Dems May Yet Pick Up Another Seat in the House

by Jonathan Singer, Tue Dec 12, 2006 at 04:47:23 PM EST

The early numbers look good out of Texas-23 according to the Associated Press.

Democratic former Congressman Ciro Rodriguez held a strong lead Tuesday over Republican incumbent Henry Bonilla as they battled for a congressional seat in a runoff election.
With more than half the precincts reporting in the state's largest district, Rodriguez was leading Bonilla 57 percent to 43 percent.

More details to come...

Update [2006-12-12 21:49:39 by Jonathan Singer]: With 55.43 percent of precints reporting, former Democratic Congressman Ciro Rodriguez leads incumbent Republican Henry Bonilla 30,408 (56.84%) to 23,089 (43.16%).

Update [2006-12-12 21:53:29 by Jonathan Singer]: With 67.42 percent of precints reporting, Rodriguez's lead is up to 32,243 (57.25%) to 24,077 (42.75%). The Burnt Orange Report says it's in the bag and it appears they may be right.

Update [2006-12-12 22:5:14 by Jonathan Singer]: The AP calls it for Ciro.

Former Congressman Ciro Rodriguez defeated seven-term Republican Henry Bonilla in a runoff election Tuesday, adding another Democrat to Congress.

Update [2006-12-12 22:19:19 by Jonathan Singer]: With 79.40 percent of precincts reporting, the numbers are tightening -- but not likely enough to put Bonilla over the top. Currently, Rodriguez holds a lead of 35,239 (55.38%) to 28,398 (44.62%).

Update [2006-12-12 22:46:22 by Jonathan Singer]: And with 95.13 percent of precincs reporting Rodriguez is up 37,250 (54.54%) to 31,044 (45.46%).

Tags: Ciro Rodriguez, House 2006, TX-23 (all tags)

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BOR has called it for the Good Guys

Our Texan friends at Burnt Orange Report have called the race for Rodriguez, based on their knowledge and analysis of the county-by-county vote.

by DaveMB 2006-12-12 04:54PM | 0 recs

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AP Calls It- CIRO WINS!!

"Bonilla loses House seat after 7 terms"

SAN ANTONIO - Former Congressman Ciro Rodriguez defeated seven-term Republican Henry Bonilla in a runoff election Tuesday, adding another Democrat to Congress.

by marksist 2006-12-12 05:00PM | 0 recs

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Scheduling backfires on GOP?

The state chose to schedule the special election on the day of the Feast of the Virgin of Guadalupe, an important holiday for Mexican-Americans. Various commenters at Kos are speculating that having the election on a day when Mexican-Americans were gathering in large groups, and perhaps encouraging each other to vote, did not work so well for them...

by DaveMB 2006-12-12 05:03PM | 0 recs

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Re: Scheduling backfires on GOP?

Especially when the Republicans were making such a blatant attempt to disenfranchise hispanic voters by choosing the holiday....

by Vox Populi 2006-12-12 05:09PM | 0 recs

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Re: Scheduling backfires on GOP?

And in a district they had to redraw because it violated the Voting Rights Act, no less.

Ain't no stoopid like an arrogant Texas Republican.

by boadicea 2006-12-12 06:18PM | 0 recs

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Re: Dems May Yet Pick Up Another Seat in the House

Looks like Ciro gets to go back anyway, eh :)

by Vox Populi 2006-12-12 05:10PM | 0 recs

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Re: Dems May Yet Pick Up Another Seat in the House

Can't we please bring back Terry Mcauliffe?

by Vox Populi 2006-12-12 05:18PM | 0 recs

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Re: Dems May Yet Pick Up Another Seat in the House

Exactly my thought. I so miss losing every cycle.

by raginillinoian 2006-12-12 05:49PM | 0 recs

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Is Harold Ford Jr. available?

yeah that's kind of a cheap shot ... but Carville was the one that dragged Ford's name into it.

by Calvin Jones and the 13th Apostle 2006-12-12 06:29PM | 0 recs

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Re: Dems May Yet Pick Up Another Seat in the House

now what i want to know is, what caused the bonilla melt-down? i mean, the guy was up in the polls, handily even. of course the polls were horseshit because there's no such thing as an accurate likely voter model in this situation. but damn were those polls off. why did the NRCC back away completely?

