Which America Will Show Up Tomorrow?

by Jonathan Singer, Mon Nov 06, 2006 at 06:49:07 AM EST

Back in September, Chris offered some real spot-on analysis of likely voter generic congressional ballot polling, about half of which showed the Democrats' lead shrinking to a near tie and the other half of which showed the Democrats up by a double-digit margin. He wrote,

These polls were all taken at about the exact same time. Differences of this sort cannot be chalked up simply to random error. I have never seen anything like this. One group shows a Democratic lead of 11-14%. The other group shows a Democratic lead of 0-3%. This is not simply a case of a few outlying polls. These groups of polling outfits are clearly polling two different countries altogether. Both countries exist. The issue is simply which country to we live in, and which country will show up when it comes time to vote.

Today we are again seeing a similarly quizzical situation, with about half of likely voter generic polls showing the Democrats up by a margin that would undoubtedly demoralize and defeat the Republicans while the other half of the surveys shows the Democrats holding a smaller, though still statistically significant lead. These are the last six generic congressional ballot polls split by their conclusions about the electorate (all data from Polling Report).

Democratic Landslide

CNN (Fri-Sun): Democrats 58 - Republicans 38
Newsweek (Thu-Fri): Democrats 54 - Republicans 38
Time (Wed-Fri): Democrats 55 - Republicans 40

Narrower Democratic Lead

USA Today/Gallup (Thu-Sun): Democrats 51 - Republicans 44
ABC News/Washington Post (Wed-Sat): Democrats 51 - 45
Pew (Wed-Sat): Democrats 47 - Republicans 44

Within each of these sets of polling, variation is limited, with with the Republican share varying by 1-2 points and the Democratic share varying by 4 points among polls. However, the two subsets are like night and day, with one capturing an environment of narrow, though noticeable victory and the other finding an electorate ready for sweeping change.

Which of these electorates shows up tomorrow is not yet clear. It might not even be written yet, as the activism and voter contacts over the next 30 to 40 hours can still push turnout in one direction or the other. (As an aside, the numbers I am seeing show that more than 10 percent of the electorate could be "non-likely" voters -- those who in the past have seldom or never voted and who did not even participate in this year's primaries. How and if pollsters catch these folks, who could swing the election in one direction or the other, is beyond me.) In either case, optimism and hope should and must not be lost. While the polling is no longer unanimous in its conclusion that the Democrats are riding a wave of historical proportions, it is unanimous in its finding that the Democrats hold a noticeable lead within the electorate as a whole and the more limited group of those likeliest to vote. So as we have all written in almost every recent post, go out and volunteer. Get in contact with voters and make a difference.

Update: Final Fox poll has Democrats ahead 49-36 among likely voters. That is actually an uptick for Democrats from the previous Fox poll. The only remaining places I would expect polls from now are Hotline, Harris, Zogby and AP. I have no idea if any of these firms have polls in the field, but those would be the only sources I would expect new polls from at this point. So far, more polls (four out of seven in November) indicate that the campaign is not getting closer than indicate it is getting closer. The sun is starting to shine again.

Tags: 2006 elections, Generic Congressional Ballot (all tags)

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More On Dueling Generic Ballot Polls

I was going to make exactly the same post myself, so I'll just stick my thoughts in a comment isntead.

More On Dueling Generic Ballot Polls
Tags: House 2006, voter turnout, polls

Amid all of the hubbub over generic ballot polls this past weekend, it seems to have gone unnoticed that all of the polling firms don't really disagree on what registered voters think. Here are the six registered voter generic ballots this weekend:

CNN: Democrats 54%--39% Republicans
Gallup: Democrats 51%--40% Republicans
ABC / WaPo: Democrats 53%--43% Republicans
Pew: Democrats 49%--40% Republicans
Newsweek: Democrats 52%--36% Republicans
Time: Democrats 53%--38% Republicans

