New Polling on CT

by Matt Stoller, Thu Feb 16, 2006 at 05:54:54 AM EST

My Left Nutmeg reports on a new Quinnipiac poll:

Other notes on Joe's numbers: his support among Republicans continues to be higher than among Democrats. Among Democrats, he has a 57%-30% job approval split, a 61%-31% "deserves to be re-elected" split, and 50% have a positive approval of him compared to 30% negative and 24% mixed. High, yes, but not ridiculously so (Dodd has a 70% job approval among Democrats).

The peripheral numbers also look great for a candidate running on an anti-war, anti-Bush platform. Bush's approval in the state has fallen to an all-time low of 31%, including 8% among Democrats (who are those people?? Did they poll Joe's immediate family?). Only 29% approve of Bush's handling of the war, including 9% of Democrats. Only 24% think going to war was the right thing to do, including 15% of Democrats. These are all the lowest finding the Q-Poll has reported. 25% of Democrats believe the war would be the most important issue in determining who to support in a primary. These numbers are, of course, also fantastic for our congressional candidates.

Interesting stuff.  Keep in mind the voter universe in the primary is much smaller and skewed more liberal than the general Quinnipiac numbers.  Lieberman is popular in Connecticut; people are still proud he represented them on a national level in 2000 as the VP candidate.  Lieberman rates higher among Republicans than Democrats, and gets progressively less popular the more liberal the voter audience.  

It's too bad the primary in CT isn't an open primary.  Too bad for Joe, I mean.

I'll have more on Ned Lamont soon.  Very impressive guy.

Tags: Connecticut, Joe Lieberman, Ned Lamont (all tags)

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9 Comments

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Re: New Polling on CT

This is really getting funny, because I KNOW you are smarter than this. How anyone can look at these numbers and not conclude that Joe is untouchable is just beyond me. Just to note the obvious: He has a 61% "re-elect" level AMONG DEMOCRATS. And he has many times the money of his opponent (and no general election to worry about, so he can spend it all). And he has most of the institutional issue groups (who appeal mainly to liberals) behind him. And his opponent has nothing except the enthusiasm of the netroots community, most of which lives out of state.

Is there a point at which someone concludes that supporting windmill-tilting candidates like this is bad for our credibility? Or no? I'd strongly encourage folks to think about that no matter how much they hate Joe (as I do).

by ColoDem 2006-02-16 06:18AM | 0 recs
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Re: New Polling on CT

And he has most of the institutional issue groups (who appeal mainly to liberals) behind him.

This is not true.

And his opponent has nothing except the enthusiasm of the netroots community, most of which lives out of state.

This is not true.

I would ask you to be more careful in your comments.

by Matt Stoller 2006-02-16 06:41AM | 0 recs
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Don't be too quick to judge

There really is a lot of discontent with Lieberman, and there will be a lot more than netroots behind Lamont.  

Even if he doesn't win (which is obviously the more likely scenario) the competitive primary will hopefully have the "Toomey Effect", which would be worth the whole effort, imo.

by elihuben 2006-02-16 07:03AM | 0 recs
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Re: Don't be too quick to judge

Specter tilted his career to the right long before Pat Toomey announced his challenge.

by Adam B 2006-02-16 11:56AM | 0 recs
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Re: New Polling on CT

According to FEC reports of 12/31/05, Joseph Lieberman had $4,127,333 cash on hand.

Total Receipts:    $4,667,710
Transfers From Authorized Committees:    $0
Individual Contributions:    $3,841,788
Non-Party (e.g. PACs) or Other Committees:    $795,684
Beginning Cash:    $432,059
Latest Cash On Hand:    $4,127,333
Debts Owed By:    $0

FEC link

Lamont has already stated publicly he will spend up to $1,000,000 of his own money, provided there is sufficient support (matching funds, I assume). Money won't be the stumbling block. Organization and getting his name out there are the major hurdles. Quixotic? No. Difficult, of course, but not impossible.

As for Joe Lieberman, he can draw on many resources, including according to Robert Novak Republican support:

REPUBLICANS FOR LIEBERMAN

 Two prominent Republican lobbyists, Craig Fuller and H.P. Goldfield, hosted a fund-raising dinner Thursday evening at Goldfield's Washington home for Democratic Sen. Joseph Lieberman, seeking re-election in Connecticut this year.

 Fuller was President Ronald Reagan's Cabinet secretary and later Vice President George H.W. Bush's chief of staff. Goldfield, a Reagan White House aide and later assistant secretary of Commerce, was a fund-raiser in the two Bush-Quayle campaigns.

 While Lieberman is a major voice for lobbyist reform, three of his dinner's five hosts were registered lobbyists. Fuller represents the National Association of Chain Drug Stores. Goldfield lobbies for Airbus and for energy companies (ConcocoPhillips, Dynegy International and Gulfsands Petroleum). Co-host C. Michael Gilliland, a partner in the Hogan & Hartson law firm, represents a variety of clients.

http://townhall.com/opinion/columns/robe rtnovak/2006/02/11/186083.html

by Scarce 2006-02-16 08:24AM | 0 recs
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Re: New Polling on CT

I live in Connecticut.  I have met Ned Lamont and found him quite impressive: authentic, smart, articulate and a fighting progressive Democrat.  I'm a supporter now.  I question how strong or deep Joe's support really is.  I can tell you from what I've seen there is a tremendous amount of anger towards Bush and his policies amongst the rank and file Democrats I've spoken to.  Given a choice between a progressive Joe who seems to kiss Bush and a progressive Ned who takes the battle to Bush, those same rank and file Democrats will come out to vote against Joe and for a real fighting Dem in an August, pure Democratic primary.  Underestimate at your peril a motivated electorate in a thinly voted primary.

by Joe Scordato 2006-02-16 07:59AM | 0 recs
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Re: New Polling on CT

Not to pour cold water on the hopes of progressives, but a new Quinnipac poll of Democratic voters shows Holy Joe leading Lamont 68% to 13%.

by JDWalley 2006-02-16 09:26AM | 0 recs
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Re: New Polling on CT

Wow.

So we have a poll which shows.

Democrats favor Lieberman
Republicans favor Lieberman
Independents favor Lieberman.

But Democrats don't favor him AS MUCH.

So the "netroots" decides to take him on.  The strategy to be to knock him out in a primary where the electorate would select someone LESS palatable to the general electorate, because primaries tend to bring out the more extreme elements of a party.

Sounds like a way to win over America.  For sure.

by JPhurst 2006-02-16 09:31AM | 0 recs
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Funny

I usually answer people who use polls like this to tout the guy with the leading numbers with the following response...

"Two word...Joe Lieberman"

I seem to remember a guy by that name just killing everyone else in the Presidential Primary. Until he actually had to campaign against anyone could breathe. It seems the mote that Joe guy talks when faced with any competition, the more he seems to go down in the polls.

by ElitistJohn 2006-02-16 11:59AM | 0 recs

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