong with Tony Knowles?? >:-(

by HellofaSandwich 2006-03-02 11:18AM | 0 recs

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Re: First 2006 Governors Forecast, Part II: The To

Nothing is wrong with Tony, his star has just fallen because people never really understood the political power of Ted Stevens in Alaska, so he gets a bad rap for losing to Murkowski. Personally, I hope he isn't done in politics. He was a fantastic candidate who would have won in any other set of circumstances.

by loyalson 2006-03-02 01:24PM | 0 recs

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Three notes

First, Lindstrom is out in CO.

Second, it's Ehrlich, not Eldrich.

Third, you don't seem to take seriously the challenges to Murkowski from Loren Leman and Sarah Palin. I think either of these people could legitimately knock him off and destroy Berkowitz. Also, Tony Knowles might be getting in that race, which would make him the favorite even if Palin or Leman were the GOP nominee.

Other than that, great post. Thanks for this.

by Nonpartisan 2006-03-02 11:17AM | 0 recs

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Re: Three notes

I'll fix that. Thanks for the info.

by Chris Bowers 2006-03-02 12:09PM | 0 recs

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Re: Three notes

Even if TK doesn't enter the race, Berkowitz is also being challenged in the primary by Eric Croft. Croft has a somewhat less impressive resume, but is also not short, liberal, or Jewish, three factors that combine to make Berkowitz the Democrat with the least chance of making the permanent move to Juneau.

I doubt you'll ever find a bigger fan of Ethan than me, but as someone born and raised in the state, and a half-Jew myself, the level of casual anti-semitism in Alaska is astounding, and a significant bar to Berkowitz's state-wide electoral chances. A shame, because he'd make a hell of a governor.

by mcbuckleychuck 2006-03-02 02:45PM | 0 recs

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Massachusetts

Yesterday, Millionare Republican Christy Mihos (former member of the Turnpike Board) decided he was going to run for MA Governor as an independent, mostly because he thought he was going to lose to Kerry Healey. So, it will be a three-way race now, and the conventional wisdom is that Mihos is going to steal more votes from the GOP than the Dems.

Basically, it just got a whole lot harder for the GOP to keep this seat.

by sco 2006-03-02 11:20AM | 0 recs

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Re: Massachusetts

Thanks for the info.

by Chris Bowers 2006-03-02 12:09PM | 0 recs

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Re: Massachusetts

Mihos? What part of Ireland did THEY come from??

Must of been somewhere up the North...

by sneemteam 2006-03-02 12:09PM | 0 recs

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Minnesota

In Minnesota, St. Sen. Becky Lourey is also running for Governor. She recently recieved the endorsement of Congressman Jim Oberstar.

by PatMN 2006-03-02 11:26AM | 0 recs

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Re: Minnesota

As well, Kelly Doran is running as a Democrat. With millions of dollars of his own money to spend. He's also been at least talking to the DFL base.

Sean

by SeanBroom 2006-03-02 11:29AM | 0 recs

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Re: Minnesota

Thanks to both of you for the info.

by Chris Bowers 2006-03-02 12:09PM | 0 recs

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I was wondering...

If you are going to de a similar analysis of The State Leg. races accross the country.

by Liberal 2006-03-02 11:31AM | 0 recs

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Re: I was wondering...

I can't do one this detailed. It is just too vast a topic. I can give an overview however. And I will do that.

by Chris Bowers 2006-03-02 12:05PM | 0 recs

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Leaving Florida Out of the Top Tier Is A Mistake

Yes, even if Florida has trended red in recent years, likely Dem nominee Jim Davis, is neck and neck with likely Republican nominee Charlie Crist. This was a big surprise to me, someone who has watched Florida Democrats fall on their face and miss opportunity after opportunity the past 4 years.

Florida will be increasingly key to any Democratic national strategy. Ohio and much of the midwest is shriking in terms of electoral power, while Florida is surging (it will have more electoral power than New York in 10-20 years). Without Florida 10-20 year s from now, we just can't win nationally (unless a solid coalition out west is formed or other southern border states are brought into the Democratic fold.)

