CT-Sen: First Poll

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The primary in Connecticut will take place in almost six months--173 days to be precise-- on Tuesday, August 8, 2006. Given this, I would like to take a look back at Lieberman's poll performance in another recent Democratic primary in Connecticut over a similar amount of time. From the subscriber section of polling report:

Quinnipiac University Poll. Nov. 12-18, 2003. Statewide:

"Now I'm going to name nine Democrats who might run for president in 2004. After I read all nine names, tell me which one you would most like to see the Democrats nominate for president in 2004. Here are the choices . . . ." N=509 Democratic voters, MoE ± 4.3


                  11/18     4/28
Lieberman     28        46
Dean             23         6
Others          39        36
Unsure          10        11

That is a pretty catastrophic collapse on Lieberman's part. He lost 35 points in 204 days. Importantly, this collapse occurred during a time when Lieberman was also campaigning for President full-throttle (if such a term can ever be applied to Lieberman). Also, all of his support went to Dean, another netroots fueled candidate.

So where does Lamont stack up six months out? Quinnipiac has some numbers:

3. Do you approve or disapprove of the way Joseph Lieberman is handling his job as United States Senator?


           Approve      Disapprove    Unsure
All             63             25          11
Dems        57             30          13

15. Is your opinion of United States Senator Joseph Lieberman favorable, unfavorable, mixed, or haven't you heard enough about him?


          Favorable     Unfavorable    Mixed    Don't Know
All             53             16          23          8
Dems        50             20          24          6

17. Is your opinion of businessman Ned Lamont favorable, unfavorable, mixed, or haven't you heard enough about him?


          Favorable     Unfavorable    Mixed    Don't Know
All              2              2           3         93
Dems         3              2           1         94

20. (If registered democrat)If the 2006 Democratic primary for United States Senator were being held today, and the candidates were Joseph Lieberman and Ned Lamont for whom would you vote?

Lieberman          68
Lamont              13
Unsure / Other   19

So Lamont is down 55 points to Lieberman, which is greater than Dean's deficit at the same point in time. More worryingly, Lieberman is well over 50.

However, looking at these numbers tells me that there is potential for a lot of movement against Lieberman, and fast. He receives 68% of the primary vote, but he has 94% name ID to Lamont's 6%. He receives 68% of the primary vote, but his approval among Dems is only 57%, and his favorables among Dems are only 50%. While this does not show that Lieberman is vulnerable yet, these numbers do show that Lamont could move up to around 30%, and push Lieberman down in the 50's, very quickly if he gets some name ID.

Lieberman has a history of sinking approval ratings during campaigns, and his performance against Dean in his home state shows that he can potentially lose a lot of ground fast. Given that, if Lamont can make this a 20-25 point deficit by June, then suddenly he is in the ballgame. Throw in an army of volunteers on the ground, and Lieberman might be in some trouble.

These may not be the numbers we wanted at first, but it certainly isn't hopeless. Volunteering is probably the best thing you can do in this race, but don't let that stop you from donating.

Tags: Democrats, polls, Primaries, Senate 2006 (all tags)

Comments

28 Comments

Re: CT-Sen: First Poll

On your numbers, Lieberman dropped 18 points (46 to 28) from April to November 03, not 35, surely?

by skeptic06 2006-02-16 02:54PM | 0 recs
Re: CT-Sen: First Poll

Thirty-five is the sum of the Lieberman slide and the Dean gain.

by Liberal404 2006-02-16 06:01PM | 0 recs
Re: CT-Sen: First Poll

An email from the Lamont campaign tonight:

Dear Friend,

Congratulations. Since we launched www.NedLamont.com more than 1,000 people from Connecticut have signed up to volunteer, giving us the beginnings of the ground army we need to launch our campaign. During the next few weeks a team of volunteers will be individually contacting each volunteer from Connecticut who signed up and get you involved in specific campaign activities.

Because of your enthusiasm I have established a candidate committee and am in the process putting together a great campaign team.

I will formally announce my candidacy in March -- but first we need to do some more work. Joe Lieberman has already raised over $5 million and not surprisingly Republican lobbyists in Washington DC, including George H.W. Bush's former Chief of Staff, are stepping up to raise money for the Senator that was voted the most popular Democrat amongst lobbyists and Republicans in the National Journal's annual poll.

