Contesting 435 Seats in 2008

One of the few disappointments of this last cycle -- and there weren't too many -- was that despite the great efforts to field Democratic candidates in every congressional district in the country California's 42nd district was among those in which a Republican incumbent was allowed to run unopposed.

To be clear, CA-42 is not necessarily Democrat country; George W. Bush carried the district with 59 percent of the vote in 2000 and 62 percent in 2004. But it is represented by one of the less scrupulous members of Congress, Gary Miller, who could have at least been held to account for his actions and perhaps even driven out of Congress this year. Local activist Mark Hull-Richter attempted to mount a write-in campaign for the Democratic nomination, which would have at least put a name on the ballot on November 7, but he ultimately did not have the time or resources to get his name out to voters (you may remember our interview with Mark back in June).

In August Chris wrote a fairly extensive treatise on why we need to run candidates in every district, focusing specifically on CA-42. I suggest you go back and take a look at it. Otherwise, this week both the Los Angeles Times and The Hill have rather scathing looks at Rep. Miller that are worth mentioning. First, The Times' William Heisel writing under the headline "Ex-aides allege abuse of power".

With community activists packed into the Monrovia Community Center one winter night in 2000, U.S. Rep. Gary Miller (R-Diamond Bar) implored City Council members to purchase 165 acres he owned in the foothills and turn the land into a wilderness preserve.

Earlier that day, according to interviews with former Miller staff members and official correspondence reviewed by The Times, Miller asked one staffer to find a way to place one of the councilmen -- a pawnshop owner with no parks experience -- on the prestigious National Park System Advisory Board.

The aide said he was told to "make it a priority."

Miller then continued to push for the councilman's appointment even after staff members warned him that trying to secure the park board seat for the councilman could appear to be a bribe, internal memos show.

The move was one of many that Miller has made over the years in which he brought his congressional muscle to bear on personal business matters, according to the former staff members and the correspondence from Miller's congressional office -- handwritten notes, letters on Miller's congressional letterhead and e-mails.

The Hill's Susan Crabtree also details efforts, both by Miller and also perhaps on his behalf, to secure federal earmarks for the city of Monrovia to buy property that he owned. In short, this guy has a serious ethics, if not corruption problem and we -- the Netroots, the Democratic Party, and House Democrats -- were remiss for not actively recruiting a candidate to run against him this year. This mistake cannot and must not be repeated this year, either in California's 42nd district or anywhere else. There can be real debates over where the DCCC and other organizations should direct their money, but for the Democrats not to even put up a candidate with as much baggage as Rep. Miller is just not right.

Though I went to school not far from Miller's district, I'm not entirely keyed into the politics of his district. To the Southern Californians in our midst, are there any names from this Inland Valley who might be able or willing to go up against Garry Miller? And to everyone around the country in congressional districts currently held by Republicans -- particularly those in the 10 districts we did not contest this year (AL-6, AZ-6, CA-42, FL-12, LA-6, MS-3, TX-11, VA-4, VA-6, and WI-6), but not limited to them -- start thinking of some names of people you'd like to see run for Congress in 2008. Already have a name? Great. Let us know in the comments and tell us why you think they should take the plunge.

The Netroots can play an even larger role in setting the slate of Democratic candidates around the country in 2008 than ever before. But it will take a lot of effort. So it's not a bad idea to get started early.

Tags: CA-42, House 2008 (all tags)

Comments

33 Comments

Re: Contesting 435 Seats in 2008

Yep, it looks like our leading potential candidate is SB Mayor Pat Morris.

Steve Maviglio penned a breakdown of potential candidates last week.  He wrote:

San Bernardino Mayor Pat Morris. Morris would be the best hope for Dems to make inroads in this seat. He is a former 30 year Superior Court Judge and was just elected in a runoff in February 2005 to be Mayor, but is receiving glowing reviews for his work. Despite a crowded ballot of measures this November, Morris pushed a quarter cent sales tax increase for the city to fund additional police officers. The measure passed with more than 2-1 support. Coincidentally, Morris ran last year with Lewis's support and endorsement.

