I look forward to John McCain being the Republican nominee, even if Iraq were turned into a complete non-issue.

McCain is a crazy old man and I have pleasant dreams of Democratic operatives Swift-boating him to death (in all the worst possible connotations of that word).

...and she takes the same position as McCain that we should stay in Iraq, then voters won't have a reason to vote against McCain on Iraq.

McCain gets cut far too much slack from the press and public. That will change when he declares as a presidential candidate if the Dems have the cojones to take him to task. Rather than a principled maverick, McCain has recently proven himself to be nothing but a political slut who will get into bed with any nutty special interest if it might further his ambitions.

He also has a long history of taking very right-wing positions on economic issues which could doom his chances if an economic populist emerges -- from either party -- to challenge him. If that happens, expect McCain to run like George Bush, Sr. and pretend to be whatever the political situation demands.

I fell for his "Straight Talk" crap in 2000 and sent him a few bucks. I'm a wiser person now. He is and will forever be the last Republican to get another dollar or vote from me.

A) McCain's always been anti-choice. His "moderateness" stems from the campaign finance-type stuff. His "shift" has been an embrace of the falwells and other religious nutjobs, and a reluctance to criticize the president where he once would have.

B) I totally agree that the more-troops argument is a nonstarter. Sooner or later someone is going to point out that there aren't any more and ask him whether he supports reinstating the draft. He'll weasel and say there are more troops, but hopefully there will eventually be someone tough enough to follow up and say, well not really and what if things don't improve in 6 months with the extra 40k troops you send in, will you then call for a draft? If he says no the American people will recognize that he's just acting tough and posturing like GWB has been. If he says yes, he loses.

C) Nobody's really talking about it yet, but he's really old. Not that I encourage the dems to sink to that level, but people are going to bring up his age in sleazy ways and remind people that he's older than reagan who was senile and that octogenarians belong as greeters at walmart not with their shaky fingers on the button.

I guess the question is how nasty will the Republican primary get? Will a moderate like Guiliani take the McCain 2000 approach and bash McCain (irony of ironies there) for sucking up to Jerry Falwell? Will another contender like Romney throw McCain under the bus for wanting to increase troop levels in Iraq when the American people passed that idea by, literally, years ago?
Either way McCain is going to have some vulnerabilities. I think Obama vs. McCain would be fascinating considering the age/generatinal differences there. I'm in college and I've heard a lot of my friends who only casually follow politics say "McCain is too old." It really could come back to bite him.

I think you're giving the average voter too much credit. We're talking about the same electorate that voted in the majority for W in 2004. Other than possibly Iraq, most voters don't vote on issues at all. They vote for whatever makes them "feel good". They might cite issues when polled about why they voted a certain way, but that's just post-cognitive rationalization of a decision they had already made emotionally.

They voted for Bush in 2004 because they were scared, Republicans stoked that fear and promised that big brother Bush would make them feel safe. They voted for Democrats in 2006 because the malaise in this country has gotten so bad (worse than it's ever been in my memory) that it overwhelmed their fear.

A lot of them will vote for McCain because the "feel" that he's really a maverick and an independant and a nice honest straight-talking guy. It doesn't matter if it's not true. The pundits will be fellating him on their teevee and they'll believe it.

Ask a salesman or a marketing person. They'll tell you facts don't matter. Making a sale is 95% about emotional appeals.

But I'm not afraid of McCain because he's not getting the nod. I'm a lot more worried about Mike Huckabee.

We've seen over and over again that most Americans agree with the Democrats on most substantial issues but that they either aren't voting issues or they just "don't trust" the Democrats. Everyone trusts McCain. That's why I'm terrified.

As someone who tries to stay up on whats going on in  Wing-nutt land, despite the massive migraines that always accompany any lenghty visit to Redstate or Powerline, I have serious doubts that McCain can get the GOP's nomination.

McCain has committed cardinal sins, by questioning the wisdom of Bush taxes cuts, "trying to give Terrorists constitutional rights", and his stance on torture. Nevermind that these stands were merely token opposition that had no real effect, (tax cuts still in effect, signing statments on torture, etc.) the right nevertheless views McCain with deep distrust.

Here's the good news: McCain has done more "flip-flops" this past year than a circus acrobat on speed. Whoever emerges as St. John's competition will (should) beat him senseless about the head and shoulders on this one issue alone.

It's not that McCain has failed to take positions, it's that he's taken conflicting positions on sooo many issues! Good Republicans who remember the Kerry campaign will see that as a mortal sin (not because he speaks with a fork-ed toungue, but that his flippity-flopping will make him un-electable in the general election).

Republicans want, Republcans NEED a winner, not a whiner. McCain will not be the Republican nominee in 2008. Republicans are more likely to nominate "Rudee, Rudee, Rudee" because they view him as a "winner" (even though in reality, he's a "wiener").

