First Comprehensive 2006 House Forecast, Part III
by Chris Bowers, Fri Feb 10, 2006 at 10:49:21 AM EST
Part I: Seeks Ready For Pickup
Part II: Seats Where We Need Money
The third part of this series focuses on seats where a pickup is definitely possible, but where we have to wait and see if actual support materializes. Whereas the second part of this forecast looked generally at lean-Dem districts where we need money, this section generally looks at lean-right districts where an extraordinary circumstance has put a seat in play. Generally speaking, there are two such circumstances that impact all of these seats: open seats and the culture of corruption.
Part II: Seats Where We Need Money
The third part of this series focuses on seats where a pickup is definitely possible, but where we have to wait and see if actual support materializes. Whereas the second part of this forecast looked generally at lean-Dem districts where we need money, this section generally looks at lean-right districts where an extraordinary circumstance has put a seat in play. Generally speaking, there are two such circumstances that impact all of these seats: open seats and the culture of corruption.
Once again, these seats are listed in alphabetical order.
Later today, I'll close the forecast with a look at potentially vulnerable Dem seats, as well as potential Democratic targets below the top 30.
- FL-13. Dem: Christine Jennings
There are a few other Dems in this race, but Jennings is way up in terms of fundraising, so I'll just list her (and I am too lazy to track down the websites of all the other candidates). This is an open seat vacated by Katherine Harris so she can engage in her pathetic Senate campaign. It leans R, with a 46.8% Dem performance. Kerry got 44.0% here, and Gore pulled down 45.7%. this is doable, but in an even year it would be hard. The difficulty of this district is compounded via Republican Vernon Buchanan's large fundraising lead. Still, Jennings has a lot of money too, and there will actually be two well-funded Republicans in the primary, so this remains a possibility. - IN-02.
I am a little dubious about our chances in this district, as I am dubious of the DCCC's extensive focus on solid red, and still trending yet more red, Indiana and Kentucky. The DCCC seems to have six races in those two states in their top 40, five of which Bush won with more than 60%. Last year, Indiana tossed out a Democratic Governor who had an approval rating well over 50% in favor of wingnut Mitch Daniels, and yet we still are going to dump a huge load of our resources in these districts. That seems pretty nuts to me.
But I am going to include this district anyway, if only barely. The Democratic challenger is Joe Donnelly, who also ran in 2004. Republican Chris Chocola only managed 44.5% of the vote here in 2004and a recent internal poll showed Chocola only performing at 46% in the district. Donnelly has $186K to Chocola's 865K, so money and district trends are a problem. The district has a Democratic performance of 46.7%, and Kerry pulled 43.2% here. This is the weakest of the seven possibilities listed here. - IN-08. Dem: Brad Ellseworth
The bloody eighth. I have seen a poll in this district showing Ellsworth already tied with uber-wingnut Hostettler, and the same poll also showed Hostettler's re-elect numbers at a paltry 31% "re-elect Hostettler," 49% "elect someone else." Also, Ellsworth is crushing Hostettler in the money race. So why didn't I list this in the top twelve pickups? Because Kerry got 37.8% of the vote here, and Gore got 42.4%. Because, as I said above, Indiana is trending hard right, and dumped a popular Democratic governor in 2004. This is a lot like Tom DeLay's district, only without national news regularly swirling around the Democratic incumbent, no major third party challenge, and no non-partisan polling confirming danger for the Republican. Still, if I see those same poll numbers later in the year and from a non-partisan source, then I'll go ahead and move this one up. But right now, I'm not going to do that. - MN-06 Dems: Patty Wtterling, Elwyn Tinklenberg
This is an open seat vacated by Mark Kennedy. In has a Democratic performance in the mid-forties, and in 2004 Patty Wetterling gave Kennedy a good run for his money when she pulled in 46% of the vote. Wetterling has $218K and Tinklenberg has 184K. The three Republicans in the race all have almost identical amounts to the two Democrats. This won't be an easy race, But if Wetterling wins the nomination, she could definitately take this in a good Dem year. Her high name ID already gave her a solid lead in an Emily's List poll conducted in the spring of 2005. That isn't to say that Tinkleberg wouldn't hae a chance, just that I think Wetterling would have a slightly better chance. - NC-11. Dem: Heath Shuler
Shuler is looking to rebuild the jock caucus on Capitol Hill that once included Bill Bradley, Jack Kemp, Steve Largent, and JC Watts, but these days is pretty thin. Kerry only got 42.5% of the vote here, and the Democratic performance is, I think, optimistic at 46.4%. However, Shuler is crushing incumbent Charles Taylor in cash on hand (20-1 in favor of Shuler), and Taylor has some ethical problems involving Russian banks and the KGB. Juicy stuff. Considering Shuler's celebrity status, this has the making of a top tier race. I'd still like to see actual numbers later in the year showing it is top tier before I call it such, however. - OH-18. Dem: Joe Sulzer
Oh Bob Ney, thank you for running. Dems wouldn't have a good chance at this seat otherwise. However, Ney's well publicized ethical problems, and his rift with the state and national RNC, could make this strong Republican district one to watch. Ney has a decent, though not insurmountable, fundraising lead. Kerry got 42.4% of the vote here. - WI-08 Dems: Steve Kagen, Jamie Wall, Nancy Nusbaum
This is an open seat race. Kerry got 44.2% here, and the Demo performance is 45.2%. Steve Kagen gave himself $1.25M for this campaign, and one imagines that he could self-finance well beyond those numbers if necessary. The other Dems are doing well on money too, and I certainly do not want to support someone just because they are rich. Because this district leans fairly solidly R, because I haven't seen any numbers, and because we don't know who is going to win the primary yet, this race needs to stay in this tier. But there is clearly significant upward potential to be found in this district.
Later today, I'll close the forecast with a look at potentially vulnerable Dem seats, as well as potential Democratic targets below the top 30.
Tags: Democrats, forecasts, House 2006 (all tags)
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