This would be a very tough seat for us to win with a 47-33 registration advantage to the Reeps.

by juls 2006-12-13 11:16AM | 0 recs
Re: Contesting 435 Seats in 2008

Juls -

The post from Mavig you linked was on Jerry Lewis' seat, the 41st...did he do another one on the 42nd?

by Reelpolitik 2006-12-13 08:46PM | 0 recs
Jerry Lewis in CA-41

That is a seat we need to challange next time. Jerry Lewis has spent over $800k in legal fees to defend himself against accusations. As the chairman of appropriations, he was good friends with Duke Cunningham. Duke just wasn't as careful as Jerry, it appears.

We did have a name on the ballot, but there was virtually no presense, or fund raising.

by Tuba Les 2006-12-13 09:59PM | 0 recs
Re: Contesting 435 Seats in 2008

Whoops.  Hard keeping those corrupt Republicans in CA straight.  We have a lot of them you know...

by juls 2006-12-14 08:47AM | 0 recs
Can we talk about 2007 also?

There are going to be municipal races in Indiana, Illinois and many other states in 2007.  

I'm excited about 2008, but we do have quite a few state and local races in 2007.  

And the best candidates for higher offices like the Congress are those who have held office as mayors or state office representing part of the district.

by ManfromMiddletown 2006-12-13 11:24AM | 0 recs
MS-3

MS-3 may be an open seat in 2008. If Thad Cochran retires from the Senate the incumbent Chip Pickering in MS-3 will be running for the Senate.

by robliberal 2006-12-13 11:50AM | 0 recs
Re: Contesting 435 Seats in 2008

This is step one.  Beyond that, every district should have at least the potential for a race.  This means at least a minimal amount of funding.  The difference between say a Louis Vandenberg (spent $2,188 in CA-44) and CA-42 is pretty slight.  OTOH, candidates like Wendy Wilde and Stephen Harrison spent only a bit more (well, $117,000 more in Stephen's case) and really drained Republican bank accounts.

There isn't much difference, either between Stephen Harrison or Wendy Wilde and David Loesback and Carol Shea-Porter.  Make em sweat.  Make em work.

by David Kowalski 2006-12-13 11:58AM | 0 recs
I agree that every Republican

...Congressperson should have a challenger in 2008, but what are you asking the average person to do?

by EricJaffa 2006-12-13 12:35PM | 0 recs
Re: I agree that every Republican

What he's asking is that, especially if you live in one of these districts that didn't have a Democratic challenger this year, or usually doesn't have one, you should keep your eyes/ears out for people who could run.  Come up with a list of mayors, state representatives, celebrities, fire chiefs, professors, doctors, lawyers, whoever - and try to convince them to run.

by Fran for Dean 2006-12-13 02:09PM | 0 recs
Re: I agree that every Republican

You left out teachers and nurses!  

I have a long-ago vague memory of a study saying that those were the two previous careers most likely to get respect from voters for novice politicians.

by Nina Katarina 2006-12-14 04:16AM | 0 recs
Re: Contesting 435 Seats in 2008

I live in the District and I doubt that he can be beaten anytime soon. Corruption, if that's your attack, didn't work in Louisiana where it was blatant and I don't think in general it will work in most of America.

Politicians are assumed, incorrectly, to be crooked by much of the electorate.

In Millers District, he's well based in a very Republican District with very high name recognition and acceptance.

If we would start the 2 or 3 cycle process of building a base in that District then I believe we need a person of substance who is willing to invest 4 years or more in a constant campaign.

And in the beginning, as I have said in many other places, that candidacy can't have 'winning' as it's only goal. The more important goal, since the deck is truly stacked against a Dem Challenger, is to build an organization that grows registration, especially Absentee Registration, and builds a Candidacy that can continue if the first try doesn't get it.

Miller wasn't challenged by some of the more obvious people because his seat is almost unwinnable. And the Party, nor the blogsphere, is forgiving of a campaign that can't raise serious money. I had a post up about one candidate that lost and I was crucified because this candidate didn't raise 'enough' money in a District written off by The Party and others.