A gubernatorial win in Florida in 2006, which is likely, will send a signal that Democrats are competitive and can win in Florida again.

by gatordemocrat 2006-03-02 11:31AM | 0 recs

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I think the big Reason Bush won Florida or reasons

A: He pulled well on the Hurricanes. B: The Medicare/RX bill that was suppose to be so great. If those two things didn't go for him i think he would have lost. Also Florida is Pissed at Bush and the Republicans right now.

by Liberal 2006-03-02 11:50AM | 0 recs

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Nah

I think Florida (if you average it up) is a red state, mostly due to the influence of the panhandle. Gore was competative mainly because he had a Jew on the ticket. It may be coming back our way though, with the rest of the country.

by Geotpf 2006-03-02 02:36PM | 0 recs

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Re: Leaving Florida Out of the Top Tier Is A Mista

I'm worried about all the money Crist has though.

I really wish Smith would just be Davis' Lt. Gov. so we can focus on the general.

by auboy2006 2006-03-02 12:01PM | 0 recs

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Lt Governor runningmates

In states like Colorado,Florida,Iowa,Maryland, Minnesota,and Ohio- The Lt Governor nominee are selected by the Gubenatorial candidate during the primary and general election

Colorado- Bill Ritter selected a female runningmate- Barbara O'Brien.
Iowa- Chet Culver selected a female runningmate- Patty Judge.
Maryland- Martin O'Malley select an African American Male- Anthony Brown as his Lt Governor Runningmate.
Ohio- Ted Strickland- Selected Lee Fisher- a White Jewish male from Clevaland as his Lt Governor Runningmate.
New York- Eliot Spitzer has selected David Patterson- an African American Male as his Lt Governor runningmate.

by CMBurns 2006-03-02 02:04PM | 0 recs

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Re: Leaving Florida Out of the Top Tier

I'm really worried about Davis as the nominee - he isn't thought very highly of in the northern part of the state. I think the poll numbers are so close right now because of the Bush backlash, but won't stay that way. If Davis does become the nominee he would do well to pick Smith as his running mate, as he has a rapport with the Panhandle. I'm biased though, as I was a former intern of Smith's and I can vouch that he is a good man and extremely smart and capable. Still kinda pissed he didn't go after atty. general and work his way up from there. It will be a shame if he fades from politics, as he is such an asset to the party.

by TallyInsider 2006-03-02 06:06PM | 0 recs

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Re: First 2006 Governors Forecast, Part II: The To

You also mentioned "Tom" Pawlenty in Minnesota...he's actually Tim Pawlenty. Probably just a typo, but I thought I'd point it out.

by NorthStarPolitics 2006-03-02 11:41AM | 0 recs

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CA-Gov

The California Governors race will be the most expensive race in the country. Arnold's former spokesman and current GOP staffer blabbed to the LAT that he was planning on raising $120M for the race. He is starting out about $500k in the hole, but as you mentioned he has his own personal wealth.

Both of the Democratic challengers are millionaires as well, though Westly is in a category to himself, having been an eBay exec. Westly has already dumped in $20M of his own money. Both of them are up on the air right now. The primary is June 6th.

The unions, which I work for will be launching their own anti-Arnold campaign. We were very effective in 2005 and hope to replicate that success.

This race is a tossup, but the most encouraging number is that 47% of voters say they would vote for someone else, while only 37% say they will vote for the governor. He still has a lot of work to do, but the blow of the special election has worn off some, but he is struggling to keep his own party engaged after his move to the left.

by juls 2006-03-02 11:53AM | 0 recs

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Re: CA-Gov

His party will be there for him in the end. Republicans are certainly not going to vote for Angelides.

My thought is that California Dems need to find a way to make the state race something of a national referndum on Bush and the Republicans. Give the majority Dems a chance to vent their anger at the national situation.

by danielj 2006-03-02 12:13PM | 0 recs

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Re: CA-Gov

They may not vote for Westly/Angelides, but they may sit on their hands. This is from the Field Poll released today.

One factor working against the Governor is that only 65% of Republicans are inclined to back him for re-election, 14% are disinclined and an unusually large 21% are undecided.

