More Polls & MO
by Jerome Armstrong, Tue Nov 07, 2006 at 08:30:03 AM EST
The pollsters don't quit until the last vote is counted. Here's the latest IVR polling from a group called OnPoint (pdf)--let's hope they are right!
Missouri, McCaskill leads Talent 49 - 46
Montana, Tester leads Burns 49 - 44
New Jersey, Menendez leads Kean 50 - 41
Tennessee, Corker leads Ford 48 -47
Those are great numbers, a Ford win would be one of the biggest stories of the night. The only other poll out on Pollster.com is SUSA following up on their MO results, showing a clear breakout for McCaskill over Talent, 50 - 44. Also in MO, Amendment 2 is leading 49-40.
If this turns out to be the result, why did this race, which had been a deadheat for over a year, take a sharp turn toward McCaskill in the last week? I pointed out a in late Oct that Missouri looked lined up for McCaskill because of the ballot measure The poloraization of Amendment 2 along partisan lines was something that Talent had wanted to avoid early on in the race, but in the end the larger forces at work (like Rush Limbaugh) in the media pushed the issue toward being a Democratic one, and in some ways, a national referendum. I know there's been talk that Amendment 2 mobilizes the evangelicals to vote, but the effort to narrow down the margin by which Amendment 2 passes in MO has come at a cost to Talent's numbers in the polls.