Major Donors and PACs don't contribute to campaigns that are tilting at windmills. They just don't.

The Party won't support a Red District run unless the polling is within 5 % or so.

So how does a Candidate put together the professsion campaign necessary to beat a Gary Miller?

The other factor that is huge here is the media cost. In the Special Election for CA-48 where I on staff, we were told a single point of media (1 pt) was $995. The cable companies won't even start a campaign, for commercial or political, for a buy less than 10K. And a single buy does nothing. It would take  a huge media effort to impact that many voters in the most expensive media market.

Go against Miller and you can't use any broadcast media unless you have a huge budget. And how are you going to get the huge budget if you don't get the party backing and the big contributors since they believe it's a losing cause?

Allocation of assets and talent is a reality in the Marketplace of commerce and politics. If you want the best to run there has to be the financial backing for it. That hasn't really happened in the Red District runs.

The Cook Partisan index rates this as R +10. That's huge advantage when The Party won't back a R +1 race.

To me it boils down to a Party building effort for years to get to a competitive place. This is a conservative area. It's not like South Orange County where the registration is changing because of the planned communities.

(sorry for the typos. I've about three things happening at once.)

by BigDog 2006-12-13 01:00PM | 0 recs
Re: Contesting 435 Seats in 2008

I will say this about the 435 strategy -- it brings enthusiasm in parts of country I call "missionary territory" for Democrats.  In the past election, there were FIVE Democrats fighting (literally) to the death for the chance to get creamed by Duncan Hunter.  It was amazing -- and six months after the primary, we locals were still talking about it.

by Jim Treglio 2006-12-13 01:10PM | 0 recs
Re: Contesting 435 Seats in 2008
I live in TX-11.  This is the district that was hand-carved to give Midland a member of congress.
It's a sprawling district, without a single Democratic county.  In fact, I would doubt if ANY of the counties were better than 2-1 Republican to Democrat.  In other words, many counties are 3-1 or 4-1 R to D.  

One county (Glasscock) has the distinction of giving W his highest voting percentage in the nation in 2000 - 92%.  Midland only gave W 86% that year!


Midland favored Goldwater in 1964 over native son LBJ.  We are talking hard core, committed Republicans here.


But, the district is becoming more Hispanic, but many of them vote Republican.  So perhaps in 20 years...................

by Allmaya 2006-12-13 01:20PM | 0 recs
Re: Contesting 435 Seats in 2008

I know this is the last possible solution, but how about someone moving into the district to run?  One year in my district (CT-02) the Republicans had a guy move in to the district to challenge the Dem Congressman.  He didn't win, but at least he ran a campaign, got his points out, made the Dem work for it.

by MVD 2006-12-13 02:50PM | 0 recs
Re: Contesting 435 Seats in 2008

I grew up in CA-42 (in Diamond Bar) and would love to find somebody to run against Gary Miller.  There is a huge Asian-American population in that district that probably weakly vote Republican but I think could be persuaded to vote Democrat.  My parents used to vote fairly regularly Republican but after Iraq, will probably never do so again.

I once dreamt of running for this seat myself but went to law school on the East Coast and haven't lived back on the west coast for several years.  But if I ever go back...

by mgunja 2006-12-13 02:57PM | 0 recs
Re: Contesting 435 Seats in 2008

Ummm, challenging for all 435 House seats would be nice, sure, but could we at least challenge for all the Senate seats this time around?  Failing to contest 10 House seats in '06 is nothing to be ashamed of.  I think the GOP conceded at least that many to us.  But we had NO candidate to oppose Dick Lugar for Senate in Indiana, and that is embarrassing, particularly when you realize that we flipped three House seats in Indiana this year giving us a 5-4 majority in that state's House delegation.

by gas28man 2006-12-13 03:50PM | 0 recs
Re: Contesting 435 CA-42

Well, I was a CA-42 voter last election.  I moved one mile and am now in a different disctrict.  Nonetheless, it pained me to see Gary Miller sitting there on the ballot, especially since I had arranged some protests against him for MoveOn.