if i had to guess, everyone at the NRCC got fired on november 8th and they didn't have the juice to put forth even minimal effort in retaining this seat. but that's just my speculation. anybody got a better idea for why this happened the way it did?

by beyondo98 2006-12-12 05:27PM | 0 recs

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Re: Dems May Yet Pick Up Another Seat in the House

I think a lot of the difference between the final numbers and the poll numbers that had Bonilla up by about 5 points is the Hispanic turnout. The turnout models for the polls showed disproportinately low turn out for Hispanics- who overwhelmingly favored Ciro- and my guess is that they turned out proportionately or nearer so.

by AC4508 2006-12-12 06:08PM | 0 recs

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Border fence

The Hotline says Bonilla's vote for the border fence hurt him a lot.

by KCinDC 2006-12-12 06:34PM | 0 recs

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yup yup

many latino families in texas are of mixed status: documented and undocumented. the immigration fiasco was seen as a direct attack on the latino family unit. and if you know anything about latino culture, you do not mess with peoples' families. latino outrage over the stupid fence and the other immigration crap was directly reflected in the vote today.

by annatopia 2006-12-12 07:38PM | 0 recs

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Re: Dems May Yet Pick Up Another Seat in the House

Unbelievable! Time to celebrate.

And as Chris wrote long ago, with 233 seats, the Dems now have more seats than the R's have EVER had in 50 years. It smells like a mandate and a complete rejection of the Republican agenda.

by hilltopper 2006-12-12 05:32PM | 0 recs

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Re: Dems May Yet Pick Up Another Seat in the House

Yes well, Democrats have a higher standard for victory.

We had 295 seats after the 1964 election.

by raginillinoian 2006-12-12 05:50PM | 0 recs

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Re: Dems May Yet Pick Up Another Seat in the House

Yeah, there was a little something else going on that year. What was it? Oh, yes, Johnson's 44-state landslide against Goldwater.

That'll tend to do it every time.

by craverguy 2006-12-12 07:39PM | 0 recs

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The Blue Wave Finds It Way To Texas

Another tremendous victory and hopefully a sign of things to come for 2008.

by robliberal 2006-12-12 05:44PM | 0 recs

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Re: Dems May Yet Pick Up Another Seat in the House

Congratulations to Ciro Rodriguez on winning the seat and to the voters of TX-23 as they will now get a Congressman that fights for their values!

by TheBlueWarriors 2006-12-12 05:58PM | 0 recs

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this is huge, yall

i don't know if i can adequately explain how significant this victory is. bonilla was (oh how i loved typing that) a serious power player here. he's been in office since i moved to this state, and he is seen as incredibly formidable. his name comes up in gop circles every time the statewide elections roll around.

the redistricting saved our butts in this one. the gop is so hated by latinos here now after the immigration firestorm. but beyond that, this race was a great example of what can happen when the local grassroots, netroots, state institutions, and national institutions are on the same page.

by annatopia 2006-12-12 06:33PM | 0 recs

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Bye bye, Bonilla!

I'm glad to see the guy go simply because he wanted to make DC rename 16th Street to Ronald Reagan Boulevard, aside from all his other bad qualities.

by KCinDC 2006-12-12 06:37PM | 0 recs

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Re: Dems May Yet Pick Up Another Seat in the House

Congrats to Ciro! I didn't think he could do it, but it looks like the holiday played a huge factor, congregating large groups of Mexican-Americans together in churches (where the polling places are).

So Ciro lost to Cuellar (twice), Cuellar lost to Bonilla, and Bonilla lost to Ciro...that's some kind of rivalry brewing right there...

The Dems now have more seats in the House than the Repubs have held at any point since 1946 (insert Dean scream here)!

by dpinzow 2006-12-12 07:11PM | 0 recs

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Re: Dems May Yet Pick Up Another Seat in the House

Slight correction: The GOP had 236 seats by Oct 1996 because of defectors. In the 1994 elections the Republicans only won 230 seats though.

Conclusion: Let the GOP defections begin!

by marksist 2006-12-12 07:24PM | 0 recs

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Problem is...

...the Republicans most likely to defect have already been wiped out in the election. I can't think of a serious possibility in Congress. Maybe Shays? But he's been acting pretty crazy lately, so then again, maybe not.

by Angry White Democrat 2006-12-12 09:24PM | 0 recs