Can the Democrats Finally Defeat Bass in NH?

by Jonathan Singer, Sun Feb 26, 2006 at 09:03:19 AM EST

In 1994, Republican Charlie Bass rode his party's wave into office, garnering 51 percent of the vote against incumbent Rep. Dick Swett in a closely fought election. Since then, Bass has been successful at defending his seat, running well ahead of the Republican ticket even during closely fought elections. But could this finally be the year that the Democrats mount an effective challenge?

A number of Democrats have been campaigning in the Western New Hampshire district for some time, raising a respectable amount of money. The leading Democrat in the district, which John Kerry won with 52 percent of the vote in 2004, seems to be former Assistant Attorney General Paul Hodes, who raised over $100,000 as of the end of the year. Other Democrats in the race include businessman Bret Clemons and peace activist Caleb Johnson.

Historically, fundraising has not been a good determinant of success in New Hampshire's second congressional district, particularly for Demcorats. In Bass' first election in 1994, Swett outspent Bass by more than a 2:1 margin despite losing by about five points, and in 2002, Swett's wife Katrina -- daughter of Rep. Tom Lantos (D-CA) -- spent nearly $1.5 million on the race despite losing by 16 points. But, both 1994 and 2002 were Republican years, and there is no indication that the country will be as warm to the GOP as it was four years ago or twelve years ago.

And Bass' voting pattern has not done much to endear him to his constituents. After sticking right in the middle of the political spectrum during the election year of 2004 -- National Journal's vote ranking gave him a 50.8 percent liberal score -- Bass moved quite noticeably to the right in 2005, gaining a 54.5 conservative score from National Journal [pdf]. On key votes like CAFTA, Bass eschewed his faux moderation and helped provide the GOP with a conservative majority. Simply put, Bass might be starting to lean to conservative for his district.

It will be hard enough for the Democrats to retake the House of Representatives this year by winning districts that are evenly split or only marginally Republican, but if the Democrats are unable to win Democratic districts like NH-02 this fall, the arithmetic becomes even tougher. This is a race the Dems can and should win to show the pundits that faux moderation within the Republican caucus simply won't cut it any more.

Tags: House 2006, NH-02 (all tags)

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12 Comments

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Rep. Dick Swett???

With a name like that, how did he ever get elected in the first place?

by jkfp2004 2006-02-26 10:03AM | 0 recs
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This is important

If Lynch gets reelected as expected and we win NH-02 than we will be in perfect position to take down Sen. Jhon Sunnuu in 2008.

by Liberal 2006-02-26 10:37AM | 0 recs
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Look at Hodes' debt

I'd say Hodes is the least of the three main candidates running (Berlin mayor Bob Danderson and greeting card executive Brett Clemons would be the other two).  But yeah, it's a seat that we'd have a good shot at getting.

by Nonpartisan 2006-02-26 10:47AM | 0 recs
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Then too, I thought Barney Brannen......

....had a great shot of winning a few years ago: had money, name recognition...and did worse than some other Bass challengers.

   Part of the problem is that Bass has a "moderate" reputation from his time in the NH Legislature (and which was partially deserved). But once he got down to Washington, he just trod the DeLay-dictated line.

by Ed Tracey 2006-02-26 12:02PM | 0 recs
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Re: Can the Democrats Finally Defeat Bass in NH?

Bass could finally be unseated.

My only concern is this person would have to be a more moderate Democrat. Progressives unfortunately don't fare well in New Hampshire, especially in the 2nd district. Arnie Arnesen couldn't pull off a run for Gov. or the 2nd district and former U.S. Rep. Dudley Dudley's image got massacred by the likes of the NH GOP and papers like the Union Leader. Unfortunately, she didn't last.

Hodes would be a great Congressman but I feel like Dems and Indepdents would go for someone like Bret Clemmons. He served as Gov. Jeanne Shaheen's Press Secretary, he's got some inside support (I would think), and seems to me the left-of-center candidate New Hampshirites historically go for, like Dick Swett (or the late Gov. Hugh Gallen).