Anyway, the former mayor of Whittier, Owen Newcomer, might just be a possibility.  

http://www.owennewcomer.com/index.html

(Full disclosure, I have met him and have some work affiliation with him, though I have never actually had a long conversation with him).

Whittier is a lot like the district Miller represents.  A large, older, White, affluent population, and a large, less affluent, mostly Latino, population.

While Newcomer lost his bid to go to CA assembly, the U.S. congress is an entirely different type of race things can happen in these races that are entirely unexpected.

I have no idea whether he would even be willing to run, but he is a good guy and might play well to a fairly broad range of people.

by andrethgiant 2006-12-13 03:55PM | 0 recs
Re: Contesting 435 CA-42

Owen was up against a lot in his primary run for the Assembly.  Newcomer was running to replace termed-out Ron Calderon.  Calderon's brother Charles (who'd held the seat before, and had been a State Senator) ran against Newcomer in the primary, and won.

Owen faced the Calderon dynasty with real Wellstonian politics, personally knocking doors across the district.  Tens of thousands of them.  I don't know if he made his goal of talking to every likely primary-voting household, but last I check he was coming up on 20,000 doors he had PERSONALLY knocked.

Campaigning with that kind of personal contact would go far in a district with an entrenched incumbent.  I'd be very interested to see Owen take a crack at it...if it is his district.

by Reelpolitik 2006-12-13 08:33PM | 0 recs
Re: Contesting 435 CA-42

I agree with all of the above.  Some of the repsonses here indicate that the demographics of the district are overwhelmingly against a Dem.  And, yes, media is expensive, but the point is to challenge, both in ideas and money, the hold the Republicans have had on this district.

I'm no insider, so what do I know?  Not much, but there are a lot of people who are looking for an alternative.  In my opinion Newcomer would have a better chance of unseating Miller than he had against Calderon.  Not good odds, but better ones.

by andrethgiant 2006-12-14 07:11AM | 0 recs
Re: Contesting 435 CA-42

Found something out...

Unfortunately, this conversation is made moot by the fact that Newcomer lives in Grace Napolitano's district.

The candidate search continues...

by Reelpolitik 2006-12-14 10:35AM | 0 recs
VA-04 is a tough one
The Gop gerrymander of Virginia has made it difficult and Chesapeake has been trending Gop for the last couple of decades. Allen-R won it by 10 points, Kilgore by only 1 point.
But, I'd love to see us field a candidate there, because, ya never know, it could be successful.
by Predictor 2006-12-13 04:17PM | 0 recs
Re: Contesting 435 Seats in 2008

What if we created a campaign fund to be divided evenly between the winners of the Democratic primary from each of these districts?  Anyone who runs for these seats will be taking on a largely thankless job.  This way, they will at least have some financing for their campaign.  

by gunnar 2006-12-13 04:38PM | 0 recs
Re: Uncontested Campaign Fund

I really like this idea.  I'm not exactly a bid donor who could help with it, but I think it's an idea that has a lot of merit.  

by johnowens2 2006-12-13 05:16PM | 0 recs
Re: Contesting 435 Seats in 2008

It would be fantastic if there was at least a small amount of funds available for each district that could be used to build infrastructure. Running actual campaigns would, over a few cycles, likely build up a list of recurring local donors so that the basic funding would eventually be locally derived - and not just replace the original outside funding but surpass it and continue to grow also.

It would a great boon for under funded county parties if they were able to count on sustained small monthly donations and volunteer assistance from locals.

by Quinton 2006-12-13 07:52PM | 0 recs
NEBRASKA - 02

Grassroots Hero Jim Esch will be running again in Omaha, NE.  

In 2004 the challenger to do-nothing congressman Lee Terry (4 term, R), was a female state senator who spent 1 million to Terry's 1.3 million and got about 36% of the vote.  Ulgy.  

But the district is winnable, with a good grassroots effort.  

In 2006, Jim Esch, a 31-year-old Young Democrat ran, he spent about 300k to Terry's 1 million, ran almost no TV, and won over 45%.  He actually did better than Scott Kleeb or Maxine Moul did, both candidates who were talked about as much more realistic chances of winning.  