Those six polls group pretty closely together. The mean of those six polls comes to Democrats 52.0%--39.3% Republicans. The difference of any one poll from that mean is well within the margin of error. Now, look at the six likely voter polls:

CNN: Democrats 58%--38% Republicans
Gallup: Democrats 51%--44% Republicans
ABC / WaPo: Democrats 51%--45% Republicans
Pew: Democrats 47%--43% Republicans
Newsweek: Democrats 54%--38% Republicans
Time: Democrats 55%--40% Republicans

Now, the mean of these six likely voter polls is nearly identical to their six registered voter counter-parts. For these polls, the mean comes to 53.0%--41.3%. The difference, clearly, is that the polls are not grouping together. One group shows Democrats poised to make 1994 look like a tea-party, and another group that looks pretty much like 1994, only slightly less bloody. But the real difference between these polls is who each projects will vote. One group of polls shows Democrats either equaling, or doing better, among likely voters than registered voters, and the other group shows Republicans doing four or five points better among likely voters than registered voters. The two groups of polls, which all agree on a big Democratic advantage among all registered voters, seem to disagree on who will vote.

I made my predictions on who will vote last night, and my sense of panic has almost entirely dissipated. Professor Franklin offers more useful insight:

While these shifts this MAY signal a sharp change of opinion going into the weekend, the magnitude of the drop is quite uncertain with only three polls. We routinely see lots of variation across polls, especially when looking at the generic ballot margin. Nonetheless, the shifts have been enough to convince my "local regression" estimator (the blue line in the figure) to turn down for the first time in a while. Since the blue trend line considers ALL the polls, it is not overly sensitive to single polls, though the combined weight of Gallup, ABC/WP and Pew is enough to move it down about 4 points, from +15 to +11 for the Dems. It is likely that the individual polls are overstating the extent of the downturn. The trend estimator captures the "signal" among all the "noise" from poll to poll. It would take more polls to "know" how much this downturn really represents. But the "poll" taken on Tuesday will answer the question for sure.

An 11% Democratic lead? I can quite comfortably live with that. Remember, in 1994, Republicans only won by 7%. It is thus possible that the difference between just taking control, and a massive realignment, may hinge upon which vote turnout model is correct. However, it is more likely that there just hasn't been that much movement in either direction, and both the 20-point Democratic lead and the 4-point Democratic lead are overstated hiccups. District level polls just haven't shown anywhere near this kind of movement.

No matter what, I am not sure if I have ever seen national polls with such large disagreement on the eve of an election. Further, the polls showing Republicans closer might end up serving their purpose as well, giving us a sharp jolt out of our complacency and pre-empting "Democrats won, but still blew it" post-election narrative.

by Chris Bowers 2006-11-06 06:54AM | 0 recs

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Re: More On Dueling Generic Ballot Polls

There's actually a two-fold difference here. There's a difference in the registered voters, too:

* CNN: Democrats 54%--39% Republicans
* Newsweek: Democrats 52%--36% Republicans
* Time: Democrats 53%--38% Republicans

Avg: 53%-37.7%; 15.3% margin

* Gallup: Democrats 51%--40% Republicans
* ABC / WaPo: Democrats 53%--43% Republicans
* Pew: Democrats 49%--40% Republicans

Avg: 51%-41%; 10% margin

And likely voters:

* CNN: Democrats 58%--38% Republicans
* Newsweek: Democrats 54%--38% Republicans
* Time: Democrats 55%--40% Republicans

Avg: 55.7%-38.7%; 17% margin

* Gallup: Democrats 51%--44% Republicans
* ABC / WaPo: Democrats 51%--45% Republicans
* Pew: Democrats 47%--43% Republicans

Avg: 49.7%-44%; 5.7% margin

So the three polls differ by 5.3% among registered voters, and another 6% among likely voters, for an 11.3% total difference.

Clearly, the likely voter models reflect differing sets of assumptions. But just as clearly, the registered voter samples differ as well. (The gap is outside the MOE.) The long-term souring on Bush and Congressional approval, plus drop-off in GOP self-identification all make me more inclined to think that even the Gallup/ABC/Pew registered voter polls are overly optomistic for the GOP.

