"But where does Bayh's support go?"

LOL! Tens of people up for grabs...

I wonder if anyone has crunched the numbers on what turnout would likely be among the black electorate if Obama was the candidate, and how that would affect the outcome?  I assume that turnout from that community would be huge, but I don't know enough about the numbers to understand the implications.

TYhe idea of Gore is just silly. The American pulbic isnt interested in Al Gore. He had his chance, it didnt happen and since than some of his behavior will only come back to haunt him. Its obvious who the biug 3 are, Clinton, Edwards and Obama. Personally, I thikn Clinton is poison. I think Edwards and Obama are better choices. However, I really like Vilsack. There is just so much to like about the guy. I think he would make a great candidate.

Saw him in Iowa last week. The field won't be missing him.

I don't know that Bayh bowing out really moves the field at all.

Perhaps Vilsack, being another centrist, Midwestern, somewhat unexciting politician can pick up some Bayh supporters.

But I tend to agree with the hilarious pringle comment above.  Not much was there.

I don't think the "tiers" of candidates have shaken out yet.  Its a year+ before the primaries start and we don't even know how the "money primary" shakes out.  Where does Obama get $40 - $50 million from?  Is there a reason for the big contributors to back Obama?  In other words, do the big contributors actually think he can win the presidency?  Does he have an actual message (as opposed to just being a fresh, new face) that would get small dollar contributor money like Dean did?  Dean had anti-Iraq war when no one else was anti-Iraq war.

The Senators can carry over their campaign warchests but I heard that governors cannot do that and I heard that Edwards and Clark cannot legally even begin to raise money until they announce.  

I am a little surprised that Bayh is dropping out since he is one of the few who had a good bit of money in the bank which would have gotten him on the air in Iowa and NH.

I think another will drop out shortly.

It is increasingly looking like a Clinton Obama Edwards race. The odds are very much against any others because of the fundrasing, polls, and amount of support the big 3 will have. Clinton Obama and Edwards would all have to stumble very badly for someone else to get into play.

The center-right Dems are running out of guys fast.

One has to assume Obama benefits most, since he has the most appeal to the "sensible center".

And, yes, Richardson gains because that's just one less personality profile every month he has to compete with.

On a side note, does anyone else think that with Bayh gone, Lieberman might actually take another stab at saving us from ourselves?

The mere specter of Obama is scaring the crap out of everyone.  I guess that weekend were Obama was on his "book tour" in NH and CRUSHED Bayh might ahve been the moment he got the clue and decided to fold his tent.

...because what's the first thing a lot of males will think of upon hearing his name?  Hint:  It has to do with a "sack."  

I'm glad they realize we don't want them.

I think it would be interesting to see a Edwards/Obama ticket, but I don't know if that would to appeal to all.

Bayh won't run:

"As you know I have been exploring helping the people of my state and our country in a different capacity," he wrote. "After talking with family and friends over the past several days, I have decided that this is not the year for me to run for President and I will not be a candidate for the presidency in 2008.

"It wasn't an easy decision but it was the right one for my family, my friends and my state. I have always prided myself on putting my public responsibilities ahead of my own ambitions."

He conceded the odds were against him, describing himself as a "relatively unknown candidate."

"This path -- and these long odds -- would have required me to be essentially absent from the Senate for the next year instead of working to help the people of my state and the nation," he said in the statement.

"There may be no campaign in the near future, but there is much work to be done. When the Senate returns, I will focus on the issues that matter to the people of my state and are critical to the future of the nation including reducing our dependence on foreign oil, creating opportunity for middle class families, and implementing a national security strategy that is both tough and smart."

A few of our candidates could have used some of your campaign funds. Couldn't you see two months ago that your presidential bid was not going anywhere?

You're all missing the real story here. Any joker can point out that Bayh at 1% in the polls. Anyone who's read the reports coming out of Iowa knows that he was making (albeit slowly) real inroads there. However, no one had worked harder than Bayh at fundraising over the last two years however. Bayh's fundraising strength was making it difficult for people like Vilsack, Biden, Richardson, and yes, even Edwards to get fundraising traction.

What's separating the first and second tiers isn't polling - it's fundraising.

When will Clark announce his intentions?

On a similar vein to what global yoke was discussing, it looks like Obama, if he runs, will be the only African American candidate in the '08 primaries.  If African American voters show up en masse and vote overwhelmingly for him the way they did for Jesse Jackson in '88 (but not for Al Sharpton in '04), he will win a lot of southern primaries.  The phenomenon in southern primaries could be similar to that in '88, which features a black candidate getting almost all the black vote (Jackson, Obama) against a southern regional candidate (Gore, Edwards assuming he runs and assuming Clark and Gore don't run as other southerners).  That might enable a white northerner (Dukakis, perhaps Hillary Clinton) to win with pluralities.

A pairing that could get some votes.....that is if the O man doesn't wilt from the prolonged media expousure and eventual push-back from the neocons.

I have some cool o stuff on my blog....check it out.

I think the rather unexpected withdrawl of Evan Bayh does help everybody but Senators Clinton & Obama. It also says to Al Gore that he has a real shot but he will have to work a little.  It's a boost for Bill Richardson too.

There are a lot of serious people who care deeply about foreign policy who are skeptical of the frontrunners. A lot of 'em have money. If he runs, Wes Clark will be a natural for this constituency. Evan Bayh was taken very seriously by national security (in an expanded sense!) Democrats. There is not just a little more oxygen for the non-frontrunners.

Clearly, the first tier now is Clinton, Obama & Edwards. That probably won't change till Iowa. Someone else will do better than expeected and it just might be non-Senator, General Wesley Clark.

Come on guys, it's an obvious headline.  But sometimes obvious is good.

Bayh was the only person talked up as a Democratic candidate I definitely would not have voted for in the primary (unless he had it effectively sewn up by the time it got to my state's primary and all beating him there would accomplish would be to humiliate him and generate lots of negative publicity before his formal nomination at the convention).  This was because he voted for Bush's idiotic 2001 tax cut.  Democrats should've united against Bush on that the same way Republicans united against Bill Clinton's '93 budget reconciliation bill.  Instead, twelve Democratic senators, including Bayh, voted for it.  As a result, Bush got a big early victory, and now the only ways Democrats can clean up the fiscal mess when they take over the presidency are either to let the tax cuts expire in 2010 -- which Republicans will call a "tax increase" and beat them over the head with -- or to pass a separate tax increase, which Republicans will also beat them over the head with.  It's a lot easier to oppose a tax cut than to support a tax increase, but because Bayh and others wouldn't do the first, they or their successors will have to do the second, at a huge political cost.  Because of Senators like Bayh, the next Democratic president will have to spend a huge amount of political capital to fix a Republican deficit, and won't be able to enact a lot of their desired spending increases.  It's the same thing that happened to Bill Clinton.  

My vote for VP is Sebelius.  She's got the Kansas Dems fired up and winning, not to mention that she's actually a good governor.