He was also one of the only Congressional Candidates in the country to write his own blog, www.jimesch.org, for the entire campaign, and made headlines for calling the Sec. Def. an "idiot" on it, and calling for his resignation.  

What's my point?  

In 2008, I really hope to see some netroots support behind Jim Esch in Nebraska.  He's got everything it takes to win, and with just a few more resources it would be a great upset.  

Also, Terry is probably stepping down to run for senate, so if we can get Jim into a good enough position now, he'll be the front-runner when the seat opens up.  

by johnowens2 2006-12-13 05:22PM | 0 recs
Re: Contesting 435 Seats in 2008

Van Tamom, who showed a lot of guts and spirit in an equally tough race for Assembly lives in Miller's District.

He's a young guy, with a lot of energy and ideas...who could tap into the Asian/Pacific-Islander community "mgunja" mentioned above (he's a first generation Cambodian-American).

This Assembly race was his first shot at public office, and he learned a lot and became a strong candidate over the course of the campaign.  He could continue to build on that, while tapping into the brewing outrage over this shameful deal.

by Reelpolitik 2006-12-13 08:41PM | 0 recs
Re: Contesting 435 Seats in 2008

I honestly don't think any democrat will run in the Pa 19th district in the near future after the last election. It's probally the only district in pennsylvania that is almost completely unwinnable for a democrat. Almost meaning that the republican gets caught in a major sex scandal with a goat or in a homosexual relation with a house page

by orin76 2006-12-13 09:12PM | 0 recs
Re: Contesting 435 Seats in 2008/PA 19

Phil Avillo was a credible candidate who ran a good race and made Todd Platts actually campaign and spend money. The results weren't good, but now Avillo has some name recognition and I'm expecting him to run again. His campaign signs are being saved. I may know more by tomorrow.

by joyful alternative 2006-12-14 03:11AM | 0 recs
Re: Contesting 435 Seats in 2008

I'm sorry candidates that don't reach the right side of 35% aren't credible, in change years and had more money than both Hillard and Barr combined. I know Phil he's a nice guy but he's the wrong guy to be running in the 19th congressional district.

by orin76 2006-12-14 11:28AM | 0 recs
Re: Contesting 435 Seats in 2008

Who'd be the right guy?

I'm way up here in the NE corner of the district, a chunk that has more Democrats than the rest of Cumberland County, the piece that was part of the 17th and was split off in the last redistricting to make sure George Gekas beat Tim Holden. (And no, the redistricting didn't work for the Republicans.)

Gekas used to show his face around the township a lot. Platts hasn't been here yet that I know of, but Avillo has been in the area a lot, including our local Democratic picnic. And he's the only Democratic  personage in the district I've ever met above the pay grade of Rick Rovegno, our D county commissioner, even though I attend a lot of party functions and fund-raisers.

So who else is a possibility from the southern end? Remember, the 17th is nearly as red as the 19th, and Holden ran unopposed this time. If we can get a D in, we could do a Holden.

by joyful alternative 2006-12-14 06:05PM | 0 recs
Re: Contesting 435 Seats in 2008

No the 17th is no way as red as the 19th in any stretch of the imagination.  First of All the 17th has Harrisburg. Second no Democrat has gotten close to 40% in the 19th district since the late 1970's. For all intense and purposes you have to win York county to win the 19th district or at least come real close. It's pretty hard for a Democrat because outside of the city of York and a few of the very close suburbs  the county is rock ribbed conservative. Second the voting rolls in York county aren't accurate there actually are fewer Democrats on the voting rolls then there really are. Some of the wards have turnouts in the low 20's not because  
they didn't turn out people but because that actually is full turnout, i.e. the voting rolls are full of dead people and people that don't even live in the area anymore.  