[snip]

Schwarzenegger's re-elect support is strongest among conservatives (54%) and residents in Inland counties (44%), although the proportions are lower than the levels usually obtained by successful Republican candidates in recent elections.

They have serious problems with the 2006 version of Arnold.

I agree with you on the tying Arnold to national Republicans. There are some opportunities to do that and others where it is more difficult. Clearly, this is a 1st tier race for the Republicans since they sent Matthew Dowd to run the campaign. A bunch of other DC Republicans, former press guy for Cheney ect have been encouraged to go West. There is room to say that California is part of the national Republican strategy to take over the country.

On the other hand the Bush Administration hasn't been willing to give him ammo to help his re-election chances. Arnold went to DC for the governors convention and tried to set up a meeting with Bush, but only got Andy Card. He got absolutely nothing out of card on levee money. In fact the only thing he got from the trip was a promise by Chertoff to come take a tour.

We do need to get CA Dems fired up. It is pretty lackluster right now, but in many ways there is a bit of voter fatigue. Hopefully things will heat up some as the primary gets going.

by juls 2006-03-02 12:31PM | 0 recs

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Re: First 2006 Governors Forecast, Part II: The To

Mitt Romney made the right decision to get out of Doge...

Another GOP video, eh?

Will certainly queer his pitch for08 with the Dobsonites.

Consolation: this being MA, they can always tie the knot...

by skeptic06 2006-03-02 12:02PM | 0 recs

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You forgot Florida-

The top tier targets for the Democrats are
1)Alaska- Ethan Berkowitz(D)or Tony Knowles(D)
2)Arkansas- Mike Beebe(D) +1D
3)California- Phil Angelides(D)or Steven Westly(D)
4)Colorado- Bill Ritter(D)
5)Florida- Jim Davis(D)
6)Maryland- Martin O'Malley(D)+2D
7)Massachusetts- Deval Patrick(D)or Tom Reilly(D)+3D
8)Minnesota- Mike Hatch(D)
9)Nevada- Jim Gibson(D)or Dina Titus(D)
10)New York-Eliot Spitzer(D)+4D
11)Ohio- Ted Strickland(D)+5D

Second Tier Democratic Targets
1)Alabama- Lucy Baxley(D)
2)Georgia- Cathy Cox(D)or Mark Taylor(D)
3)Rhode Island- Charlie Fogarty(D)
4)Texas- Chris Bell(D)or Bob Gammage. - Republican vote will split between Rick Perry and Scott McCellan's mommy.

Top tier Republican Targets are
1)Illinois- Toponika(R)
2)Iowa- Nussle(R)
3)Pennsylvania- Swann(R)

by CMBurns 2006-03-02 01:47PM | 0 recs

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Re: You forgot Florida-

Yep, Knowles might still run. He really should declare one way or the other soon, though. Not good to wait so long.

by DavidNYC 2006-03-02 05:13PM | 0 recs

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MA

"Right now, Patrick and Reilly are even in the Democratic primary, and most polls (Zogby, Suffolk, State House News) show both candidates ahead of likely Republican nominee Kerry Healy (it's a relief to see that Irish-Americans will be represented in the race :-) )"

You do know that, surname aside, Deval Patrick is, shall we say, Black Irish...right? Or was the cutesy joke more important than the idea that there may be an African-American governing a state that way too many people still associate with racism?

Regardless, the race is Patrick's to lose: Reilly's campaign has imploded, Healey only makes the news when she says or does something really stupid -- again -- and as noted above, Christy Mihos has bolted the GOP and will run as an independent, siphoning a huge part of the traditional GOP vote.

This is a sure pick-up for the Dems with Mihos in the race. Patrick or Reilly, one of them is gonna be the next governor.

by BarmyFotheringayPhipps 2006-03-02 02:03PM | 0 recs

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Re: MA

No wonder people say the blogosphere has no sense of humor.

by Chris Bowers 2006-03-02 07:28PM | 0 recs

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Re: MA

Well, yeah, if that's the best you can do for humor! It's no Dana Milbank in hunters orange, you gotta admit that...

by BarmyFotheringayPhipps 2006-03-02 09:54PM | 0 recs

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Re: MN Republicans exposed

MNDemocratsExposed was a predatory, domain-name-squatting, right-wing fog machine masquerading as a "concerned independent" until he was revealed as a Repub operative (and former research director) Michael Brodkorb. He committed libel and was sued, and I for one hope he'll have no influence among anyone but those already so far into his camp that they're beyond reach already.