But tomorrow will tell.

by Paul Rosenberg 2006-11-06 07:21AM | 0 recs

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Re: More On Dueling Generic Ballot Polls

I wonder if the likely voter screens can be grouped, as well. For example, do the Pew/et al screens take historical voting patterns more into consideration, while the others rely more on their own data on voter intensity? I have no idea ... It seems inconsistent, though, that some of the polls that give the GOP a better performance in the likely voter universe also show a greater intensity on the Democratic side. That seems contradictory.

Personally (and optimistically), I think what's happening is that the likely voter screens are getting overwhelmed by a wave election, giving widely varying results because the behavior of the electorate doesn't match a normal election. Different screens deal with the situation differently, and they all would be closer if the situation were more normal. But since this is not an election like others, internal differences and quirks are giving wildly different results.

At least that's my story right now ... but I'm always an eternal optimist. Like Jerome, only more vague ...

by BriVT 2006-11-06 07:52AM | 0 recs

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Re: More On Dueling Generic Ballot Polls

Hey Chris - you ought to break that Rovian GOP epitaph from last week back out, because I think it's the key.

After some trepidation yesterday, I'm back to confidant because I think the Gallup and Pew polls just showed exactly what you're pointing out above -- we're just seeing the faithful across the aisle resigning themselves to holding their noses and voting GOP.

I don't think this should suprise anyone -- Bush's approval may be in the 30s, but that does mean 35-38% do approve and deeper in those numbers, there's still usually a 10-15% (or more) that would rate his performance "excellent".

I never really found any idea that the GOP hard right base might sit this out to be a little silly. These folks always vote -- and even if the GOP won't give them something to vote for, they've always got a Democrat to vote against.

But as I commented back on that thread, I think that base has been tapped dry. There are no more of 'them' to get to the polls.

The GOP's problem is that they're bleeding indepedents (both registered and moderate registered GOPers) like a sieve. Rove's master strategy was not predicated on simply getting the evangelicals to the polls -- he knew/knows full well he needs a healthy portion of the middle to vote GOP, too. He got enough in 2004. He won't in 2006 --- not by a longshot.

I know CW has it that midterms are "base" elections... but there are still sizeable numbers of voters that would identify themselves as independents - and I find it hard to believe many of them will vote GOP.

by zonk 2006-11-06 08:09AM | 0 recs

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Re: Which America Will Show Up Tomorrow?

Can't this just be the case of the news netowrks making this a horse race? I don't know how they can fudge the numbers to make it so, but they obviously have to sell a horse race. I bet the news reports were saying the same thing in '94.

by Calvin Jones and the 13th Apostle 2006-11-06 06:55AM | 0 recs

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Re: Which America Will Show Up Tomorrow?

It certainly is in The Media's best interests to make this thing a horse race, however I'm hoping these late breaking reports of a tightening race will work in favor of the Dems as I personally am revolted to the point of near nausea at the mere notion that there will be two more years of this...

by MinorRipper 2006-11-06 07:03AM | 0 recs

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Not so sure

On a race by race basis, the media likes a horserace, but another bare republican majority isn't a "big story" really. A democratic landslide 1974 epic blowout is a big story.

Pelosi becomming speaker and dozens of entrenched incumbent republicans being ousted is big news.

Dems taking the senate by surprise is big news.

If we want to argue that the media is showing its corporate bias in not wanting the party less likely to please their corporate owners, then fine I agree they have motive.

But I think a once-in-a-generation blowout is a bigger story and ratings get for them then another close one.

by scientician 2006-11-06 07:16AM | 0 recs

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What's A Story???

The news media will always rationalize whatever they chose to cover as "a story" and whatever they choose to ignore as "not a story."