Phil's primary problem is what makes him attractive to you.  What makes Phil unelectable is the fact he's a Liberal College professor. The ideas you find so endearing in him are what make him so unelectable in that district. The only person that probably has enough good will and enough money and probably has enough backing to win in that District is Thomas wolf if he choose to run.  

by orin76 2006-12-14 09:14PM | 0 recs
Re: Contesting 435 Seats in 2008

Thing is, Phil isn't a liberal college professor. He's strongly antichoice, which would keep me off his bandwagon if I had a field of candidates to pick from. He ran as one of the Band of Brothers, and all the military stuff frankly has no appeal for me. He's taught at York College, which treats its faculty as all instructors, with no publication requirement or professorial rights. I'm just awfully happy to have had a Democratic candidate on the ballot, and that he was a credible candidate and worked hard and raised a good deal of money in this district is just icing on the cake.

Who is Thomas Wolf? I never heard of him, but I wouldn't have if he's south of Carlisle.

Since we're now on p. 4, we should probably take this discussion elsewhere.

And Harrisburg has only 47,000 people.

by joyful alternative 2006-12-15 06:26AM | 0 recs
Re: Contesting 435 Seats in 2008

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porno1
porno2
porno3
porno4
porno5
porno6
porno7
porno8
porno9
porno10
porno11
porno12
porno13
porno14
porno15
porno16
porno17
porno18
porno19
porno20
porno21
porno22
porno23
porno24
porno25
porno26
porno27
porno28
porno29
porno30

33
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49
50
51
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54
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61
62

1-shareaza
2-skype
3-sms-gratuit
4-sodomie
5-soluce
6-spectacle
7-sport
8-sportive
9-sportive
10-sportive
11-spybot
12-suce
13-suceuse
14-sudoku-gratuit
15-tarot-gratuit
16-tarot
17-tatouage
18-tatouages
19-teen
20-tele
21-telechargement-antivirus
23-telechargement-chansons
22-telechargement-chanson
24-telechargement-divx
25-telechargement-emule
26-telechargement-film-gratuit
27-telechargement-film
28-telechargement-gratuit
29-telechargement-kazaa
30-telechargement-logiciel-gratuit
31-telechargement-logiciel
32-telechargement-logiciels
33-telechargement-messenger
34-telechargement-movie
36-telechargement-msn
35-telechargement-mp3
37-telechargement-music
38-telechargement-musique
39-telechargement-nero
40-telechargement-parole
41-telechargement-paroles
42-telechargement-porn
43-telechargement-porno
44-telechargement-sex
45-telechargement-sexe
46-telechargement-x
47-telechargement-xxx
48-telechargement
49-telechargement
50-telecharger-antivirus
51-telecharger-antivirus
52-telecharger-chanson
53-telecharger-chansons
54-telecharger-divx
55-telecharger-emule
56-telecharger-film
57-telecharger-gratuit
58-telecharger-jeu-gratuit
59-telecharger-xxx
60-telecharger-movie
61-telecharger-sex
62-telecharger-nero
63-telecharger-sexe
64-telecharger-parole
65-telecharger-paroles
66-telecharger-porno
67-telecharger-x
68-telecharger-messenger
69-telecharger-music

1-telecharger
2-telecharger
3-telecharger
4-telecharger-logiciel
5-telecharger-logiciels
6-telecharger-mp3
7-telecharger-msn
8-telecharger-musique
9-telecharger-porn
10-television
11-tennis
12-tit
13-toon
14-tourisme
15-touristique
16-tout-gratuit
18-transsexuelle
17-traducteur-gratuit
19-truc
20-tuning
21-tv
22-vacances
23-video
24-video
25-video-comique
26-video-gratuit
27-video-porno
28-video-porno
29-video-porno-gratuit
30-videos
31-videos-comiques
32-video-sexe-gratuit
33-video-sex-gratuit
34-video-x-gratuit
35-vlc
36-voiture
37-voyage
38-voyager
39-voyeur
40-wallpaper
41-webcam
42-winamp
43-winmx
44-winrar
45-winzip
46-x
47-x
48-x-gratuit
49-xxx
50-xxx-gratuit
51-yoga

by juanjuanmak 2007-04-02 12:42AM | 0 recs

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