In A Vastly More Conservative Nation, Democrats Pull Ahead
by Chris Bowers, Sun Nov 05, 2006 at 08:16:49 PM EST
The Pew poll turnout model suggests parity among self-identifying Democrats and Republicans, just like 2004. It also suggests that the electorate in 2006 will be overwhelmingly conservative compared to 2004. In 2004, according to exit polls, 21% of the electorate self-identified as liberal, and 34% self-identified as conservative. If those same turnout models holds in 2006, then Pew's own voting sample would produce the following result:
Democrats 55%--35% Republicans
Gee, that isn't very close anymore, is it? The problem is that Pew's current turnout model suggests a 10% advancement for conservatives on 2004, with 39% of the electorate as conservative (+5%), and 16% of the electorate as liberal (-5%). There also is no evidence whatsoever to indicate that Democrats and Republicans have remained at parity since 2004. All evidence indicates just the opposite. But anyway, let's assume that the Pew turnout model is correct, and that the nation has grown far, far more conservative in 2006 than it was in 2004. Even then, Democrats have still pulled ahead. Thus, in order to even come close in 2006, Republicans will need to have successfully made the electorate far, far more conservative in 2006 than it was in 2004. In order to win, they will need to go way beyond that.
Here is the deal. There are polls, such as Time and Newsweek, contradicting Pew, Gallup, and ABC. Those polls do not suggest that the nation has grown vastly more conservative than it was in 2004. However, even if all polls suggested that the electorate was far, far more conservative than it was in 2004, Democrats have still pulled ahead anyway. So, the country would have experienced a massive demographic shift that should have been favorable to Republicans, and Democrats have pulled ahead anyway. In a vastly more conservative nation, Democrats pull ahead anyway.
I don't believe that the nation or the electorate became more conservative since 2004. In 2005, all polls showed liberals making sizable gains. But hey, even if it somehow did somehow become vastly more conservative, we are still ahead anyway.
In order to avoid a huge wipeout, and have any chance at narrow control, Republicans are going to need the electorate in 2006 to be just as Republican, and far more conservative, than it was in 2004. They are going to need to crush their 2004 turnout efforts. And even if they were to get that, they would probably still lose anyway. If the 2006 electorate is ideologically identical to the 2004 electorate, Democrats don't just win, they win huge.
Republicans are currently bragging that some polls, which show a vastly more conservative electorate than 2004, only show them losing by six or seven points (the exact amount they won by in 1994). If that is what they are reduced to in order to feel good about themselves, then bully to them. All polling, no matter what insane turnout models it projects, still shows us ahead. Further, except for Pew, it all shows us ahead outside the margin or error (even in Gallup). All district level polling still shows Democrats taking the House. All national polling still shows Democrats taking the House. On top of that, let me make some predictions: the electorate will be more Democratic (relative to Republican) than it was in 2004. It will not be more conservative than it was in 2004. And Democrats will take the House, by at least eight seats, just as my forecast claims. And if they don't, then, well, it might be time to burn this all down.
I have not written any concession speech for the House. It is just like the Connecticut Senate primary. I don't intend to write one. There is no moral victory here. It is all-in. We are not going to be ahead by more than Republicans were in 1994, and then fail to take control. That. Just. Isn't. Going. To. Happen. The will of the people is on our side, and it will not be thwarted. Not this time.