Thus, the Downing Street Memo--proof positive of criminal conduct leading us into war--is "not a story." OTOH, Kerry botching a joke about George Bush's slovenly study habits is.

So you're absolutely right.

But...

It's also true that the media is incredibly lazy, and a creature of habit. Close elections being more interesting is their habitual reflex. It's a story they know how to do. All their favorite sources have their soundbites memorized on this scenario. The historic landslide thingie--that means a little bit of work. And they just hate that.

So, you see, there actually is some level of rational explanation above and beyond the corporate spin.

Makes it easier to sell to the troops.

by Paul Rosenberg 2006-11-06 07:28AM | 0 recs

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Re: Which America Will Show Up Tomorrow?

Damn. I'd just diaried this and I come back up for air and here's a better article on the same subject.

Anyway, my thoughts added here:

There has been some stomach clenching and orifice tightening in the past few days as the Pew Poll has showed the Democratic advantage in the generic Congressional poll dropping to 4 points, the ABC/WaPo poll showing a spread of 6 points, and the USA TODAY/Gallup poll showing a spread of seven points.

After all, for much of the past few months many generic Congressional polls have indicated a Democratic advantage somewhere in the 8-13 point range.

So things are suddenly trending badly for the Democrats as Buyers contemplate pre-voting remorse, right? Umm...probably not.

This morning's CNN polls shows a Democratic lead of 58-38, one of the largest Democratic margins yet and consistent with the Newsweek poll of 54-38 that ended November 3.

I think what's going on here is complete confusion among the pollsters with respect to models of Likely Voter screens. And there's the rub. There are enough cross currents in this election that we can't tell who's likely to vote until they've actually voted. I think another factor is that at this point people have been looking at their ballots and the question becomes one of "names" even though the poll itself is generic.

And are some dispirited Republicans "coming home" and deciding to vote after all, however reluctantly? Almost certainly. But are Democrats still highly energized and more likely to vote than usual, off-setting the power of the GOP's vaunted 72-Hour Project? Almost just as certainly.

Politics, like its more general application, Marketing, is an art, not a science. The numbers are useful but need to be cross-checked against gut instinct and experience.

I think the true Democratic advantage on the generic ballot is about 10-12 points but that if a survey were taken about named ballots, the number would drop into the 5-7 percent range. And that's a number that I'd take to the bank all day.

I guess we'll find out tomorrow.

by InigoMontoya 2006-11-06 07:08AM | 0 recs

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If the polls did tighten, why?

I think the important underlying question, here -- if these tightened polls are accurate -- is why?

I know that elections can often tighten up in the last few days, but has anything happened recently that could have been a factor?

How could all the bad press the Republicans have been getting this past week -- in contrast to almost no bad press for the Democrats -- explain this?

John Kerry.

I have no proof, of course, but it's the only story out there that was played (and played and played) as bad for Democrats. (Remember, these are all pre-Saddam verdict).

The single Kerry manufactured story coverage essentially exceeded all the far more important stories that have plagued the Republican Party put together.

This is why we, who wish to move this country forward, can never underestimate the willingness for the Freak Show press to spend huge amounts of time on things that are absurd even to Tom Friedman.

And we should never underestimate the Republican's deep understanding -- based on much positive feedback -- that they'll be able to manipulate the press in exactly this way.

The Democratic candidates for 2008 better be learning this lesson, or we can say hello to President St. McCain.

And if the nominee ends up being Hillary Clinton, I sure hope Peter Daou is helping her understand this all-important factor.

by Vermonter 2006-11-06 07:16AM | 0 recs

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Re: If the polls did tighten, why?

The timing is wrong for Kerry to be the cause. The polls showing the drop took place a few days after Kerry left the headlines. Also, the Saddam verdict was too recent to be caught in these polls. The big political news events that are timed right are Ted Haggard and the Iraqi Document Portal nuclear secrets thing. Haggard probably had no effect, and certainly couldn't HELP Republicans. The nuclear secrets thing would require that people bought the wingnut interpretation that it proves there were WMDs, which even the media-droids were were pretty unwilling to swallow.