The lawsuit itself has some interesting implications re: holding bloggers accountable for telling the truth. Not that I see a big problem for that on our side...

by eponymous 2006-03-02 03:04PM | 0 recs

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Chris

I know it's a post for later, but Michigan is not a second-tier race. The race is going to be real, real close, even if some polls don't show it (although Rasmussen does).

by Eric11 2006-03-02 04:21PM | 0 recs

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What's up with Colorado

What operation have we set up there that has enabled us to be so successful lately. Anyone know. It's truly amazing. It wasn't that long ago it seemed there wasn't much of a difference between Colorado and Wyoming.

by Eric11 2006-03-02 04:23PM | 0 recs

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Re: What's up with Colorado

Colorado dems were very strategic and in 2004 they targeted a bunch of state house & senate seats. This was kept a bit under wraps, but they were able to get some deep-pockets funding from a quartet of wealthy liberals. Some effective ads were produced, including the memorable "actress dressed as Marilyn Musgrave in a pink dress" series. The gop was lazy and completely surprised by all the extra funding in swing districts.

Second, Colorado has always had a strong liberal component. Think Washington or Oregon, not Wyoming. Sure, Colorado Springs has military bases and a big christian-right influence, and the wealthy South Suburbs of Denver are pretty conservative, but Colorado is no longer a particularly rural state. Denver metro is almost 2/3 of the population.

Finally, the moderate/traditional gop in Colorado has all but collapsed. These days the libertarian anti-government strain and the religious right are fighting to dominate the party. Yet, these ultra-right ideas don't appeal to moderate republicans, let-alone the large independent population, who are more live-and-let-live, get the religious right out of my sex-life, and the government out of my bedroom.

It isn't that the Colorado dems are so liberal (lots of proud DLC members). Let's call them good-government dems. People in the West expect government to be competent and transparent, so the anti-government meme doesn't hold much water. This explains the popularity of Denver mayor Hickenlooper, who was strongly pushed to run for Governor.

by MetaData 2006-03-02 05:33PM | 0 recs

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Re: What's up with Colorado

And I'll be adding to that liberal influence when I move to Denver with my liberal girlfriend in two months.

I'd be happy to help the progressives out there. I've been telling people that I'm going to singlehandedly turn the state blue. :)

by RisingSign 2006-03-03 05:55AM | 0 recs

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Nevada

The Nevada race is still wide open. I don't base it on the polls. The really reliable indicator is the gambling industry. They're splitting their contributions between Gibbons (R), Gibson (D) and Titus (D). While Republican Lieutenant Governor Lorraine Hunt who is running against Gibbons seems to be getting nada. All this according to a Reno Gazette Journal article posted on Gibson's website:

http://www.gibson2006.com/newsroom/janua ry2006/20060118.aspx

I've been an exchange student in Nevada ten years ago, so I'm still interested in Nevada politics but mostly get my information from the internet. There is an interesting progressive Nevada blog:

http://desertbeacon.blogspot.com/

I'm personally for Titus which at first was a gut reaction but the more I've looked into it the more I like her. She's got a lot labour endorsements already. What's interesting is that Gibson seems to be a DINO at least if one can believe this website paid for by Friends of Dina Titus:

http://www.jimnodem.com/

According to this he has until recently given to and endorsed Republicans running for office. Among them Rep Jon Porter and Gov Kenny Guinn.

One interesting fact on the Republican side: Dawn Gibbons, wife of Republican Gov candidate John Gibbons is running to take over his Seat in Congress. I don't know if conservative Northern Nevadans will be all too happy with voting for a couple this November.

by jedinecny 2006-03-03 02:54AM | 0 recs