In addition to what I will contribute, it will cost $500,000 to launch this campaign and we need to begin right now. You can make a secure contribution directly to my campaign on my Act Blue page.

http://www.nedlamont.com/actblue.html

Republican lobbyists are falling all over themselves to support Joe Lieberman. It's not just his votes for awful legislation such as the transportation bill with over 6,000 pork ridden earmarks, his unquestioning support for the 'stay the course strategy' in Iraq, or his support of last year's sham of an energy bill with billions in tax giveways to the oil producers and few incentives for conservation. During the past six years Senator Lieberman has been more likely to support the President on the big issues and too quick to criticize the Democratic alternatives.

Joe will claim he is an independent voice for Connecticut but in reality his cozy support for the Bush polices undermines our progressive values and undermines the Democrats who are promoting these values. A blue state should have a blue Senator.

Early financial support is essential if we are to build the campaign organization and show that this campaign is one to reckon with. Get our campaign started off right.

http://www.nedlamont.com/actblue.html

Winning this campaign will be a tremendous challenge. We are going to need a grassroots organization that combines the best of the old fashioned door to door politics with today's netroots.

We can only do this if we continue to grow. Please ask your friends, families, and neighbors to join us in challenging George Bush's favorite Democrat by signing up today.

http://www.NedLamont.com

Thank you,

Ned Lamont

Paid for by Ned Lamont for Senate, John Hartwell, Treasurer
email: info@nedlamont.com
phone: (203) 622-7091
web: http://nedlamont.com

by tparty 2006-02-16 02:56PM | 0 recs
$100

On it's way.

by ElitistJohn 2006-02-16 04:06PM | 0 recs
Re: CT-Sen: First Poll

I love this site, but this is just a reach.  This is exactly what I hate about the internet.  Oooh, let's get all excited about a candidate that is polling horribly, but whom we really like.  Let's spend time and energy and money and then....lose.

You guys can go through this again if you want, I'm sticking my time and energy into candidates that stand a fighting chance.  

If I LIVED in CT, then I would focus my energy on this race because it would be my Senator and my fight.  But, it's crazy with everything going on to hope and pray and wonk ourselves into a frenzy over this race at the cost of other races.  I guess if you've got money to burn then this is the place to do it.

Sorry, but that's my opinion.

by Robert P 2006-02-16 03:10PM | 0 recs
Re: CT-Sen: First Poll

The most important facet of this poll is, I believe, that if you match Ned Lamont's name recognition to Lieberman's, Lamont earns 41% from Democrats.

by sharris0512 2006-02-16 03:26PM | 0 recs
Re: CT-Sen: First Poll
Sorry Chris, cherry-picking numbers to make Lamont seem closer than he actually is smacks of despiration
by liebermanlives 2006-02-16 03:38PM | 0 recs
Re: CT-Sen: First Poll

There's no cherry picking here, Chris doesn't do that.  You should know that by now.

I posted on this point; the electorate is in play and large swings aren't just possible, they are happening.  People are mad at the establishment.

by Matt Stoller 2006-02-16 04:26PM | 0 recs
Re: CT-Sen: First Poll
Sorry Matt, Chris IS cherry picking poll numbers. If you go with the raw data from the Journal Inquirer, Lieberman is about as good as it gets, while Lamont will never get past the starting gate. Lamont is the sacraficial lamb the Democrats are throwing against Joe. If Joe is so beatable, how come the high muckety-mucks of either party decided to pass on challenging Joe?
by liebermanlives 2006-02-16 05:24PM | 0 recs
Re: CT-Sen: First Poll

With Lamont having 6% name recognition, it's way too soon to proclaim him viable.  That doesn't mean he should be counted out, but actions speak louder than words.

by Steve M 2006-02-16 03:43PM | 0 recs
Re: CT-Sen: First Poll

Lamont is viable.  

by Matt Stoller 2006-02-16 04:05PM | 0 recs
Re: CT-Sen: First Poll

Perhaps I should clarify.  It's way too soon to proclaim him viable BASED ON THESE NUMBERS.  Proclaiming him viable based on getting to know him, deciding he is the "real deal," etc., is a legitimate point of view.

by Steve M 2006-02-16 10:07PM | 0 recs
Re: CT-Sen: First Poll

Hey Aldon, make sure that volunteer weekends are posted. There's some of us in DC who would be happy to make a couple weekend trips to help out.

Also, I assume you are the same Aldon from the CS Dev mailing list?

by ElitistJohn 2006-02-16 04:11PM | 0 recs
Sad.

This is just sad.

