More Polls & MO

The pollsters don't quit until the last vote is counted. Here's the latest IVR polling from a group called OnPoint (pdf)--let's hope they are right!

Missouri, McCaskill leads Talent 49 - 46

Montana, Tester leads Burns 49 - 44

New Jersey, Menendez leads Kean 50 - 41

Tennessee, Corker leads Ford 48 -47

Those are great numbers, a Ford win would be one of the biggest stories of the night. The only other poll out on Pollster.com is SUSA following up on their MO results, showing a clear breakout for McCaskill over Talent, 50 - 44. Also in MO, Amendment 2 is leading 49-40.

If this turns out to be the result, why did this race, which had been a deadheat for over a year, take a sharp turn toward McCaskill in the last week? I pointed out a in late Oct that Missouri looked lined up for McCaskill because of the ballot measure The poloraization of Amendment 2 along partisan lines was something that Talent had wanted to avoid early on in the race, but in the end the larger forces at work (like Rush Limbaugh) in the media pushed the issue toward being a Democratic one, and in some ways, a national referendum. I know there's been talk that Amendment 2 mobilizes the evangelicals to vote, but the effort to narrow down the margin by which Amendment 2 passes in MO has come at a cost to Talent's numbers in the polls.

Tags: Elections 06 (all tags)

Comments

17 Comments

Come on Ford!

He is Lieberman Insurance.

by Delaware Dem 2006-11-07 08:31AM | 0 recs
At this rate...

we'll have polls taken tomorrow...

by fbihop 2006-11-07 08:33AM | 0 recs
Re: At this rate...

I can see the headlines now. "Republicans show surge in post-election polling"...

by Silent sound 2006-11-07 08:47AM | 0 recs
Re: More Polls & MO

The movement in MO is all towards McCaskill.  I'm feeling quite confident about that race now.  Any Missourians with voting reports?

by beeswax49 2006-11-07 08:37AM | 0 recs
Re: More Polls & MO

Early morning voting in Johnson County, Missouri (approximately 50 miles southeast of Kansas City) was very heavy.

by Michael Bersin 2006-11-07 09:11AM | 0 recs
Re: More Polls & MO

You can buy a contract on GOP keeping the House on Intrade or Tradesports right now for 16.5 cents. Payoff is a dollar. I don't know much about these political futures markets and their records, but I like those odds for us Dems.

by Brian CB 2006-11-07 08:39AM | 0 recs
Was there a late break to the Democrats

These polls appear to confirm the SUSA findings of a late break to the Dems.

SUSA found movement in 3 races, Fla Gov, Va Senate and Mo Senate.  

Rasmussen found no such trend.  SUSA and Rasmussen were among the best pollsters in 2004 - and they both can't right this time.

My guess is Rasmussen is wrong.  Their Bush job approval numbers suggest to me that their party id model is wrong.

by fladem 2006-11-07 08:56AM | 0 recs
Re: Money not polls

Tradesports' latest for key races looks good for all but Ford. From summerlightning.com/blog

What are people betting on today?

Just for a minute, assume the election is going to be fair (which Summer Lightning says is not going to happen).

Tradesports, if you like that kind of thing (follow what people bet on, not what they say) is looking reasonable, except for Tennessee. For those unfamiliar, the "bid" number is roughly the percent win chance that the market is giving that proposition.

(Prices at noon Eastern)

MD.SENATE06.DEM Bid 65.3 Offer 73.0
MD.SENATE06.GOP Bid 32.0 Offer 39.9

MO.SENATE06.DEM Bid 59.0 Offer 62.8
MO.SENATE06.GOP Bid 38.5 Offer 41.0

MT.SENATE06.DEM Bid 69.0 Offer 74.7
MT.SENATE06.GOP Bid 32.0 Offer 32.3

NJ.SENATE06.DEM Bid 94.2 Offer 95.8
NJ.SENATE06.GOP Bid 07.0 Offer 09.6

OH.SENATE06.DEM Bid 93.6 Offer 96.0
OH.SENATE06.GOP Bid 04.0 Offer 09.8

PA.SENATE06.DEM Bid 92.0 Offer 94.2
PA.SENATE06.GOP Bid 05.6 Offer 07.8

RI.SENATE06.DEM Bid 66.0 Offer 69.7
RI.SENATE06.GOP Bid 33.0 Offer 34.0

TN.SENATE06.DEM Bid 14.2 Offer 16.0
TN.SENATE06.GOP Bid 82.0 Offer 87.0

VA.SENATE06.DEM Bid 59.5 Offer 68.9
VA.SENATE06.GOP Bid 39.0 Offer 40.0

by maantoninus 2006-11-07 09:01AM | 0 recs
Re: More Polls & MO

Jim "No" Talent lost an aproximately 200,000 vote edge when the Missouri supremes struck down the vote suppressing "Jim Talent Incumbent Protection Act" last month.