BTW, Dick Swett is also married to Katrina Lantos, daughter of California Congressman Tom Lantos. Little trivia for you all!

by Brattlerouser 2006-02-26 12:09PM | 0 recs
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Re: Can the Democrats Finally Defeat Bass in NH?

"This is a race the Dems can and should win to show the pundits that faux moderation within the Republican caucus simply won't cut it any more."

Can they win?  Absolutely.

But should they win?  That's an entirely different question.

I'm very uneasy when people throw around statements like 'they should win,' particularly when you're running against an incumbent, and  particularly an incumbent who has survived tough challenges in the past.

A strong candidate against Charlie Bass would have a good chance of winning.  

But does that mean that candidate 'should' win?  

Probably not.  It means that if the candidate runs a good race, doesn't screw up, has the financial support needed, the electoral tides are heading the right way, and maybe gets some help from a Bass screw-up, they 'could' win.  

I don't want to get into a whole semantic debate, but suggesting a non-incumbent 'should win' flies in the face of what we all know:  that knocking off incumbents is really hard to do.

I'm all in favor of setting the bar higher, but not to a level that's unrealistic.  

by Politicalhack06 2006-02-26 01:13PM | 0 recs
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Can vs. Should vs. Will

This is a race the Democrats can win.

As a general rule, Democrats should win contests in districts that are Democratic leaning and trending even more so. Yes, there is a great incumbent advantage and a structural advantage (NH still thinks of itself as a red state in some ways) for Bass, but Democrats nevertheless shouldn't keep losing in what are, for all intents and purposes, Democratic districts.

Now will the Democrats win this seat? That one's much more up in the air, but given the two advantages listed above, I'm slightly skeptical -- at least at this point.

by Jonathan Singer 2006-02-26 01:38PM | 0 recs
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Re: Can the Democrats Finally Defeat Bass in NH?

Not to nitpick, but Paul Hodes is not a state Rep.  Also, it was Bret's brother, Nick Clemons, who worked for the Shaheen campaign.  Nick now works for the NH Democratic party.  Bret  moved back to New Hampshire from Ohio in order to run for Congress.  

I have to agree that defeating Bass will be difficult. Western New Hampshire is notoriously independent and the voters tend not to vote a straight party ticket.  

Finally, Bob Danderson is a Republican and is challenging Bass in the primary.

by Liberal Libertarian 2006-02-26 01:48PM | 0 recs
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Re: Can the Democrats Finally Defeat Bass in NH?

So, let's hope for a nasty divisive primary battle between Bass and Danderson and that combined with a wind to Democrats back nationally will push the seat into our column.

by Quinton 2006-02-26 03:00PM | 0 recs
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Re: Can the Democrats Finally Defeat Bass in NH?

Dudley Dudley isn't a "former US Rep." She ran for the state's other House seat in 1984 and lost, in part because of a very divisive primary.  As for the 2nd, Swett was the only Democrat to win the seat since 1912 and Bass has always had built-in name recognition because his father was a Rep back in the '50s.

I can't be too optimistic at this point about beating Bass, but consider: in 1988 - less than 20 years ago - New Hampshire was Bush I's third best state (after Utah and Idaho).  The progress Dems have made since then is incredible.  Let's not get too frustrated just because the job isn't done yet.  For a more realistic target (which will give us a leg up on future House races), how is our recruiting looking for the state legislature?

by RamblinDave 2006-02-26 03:22PM | 0 recs
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Re: Can the Democrats Finally Defeat Bass in NH?

Looks great now in the 1st.

by Jerome Armstrong 2006-02-26 04:25PM | 0 recs
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Re: Can the Democrats Finally Defeat Bass in NH?
Living in NH like I did for 10 years, it's very difficult to defeat any Republicans there. Most of the head honchos up there are ribbed rock Republicans, meaning that Republicans are like the Chicago Democrats of the 60's.
   Is it impossible to do? No. Kerry won New Hampshire, so anything is possible. However, it's going to take quite an effort to pull it off.
by liebermanlives 2006-02-26 04:29PM | 0 recs

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