I am not a big Liebnerman fan but this is just wrong.

by dpANDREWS 2006-02-16 04:38PM | 0 recs
Re: CT-Sen: First Poll

Cool. Will do!

by ElitistJohn 2006-02-16 05:04PM | 0 recs
Re: CT-Sen: First Poll

Does anyone know what the polls looked like at this point in the Specter primary challenge?

by PatMN 2006-02-16 05:11PM | 0 recs
Re: CT-Sen: First Poll

They're up on SwingState somewhere.  Basically, a lot of the numbers line up, except for the fact that Toomey had already been running for the better part of the year and could rely on CFG for half his ad expenditures.

by Adam B 2006-02-16 06:18PM | 0 recs
Re: CT-Sen: First Poll

Yep, I've done a bunch of Lamont-Toomey comparisons at the SSP. You can dig through our CT archives to find `em pretty easily.

Here's something, which I think is more valuable than tea-leaf reading: At this point, Toomey's D/K was 81%. Lamont's is 93%. Not exactly a very material difference.

One thing that IS different is that Toomey had officially launched his campaign in February of 2003. That means that 8 months later (and six months before the primary), only 19% of the state knew him.

As Adam B at Kos put it, the question is, was Toomey able to take off because he had a running start? Or can Lamont launch as high just from standing still?

by DavidNYC 2006-02-16 06:46PM | 0 recs
Re: CT-Sen: First Poll

Interesting...I am going to drop a donation Lamont's way. I want to see if we can pull this off. Bold experimentation my friends, bold experimentation.

by PatMN 2006-02-16 07:25PM | 0 recs
Re: CT-Sen: First Poll

<<As Adam B at Kos put it, the question is, was Toomey able to take off because he had a running start? Or can Lamont launch as high just from standing still?>>

It's also worth remembering that Toomey had the benefit for Club for Growth going in and carpet-bombing the right-wing nuts into a frenzy.

by Politicalhack06 2006-02-17 10:53AM | 0 recs
Re: CT-Sen: First Poll

And I wouldn't be surprised to see MoveOn and DFA doing it for Lamont.

Add those member numbers in CT and you're well on your around a third of the total likely primary voters.

by ElitistJohn 2006-02-17 01:08PM | 0 recs
HUGE Difference

Is that this poll is registered democrats.  The number who vote in the primary is MUCH smaller and much more left.

Additionally, being a non-presidential year the number of primary voters is yet smaller and yet again more to the left.

by epv72 2006-02-16 05:17PM | 0 recs
Re: CT-Sen: First Poll

Lieberman being 18 points above 50 is "worrying"? Yeah, and the problems we've encountered in Iraq are a "matter of concern." And while we're at it, death is "likely."

Come on people. It's a non-starter. In the history of politics there's probably never been a challenger who started here and went on to win, short of some massive scandal that we have no inkling of whatsoever right now.

Go win the majority for the Dem Party. Then maybe Joe won't irritate you so much.

by ColoDem 2006-02-16 05:38PM | 0 recs
We have to have balls

like the Republicans do.  Specter now has a rightwing voting record.  He voted for Alito and Roberts too.  Win or lose, this may finally force Lieberman to actually earn his (D-CT) beside his name.

by jgarcia 2006-02-16 07:34PM | 0 recs
Re: CT-Sen: First Poll

If support for Ned Lamont is done in the hopes that it might scare Joe into taking his base into consideration more, that's one thing. If people are supporting Ned Lamont in the hopes that he actually has a snowball's chance in hell of winning, save your money.

by Epitome23 2006-02-16 11:20PM | 0 recs
Re: CT-Sen: First Poll

Lieberman will crush Ned Lamont in the primary. Its that simple. Lieberman is one of the most popular politicians in the history of Connecticut.

If Democrats were in charge, Lieberman would be less of a pain. His support of the Iraq war is annoying, but he did support all of the filibusters. He is a real democrat. He just likes to get his name in the paper. He is a very pro defense democrat.

by optimist 2006-02-17 04:44AM | 0 recs
Re: CT-Sen: First Poll

Er...no. He voted for cloture on Alito.

by ElitistJohn 2006-02-17 05:12AM | 0 recs
Real Democrat?

How many "real Democrat(s)" do you know who have Republican fundraisers or routinely get White House invitations and you're the only prominent Democratic attendee?

You know, if it walks like a duck it just may be a duck afterall.

by Scarce 2006-02-17 06:39AM | 0 recs

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