He is Lieberman Insurance.

we'll have polls taken tomorrow...

The movement in MO is all towards McCaskill.  I'm feeling quite confident about that race now.  Any Missourians with voting reports?

You can buy a contract on GOP keeping the House on Intrade or Tradesports right now for 16.5 cents. Payoff is a dollar. I don't know much about these political futures markets and their records, but I like those odds for us Dems.

These polls appear to confirm the SUSA findings of a late break to the Dems.

SUSA found movement in 3 races, Fla Gov, Va Senate and Mo Senate.  

Rasmussen found no such trend.  SUSA and Rasmussen were among the best pollsters in 2004 - and they both can't right this time.

My guess is Rasmussen is wrong.  Their Bush job approval numbers suggest to me that their party id model is wrong.

Tradesports' latest for key races looks good for all but Ford. From summerlightning.com/blog

What are people betting on today?

Just for a minute, assume the election is going to be fair (which Summer Lightning says is not going to happen).

Tradesports, if you like that kind of thing (follow what people bet on, not what they say) is looking reasonable, except for Tennessee. For those unfamiliar, the "bid" number is roughly the percent win chance that the market is giving that proposition.

(Prices at noon Eastern)

MD.SENATE06.DEM Bid 65.3 Offer 73.0
MD.SENATE06.GOP Bid 32.0 Offer 39.9

MO.SENATE06.DEM Bid 59.0 Offer 62.8
MO.SENATE06.GOP Bid 38.5 Offer 41.0

MT.SENATE06.DEM Bid 69.0 Offer 74.7
MT.SENATE06.GOP Bid 32.0 Offer 32.3

NJ.SENATE06.DEM Bid 94.2 Offer 95.8
NJ.SENATE06.GOP Bid 07.0 Offer 09.6

OH.SENATE06.DEM Bid 93.6 Offer 96.0
OH.SENATE06.GOP Bid 04.0 Offer 09.8

PA.SENATE06.DEM Bid 92.0 Offer 94.2
PA.SENATE06.GOP Bid 05.6 Offer 07.8

RI.SENATE06.DEM Bid 66.0 Offer 69.7
RI.SENATE06.GOP Bid 33.0 Offer 34.0

TN.SENATE06.DEM Bid 14.2 Offer 16.0
TN.SENATE06.GOP Bid 82.0 Offer 87.0

VA.SENATE06.DEM Bid 59.5 Offer 68.9
VA.SENATE06.GOP Bid 39.0 Offer 40.0

Jim "No" Talent lost an aproximately 200,000 vote edge when the Missouri supremes struck down the vote suppressing "Jim Talent Incumbent Protection Act" last month.

...The high court ruled that the law violated the equal protection clause of the state constitution, as well as other constitutional provisions. Laws that restrict a fundamental right must be narrowly drawn to address a compelling problem, and the ID law failed that test, the opinion said. The court split 6-1, with Judge Stephen N. Limbaugh Jr. dissenting...

I got the added bonus this morning in being able to vote "No" for retaining Justice Limbaugh (yes, they're related).

The Missouri Democratic Party participated in the lawsuit which ended up in the Supreme Court overturning this republican driven voter ID law.

 My wife and I went and voted this morning at our local precinct here in SW MO, and I can honestly say turnout seemed heavier than usual for a mid-term--it "felt" like a presidential year, and many of the poll workers felt the same way.
     Other "feelings", for what they are worth, from here in MO: I think McCaskill is going to win. Talent bringing Bush to Springfield was a last-ditch, "I-have-nothing-to-lose" move of desparation. Watch early returns from SW MO; McCaskill needs to poll between 40 and 45 percent here for a reasonable shot at winning. I think she is there.

I live in IL, and work in St Louis.  I have had the "benefit" of watching the endless spew of disgusting ads slamming McCaskill from that human piece of shit Talent.  I believe that many persons were nauseated by these disgusting ads, and have turned against Talent.

Remember also that Talent won a special election in 2002 to take the seat by a slim slim margin against a very poor campaigner.  And of those who voted against him in 2002, who would now vote for him?  I can't imagine a single person.

because they're obviously the scariest thing since Poe.

I kid -- but really, we need to stop worrying about 'fired up evangelicals' because guess what... they're going to vote in large numbers, they're going to vote overwhelming Republican, and I'm hardly interested in pandering to their baser needs of a glorious war against gays, brown people, single women, and liberals.

They're a permanent part of the equation.  We need to quit wringing our hands over their election enthusiasm and do a better job getting everyone else to vote Democratic.

If the American Taliban alone (and no one else) votes GOP -- there's not a single state, hell not a single DISTRICT in this nation that they can win.

"I know there's been talk that Amendment 2 mobilizes the evangelicals to vote, but the effort to narrow down the margin by which Amendment 2 passes in MO has come at a cost to Talent's numbers in the polls."

It seems to me that increasing numbers of evangelicals want to "Render unto Caesar the things which are Caesar's, and unto God the things that are God's". Many may have come to the conclusion the company they've been keeping in Ceasar's army is interfering with their path to God. Voting for McCaskill might be a way for them to tell the GOP to "bugger off".

Heavy turnout in St. Louis City. My wife had to wait an hour just to get into the polling place. I plan to go after work.

We have a good fried who is undergoing chemotharapy for breast cancer. As you might expect she has no hair and wears a wig. Today when we went to vote she happened to be there in line with us. There was a woman there handing out flyers to vote no on the stem cell initiative. Our friend stepped in front of the woman handing out flyers, ripped off her wig, and announced in a very loud voice " You think I'm stupid enough to vote against a cure for myself?".
It was great. The woman handing out the flyers looked very mad.