I think you analysis of McCain's strategy might be overlooking a couple of things.

First, it's clear that McCain decided 6 years ago that -- if we was going to become President -- the first thing he had to do was win the Republican primary. Looking at the poll numbers you're providing, we see 64% of Republicans agreeing that troops should only be withdrawn as the security situation improves. My unsubstantiated guess is that that support is even higher among Republicans likely to vote in the primaries.

So, clearly, by supporting this issue he's increasing his appeal with primary voters.

Second, I would be surprised if the withdrawal from Iraq has not either started or been finished by the time the 2008 elections roll around. If that's the case, then it becomes a complete non-issue in the general election: McCain benefits in the primaries because he's blunted the "he's not conservative enough" meme in the Republican rank-and-file, and the issue is irrelevant in the general election.

Worst case scenario: Bush leaves us quagmired (to one extent or another) in Iraq. McCain can then re-position himself easily by saying, "Well, in my assessment, progress in Iraq warrants a withdrawal of troops ASAP. If I'm elected, I'll start that process by February." That nullifies the issue without actually contradicting the position he's currently advocating.

The Alexandrian

McCain's plan isn't to put 20,000 additional troops in Iraq.  His plan is to keep saying that, and in another year come out with "If they had only listened to me then..."

This is just a set up for an "I told you so" moment down the road.  Plus, it nicely fits into his maverick media image.  People are hearing from the media "McCain knows this isn't popular, but it is what he believes and he is going with his convictions."

You would think that the American people wouldn't want someone like that after Bush, but they always seem to yearn for it.

The problem is that like Bush in 2000, the Media will gloss over McCain's negatives. He's their darling. They love him. The only one they love more is...yep, Barack Obama.

Obama dosent have a shot...

I think we need to draft someone to attack him at every turn - specfically, Paul Hackett - Hackett is someone who has real crediblity, and he can take McCain on at every level and kick his ass all the time.  

That would really shut McCain down

"a foregone conclusion that the senior Senator from Arizona will become the 44th President of the United States"

You start with a bad conclusion and it goes downhill from there.  Many do think McCain is the leading Republican candidate and many polls tell us he beats all possible Democratic candidates...is that what you meant to say?

As to your question did you mean to ask why do people think McCain is going to be a hard presidential candidate to beat?

Easy...he directly addresses the major problems US faces and that appeals to voters...and it should.

1. Campaign Finance Reform - McCain-Feingold bill.

2. Deficit/Debt - Kerry-McCain bill.

3. Energy/oil - Kerry-McCain bill.

McCain is unique in that he has actual legislation he can point to on how he would directly address major issues.

Democrat who runs against him has to be able to match McCain in proposals to solve US problems.

There are good points in the article. I would like to supplement them with some information:

I am a 2 tour Vietnam Veteran who recently retired after 36 years of working in the Defense Industrial Complex on many of the weapons systems being used by our forces as we speak.

If you are interested in a view of the inside of the Pentagon procurement process from Vietnam to Iraq please check the posting at my blog entitled, "Odyssey of Armements"

http://www.rosecoveredglasses.blogspot.c om

The Pentagon is a giant,incredibly complex establishment,budgeted in excess of $500B per year. The Rumsfelds, the Adminisitrations and the Congressmen come and go but the real machinery of policy and procurement keeps grinding away, presenting the politicos who arrive with detail and alternatives slanted to perpetuate itself.

How can any newcomer, be he a President, a Congressman or even the Sec. Def. to be - Mr. Gates- understand such complexity, particulary if heretofore he has not had the clearance to get the full details?

Answer- he can't. Therefor he accepts the alternatives provided by the career establishment that never goes away and he hopes he makes the right choices. Or he is influenced by a lobbyist or two representing companies in his district or special interest groups.

From a practical standpoint, policy and war decisions are made far below the levels of the talking heads who take the heat or the credit for the results.

This situation is unfortunate but it is ablsolute fact. Take it from one who has been to war and worked in the establishment.

This giant policy making and war machine will eventually come apart and have to be put back together to operate smaller, leaner and on less fuel. But that won't happen unitil it hits a brick wall at high speed.

We will then have to run a Volkswagon instead of a Caddy and get along somehow. We better start practicing now and get off our high horse. Our golden aura in the world is beginning to dull from arrogance.

I want John McCain to be the Republican candidate. Heck I don't just want it, I have wet dreams about it. The Democratic ads will write themselves:

"If you liked what George W. Bush did for America, then you want to vote for John McCain...."

Lots of clips exist showing McCain saying we need to have more troops in Iraq, clips of McCain saying things are going well in Iraq, clips of McCain supporting Bush on a plethora of unpopular issues.

McCain = Bush.

That's the campaign, pure and simple.