The Dems may pick up more - Tennessee is still close - only 4 behind in the last Ras poll

I am on the side that says post mortems should wait until Nov 8, not nov 5th. I can see the collateral idea such as with Tester that one would want to shore up any problems that are presenting themselves, but all of this post election spin- what purpose does it serve before we have even cast ballots? Do you not think that after so many people in the blogsphere trumpeting a defeat is really a win, that never the less may help demoralize anyone reading your constant postings about how pessimistic you are. Just curious about why the pre election post election post mortem.

PS- I dont think there anything wrong with polls, but I do think there is an overabundance of people trying to jump to the bit to tell us what it all means when we are still in the thick of it. What it all means can be sorted out started after all the polls close- maybe in a 24 hour news cycle (and now with the internets- hourly news cycle) that doesn't make as much sense, but in an psychology of focus sense- it does. I just did some GOTV today- reading your post when I just made these phone call depresses me.

Chris makes a good point (to his credit).  But can't help but wonder: how can we seriously make the case that our winning the house will make a difference?  

More to the point: How can we effectively stand for something?  

Simply pass broad visioned legislation to simply get shot down by a conservative senate or conservative president?

I suppose I simply add more to the argument that we "have unfinished work to do in 2008" but how do we make more of a persuasive case to the independent voter to give us additional influence?  

I suppose I'm operating on the assumption that the Republican Senate and President will deny us any legislation that speaks to our values and vision.  I think that is a fair observation though.

Typo alert: there are 435 (you typed 425) voting Representative seats up for election every two years.
_______

Democrats should have as an at-the-ready talking point that the senate is an undemocratic institution. Eric Alterman quotes from the Hacker and Pierson book Off Center:

Combining the last three Senate elections, Democrats have actually won two-and-a-half million more votes than Republicans. Yet they now hold only 44 seats in that 100-person chamber because Republicans dominate the less populous states that are so heavily over-represented in the Senate. As the journalist Hendrik Hertzberg notes, if one treats each senator as representing half that state's population, than the Senate's 55 Republicans currently represent 131 million people, while the 44 Democrats represent 161 million."

Some very bad news from Pew Research reinforcing the latest bad news from WaPo poll:

http://people-press.org/reports/display. php3?ReportID=295

If we wake up on Wednesday morning with a Republican House, we should demand John Kerry's resignation.  

I am so hopping mad at that egotistical windbag!  He has managed to stop our momentum at the most critical of moments and energize the Republicans.  Many of these races on Tuesday will be decided by a point or two, and you have to wonder what the result would have been if that selfish ass had just kept his mouth shut.    

Remember how you felt the morning after the 2004 election?  We're coming again....

Republicans Cut Democratic Lead in Campaign's Final Days
Democrats Hold 47%-43% Lead Among Likely Voters

For Christ's sake, Shut the Fuck Up!
Man up and quit whining and fearing or at least clam up.  You're driving voters from the polls and doing the rePukes work for them.

The ball game ain't over until the last out, this year of any year out of the last 10.

A Cardinals fan, in central Florida.

Sorry, L, but Kerry didn't hurt and probably helped Democrats.  I don't like the guy much either, but I'll be fair to him when he's being slimed by people falling for GOP traps.

Here's the internals of a Washington Post poll and quotes from Chuck Todd on Hardball.  Notice that even Todd says that Kerry didn't do diddly to hurt the Democrats.

Here's the latest Newsweek poll showing that Kerry HELPED the Democrats.  Remember, in order to diss Kerry, the Republicans had to bring up Iraq -- and the LAST thing they want right now is for people to think about Iraq.

you guys are depressing me WTF??? Dont stress out on the Pew poll, Newsweek and time both have generic polls with us ahead by 15 & 11 respectively!! Calm down....

If we win the Senate, groovy.  

If we don't win the Senate, that's groovy too.  Here's why:

If the Dems took both houses, the GOP/Media Complex is going to spend the next two years yammering about "the do-nothing Democratic Congress" or some such.  But taking only the House allows us to hold hearings and have subpoena power, while preventing the media from whining (as they did during the 1980s and much of the 1990s) about "unbroken Democratic control of Congress" yadayadayada.