My guess, assuming the tightening is real (I don't think it is, or if it is, it's not that extreme), is that it's low-information voters making up their mind in the final days of the campaign, and that they skew more Republican for whatever reason. Low-information voters don't turn out in big numbers, so differences in likey voter models could explain why some polls are showing a tightening and others are not.

by fwiffo 2006-11-06 07:27AM | 0 recs

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Re: If the polls did tighten, why?

Yes, as I said, this is pre-Saddam...

But, I disagree that these came after the Kerry deal...

Sadly, it never actually left us.

Case in point:

This Newsweek article "Botched" in the current issue was linked from the MSNBC home page right up until yesterday.

Still linked on the Newsweek home page.

And the Newsweek On Air headline today reads:

"Faith and Politics, John Kerry, Congo, Boomers TV, and Borat"

These are just two examples.

People turning their attention to the election in the last remaining days (covered by these polls) had many opportunities to be reminded of the "loser" John Kerry.

Just saying.

by Vermonter 2006-11-06 07:38AM | 0 recs

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The Carpetbagger...

... has a good post showing more evidence that the Kerry story was more influential than we might like to believe...

And, of course, go to Media Matters for more...

by Vermonter 2006-11-06 11:43AM | 0 recs

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Re: Which America Will Show Up Tomorrow?

FWIW, the Fox News Poll released today gives Dems a 13-point advantage, an increase over their last lead of 11 points two weeks ago. And I have no idea how to post links, but I swear it's there!

by jamfan 2006-11-06 07:18AM | 0 recs

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Re: Which America Will Show Up Tomorrow?

http://www.foxnews.com/story/0,2933,2277 07,00.html

by accumbens 2006-11-06 07:19AM | 0 recs

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Re: Which America Will Show Up Tomorrow?

Add in the new Fox News/Opinion Dynamics poll which shows a 13 point lead (49-36) or 12 points without leaners (45-33). That seems to strike out a middle ground, though it's a bit more in line with the landslide category.

I know people will discount Fox polls, but their polling usually is historically to other polls, so I don't think there's any reason to discount this one in particular. Their generic ballot polls do tend to show more undecideds than other pollsters.

by fwiffo 2006-11-06 07:20AM | 0 recs

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Show Up Tomorrow?

I put more faith in my gut instincts than all these confusing and conflicting poll numbers. And my instincts tell me that the D + I voters are pissed off and motivated, and the R voter is disenchanted and disengaged. I'll take a tsunami of passion over a bunch of theoretical numbers any day.

by global yokel 2006-11-06 07:28AM | 0 recs

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Re: Which America Will Show Up Tomorrow?

I've been wondering if the polls have been manipulated in the Ford/Corker race, to discourage a last push by Democrats there.

by catherineD 2006-11-06 07:43AM | 0 recs

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Re: Which America Will Show Up Tomorrow?

Survey USA has just released a poll giving Jim Webb an eight point lead over George Allen...Survey USA was right on in the 2005 VA Governors race, with yheir final poll mirroring the actual results...

by tommy 2006-11-06 07:55AM | 0 recs

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No argument there...

I definitely don't think any of it was Kerry's fault, of course. Just the opposite.

So, yes, that's what the Republicans do. Good for them. They'll keep working this angle as long as it continues to work.

My gripe is with the press who allows themselves to be manipulated like this.

And yes, with some in the Democratic Party who don't seem to understand this oh so important piece that has had an outsized role in defining the conventional wisdom throughout for more than a decade.

Bob Somerby, Jamison Foser, Peter Daou, Greg Sargeant, etc. get this. But, many others feel that it's beneath them to pay attention to it and to combat it.

Just remember, Matt Drudge rules the world of today's press corps.

Ignore that fact as a candidate and you place yourself one step closer to defeat right outta the starting blocks.

by Vermonter 2006-11-06 08:50AM | 0 recs