Last Day tightening polls in AZ & CT

by Jerome Armstrong, Mon Nov 06, 2006 at 11:10:26 AM EST

I'm heading out to see Bill Clinton rally with Mark Warner for Jim Webb's election to the US Senate in Virginia, and will post more on it later. Here's a new slate of polls out on all the Gov and Senate races by polimetrix(pdf).

The headline grabber for Dems is that Pederson and Lamont are both within 4 percent:

ArizonaPederson            46
Kyl                 50ConnecticutLieberman           48
Lamont              44
Schlesinger          9

The Virginia and Missouri races, where the election will likely come down to in the Senate, are all tied up at 50-50 a piece. Everything else on the Senate sides looks according to the current norm in other polls. Pederson was closing in a poll yesterday as well, and SUSA yesterday showed Lieberman falling across the finish line, so maybe?

Tags: Ned Lamont (all tags)

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Re: Last Day tightening polls in AZ & CT

Should the fact that they call Bob Corker "Jim Corker" be a cause for skepticism about these numbers?

by Jonathan Singer 2006-11-06 11:14AM | 0 recs

4a2fab88-ed3b-47a4-8f14-3ec8a24504ac_normal

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Re: Last Day tightening polls in AZ & CT

You don't want to vote for a Nussie in Iowa either...

by Jerome Armstrong 2006-11-06 11:16AM | 0 recs

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48 + 44 + 9 = 101

What are the chances that 101% of the CT electorate will vote?

by Swan 2006-11-06 11:16AM | 0 recs

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Re: 48 + 44 + 9 = 101

Depending on how much Joe pays 'em... pretty good I'd say.

by MNPundit 2006-11-06 11:20AM | 0 recs

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Re: 48 + 44 + 9 = 101

In Connecticut, I'm not so sure. It's very likely in Chicago, though!

by Fran for Dean 2006-11-06 12:01PM | 0 recs

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Re: Last Day tightening polls in AZ & CT

How reliable is this polling outfit? I've never heard of it and the numbers in CT in particular are way different than anything i've seen yet

by blueryan 2006-11-06 11:26AM | 0 recs

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Here

http://www.polimetrix.com/

Check the about us page. But I agree I've never heard of these guys before and they are definitely new. Still and all I think that's close to what the final numbers will be in the race:

Lieberman 50, Lamont 44, Schleshinger 6

by MNPundit 2006-11-06 11:31AM | 0 recs

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Re: Here

The text in the PDF is weird. Strangely casual language for a polling report - like a 10th grader's book report or something. And the totals for a lot of races show 0% undecided. I can chalk up totals of 101% to rounding, but it's unusual to not include any undecided voters at all...

by fwiffo 2006-11-06 11:34AM | 0 recs

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Re: Last Day tightening polls in AZ & CT

The CT poll only has 401 responses, so the MOE is kinda bigish.

by fwiffo 2006-11-06 11:31AM | 0 recs

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Self-selected sample?

I'll take it, though. Music to mine earholes.

Beat Holy Joe
Beat him bad

by stevehigh 2006-11-06 11:44AM | 0 recs

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Re: Last Day tightening polls in AZ & CT

Its better to be a Dem than a Repub tomorrow. On high ground waiting for the tsunami to strike.

by ab initio 2006-11-06 11:46AM | 0 recs

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F the polls

At this point, any poll is too depressing to check out with respect to CT, even this one which no one seems to know much about.

F*** 'em and just let's hope the GOTV efforts for Lamont are as good as hyped. That is the key right now.

by Pravin 2006-11-06 12:12PM | 0 recs

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Re: Last Day tightening polls in AZ & CT

the sampling error for a sampling size of 400 is +/- 7% per the polimetrix report.

the Lieberman/Lamont size? 401.

Worthless poll.

by JJCPA 2006-11-06 12:27PM | 0 recs

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Re: Last Day tightening polls in AZ & CT

Polimetrix also failed to include Rich Whitney in Illinois. Whitney has consistently polled in 10-15% range in other polls. Another reason this poll is crap.

by JJCPA 2006-11-06 12:30PM | 0 recs

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Re: Last Day tightening polls in AZ & CT

That makes me so happy that Lamont is only 4 points behind!

C'mon Team Lamont!!!!

by dayspring 2006-11-06 02:07PM | 0 recs