And I sincerely think that it will put us in a better position for 2008.

Wishful thinking Phoenix Woman. When the Dem's take the House we will see Waxman, etc conduct absurd investigative hearings that will doom them in 2006.  Do you think Nancy is going to control this mob?

Waxman's reckless oversight will inspire patriotic Republicans to build a time machine,  travel back to October 2006, and broadcast tapes of his EEE-VIL on the Rush Limbaugh program.

This will doom the Democrats in 2006,  causing a causality paradox that results in total disruption of the space time continuum.

The earth is replaced by a black hole.

Yes, in 2008 the Reps will have to defend 21 seats and the Dems just 12.  Among the GOP seats are those who owe their victories to the "Iraq" election of 2002.  There may be a chance of getting at least 5 more in 2008, plus the outside chance of a defection, or resignation or (not wishing for it) death that leaves a seat open to be filled by a Dem Governor, of whom we will have many on Wednesday.  What happens Wednesday is not the last word.

I can see Iraq getting worse and Cheney and Bush stiffing Congress, then some sort of deal or defections in order to get us out of an untenable situation.

Reality check:

If you average ALL the very recent polls from all the polling firms then the Democrats are 10.25% ahead on the Republicans. Panic not.

I read on the Daily Kos thread that a poll coming out tonight shows Ford only 3% behind in TN. Hang in there folks.

Im calling bullshit on this post...Chris your like not a campaign manager or chairman of any caucus commitee that im aware of, which begs the question,...why the fuck are you trying to manage the expectations game??? quite frankly. i find it insulting

Chris is trying to be cute..color me unamused..

I know this site above all lives and breathes polls. But with regard to polls during these races I'm convinced that Nobody Knows Anything. Period.

I'll try to be more "civil" but after I read that bullcrap header and the comments that followed I wanted to punch someone. Not real effective when you're a chubby gramma. Say "MY Perspective" on the Senate don't for the love of Wellstone say Some Perpective like it's coming from the font of all political wisdom.

Listen: Nobody. Knows. Nothin'. You hear? Did you read the remarks of those depressed people who'd been dialing their little hearts out. Or will be dialing their hearts out tomorrow.  And like Imus told Kerry.  "Please stop it. Stop talking. Go home, get on the bike, go wind-surfing, anything stop it. You're going to ruin this."

wtf would motivate someone to say well, maybe 3, maybe 4, but we're winners anyway because.. . .
The timing for these remarks is so bad. Zogby doesn't know anything really. You don't know anything really. Gallup doesn't know anything really. They're mostly pissing in the wind because this climate may be similar to 94 but overall is unprecedented. On top of that, many pollsters been co-opted, biased, or bought and sold so their polls don't mean shite. I've been robo-called up the ying-yang this last week. My son in Missouri - same thing. We're not answering any more. Think we're the only ones?
Young voters are registering at an unprecedented pace. Are they registering to NOT vote? Are they at home to get the pollsters' calls? Are they skewed progressive? What's the cell phone percentage here?

More Imus:"God, just stop it, I'm begging you. I love you, but just stop it, I'm begging you."
I know Chris and other downbeat info posters meant well and perhaps were trying to act more knowledgeable than circumstances warrant because we're all desperate for more info. I personally found it enraging and horribly ill-timed.  This post did harm, I'm telling you, particularly since the main weapon in the rePukes' arsenal is voter suppresion, next in line is out and out theft. (There are rePukes and there are actual Republicans, btw, the administration is staffed with rePukes, the real R's left long ago)

So instead of a tidy little STFU or WTF I said what I meant at the time. And I'm passionate about taking our country back, passionate about politics - been so long before I cast my very first vote for JFK.

But I still mean STFU unless there's something positive of major merit to say at this incredibly sensitive juncture prior to voting. The ground game is everything now.  Shhhhhh. Like my mom used to say 'if you can't say anything good, don't say anything at all'. At least until the polls close.
shhhhhh.