...The high court ruled that the law violated the equal protection clause of the state constitution, as well as other constitutional provisions. Laws that restrict a fundamental right must be narrowly drawn to address a compelling problem, and the ID law failed that test, the opinion said. The court split 6-1, with Judge Stephen N. Limbaugh Jr. dissenting...

I got the added bonus this morning in being able to vote "No" for retaining Justice Limbaugh (yes, they're related).

The Missouri Democratic Party participated in the lawsuit which ended up in the Supreme Court overturning this republican driven voter ID law.

by Michael Bersin 2006-11-07 09:09AM | 0 recs
Re: For what it's worth from Southwest MO...
 My wife and I went and voted this morning at our local precinct here in SW MO, and I can honestly say turnout seemed heavier than usual for a mid-term--it "felt" like a presidential year, and many of the poll workers felt the same way.
     Other "feelings", for what they are worth, from here in MO: I think McCaskill is going to win. Talent bringing Bush to Springfield was a last-ditch, "I-have-nothing-to-lose" move of desparation. Watch early returns from SW MO; McCaskill needs to poll between 40 and 45 percent here for a reasonable shot at winning. I think she is there.
by Poll Addict 2006-11-07 09:09AM | 0 recs
Re: For what it's worth from Southwest MO...

Is this the beginning of Springfield going blue?

by MNPundit 2006-11-07 10:01AM | 0 recs
Re: More Polls & MO

I live in IL, and work in St Louis.  I have had the "benefit" of watching the endless spew of disgusting ads slamming McCaskill from that human piece of shit Talent.  I believe that many persons were nauseated by these disgusting ads, and have turned against Talent.

Remember also that Talent won a special election in 2002 to take the seat by a slim slim margin against a very poor campaigner.  And of those who voted against him in 2002, who would now vote for him?  I can't imagine a single person.

by dataguy 2006-11-07 09:17AM | 0 recs
Re: More Polls & MO

I live in St. Charles County, the red of all RED, and the lines were long and everyone...BUT me was talking about Talent and how they were there to SAVE him!!!  Got me very worried.  I have yet to see or hear anything from my travels that allow me to think of Blue wave in Missouri.  I can hope but remained a very guarded optimist that St Louis, KC and Columbia will come through HUGE for us.  

by MOBLUE78 2006-11-07 10:23AM | 0 recs
Dressing as an evangelical next Halloween...

because they're obviously the scariest thing since Poe.

I kid -- but really, we need to stop worrying about 'fired up evangelicals' because guess what... they're going to vote in large numbers, they're going to vote overwhelming Republican, and I'm hardly interested in pandering to their baser needs of a glorious war against gays, brown people, single women, and liberals.

They're a permanent part of the equation.  We need to quit wringing our hands over their election enthusiasm and do a better job getting everyone else to vote Democratic.

If the American Taliban alone (and no one else) votes GOP -- there's not a single state, hell not a single DISTRICT in this nation that they can win.

by zonk 2006-11-07 09:18AM | 0 recs
The skew towards McCaskill...

"I know there's been talk that Amendment 2 mobilizes the evangelicals to vote, but the effort to narrow down the margin by which Amendment 2 passes in MO has come at a cost to Talent's numbers in the polls."

It seems to me that increasing numbers of evangelicals want to "Render unto Caesar the things which are Caesar's, and unto God the things that are God's". Many may have come to the conclusion the company they've been keeping in Ceasar's army is interfering with their path to God. Voting for McCaskill might be a way for them to tell the GOP to "bugger off".

by shirt 2006-11-07 10:10AM | 0 recs
Re: More Polls & MO

Heavy turnout in St. Louis City. My wife had to wait an hour just to get into the polling place. I plan to go after work.

by clarkent 2006-11-07 10:14AM | 0 recs
Re:MO stem cell story
We have a good fried who is undergoing chemotharapy for breast cancer. As you might expect she has no hair and wears a wig. Today when we went to vote she happened to be there in line with us. There was a woman there handing out flyers to vote no on the stem cell initiative. Our friend stepped in front of the woman handing out flyers, ripped off her wig, and announced in a very loud voice " You think I'm stupid enough to vote against a cure for myself?".
It was great. The woman handing out the flyers looked very mad.
by druidbros 2006-11-07 10:27AM | 0 recs

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