by Chris Bowers, Thu Nov 30, 2006 at 05:16:11 AM EST
by Chris Bowers, Thu Nov 30, 2006 at 05:16:11 AM EST
Several stories speculating that Hillary Clinton may not run since she is not doing anything on the ground in Iowa.
watching Gore and the MSM engage in schoolyard chatter about Al's persona, however changed or unchanged it turns out to be.
The whole Lawwk Bawwx routine, inventing the Internet, out-wonking everybody. He is a good man who too often came off as a stiff campaigning against W.
After he got swindled by Jeb and Kitty Harris, Al supposedly burned all his blue suits and hung out with fringe academics... sort of a Wonder Boys scenario, according to a long New Yorker piece I remember reading after the election.
An Inconvenient Truth and its impact does help a lot, but Gore will have to keep Maureen Dowd and the other substance-avoiders off balance with whatever quips, gimmicks and parlor tricks it takes. When these people get bored they throw things.
Jay Leno let Gore ramble on at length in his visit there last night. Gore fell back on one admonishment, using it in every second sentence, something like "in all seriousness."
We'll have a chance to critique Sen Obama tomorrow, as he'll be a guest of Jay tonight.
Well .. personally .. it will be fun for me .. Springsteen fans have fun with Bruce seeming to inject "in some fashion" in most comments he makes .. so hopefully it will just be seen as endearing in Big Al
In the fact that Frist dropped out... but there's still plenty of time for three adulterers and a Mormon (wasn't that a movie with Ted Danson and Steve Gutenberg?) to pander to the religious right.
(cross-posted): Just had my first look at Yahoo Answers, since Google Answers is going out of business, and the level of political information there is pretty depressing. One open question asked "are democrats for the common man," and virtually every answer posted said "no." In keeping with the 50-state strategy (or, no mind left behind), it could be important to invest some time and effort in answering questions there.
For the 3rd straight day, more reports & signs are coming in that Hillary Clinton may NOT run if Barack Obama jumps in.
The latest today was from Iowa Democratic Chairman who observed that HRC is not building the organization necessary in IOWA.
As I've posted yesterday,Hillary Clinton will have a VERY TOUGH time winning the nomination WITHOUT a strong African-American vote.
Hillary's impressive poll #'s have always included a very significant support from the Black community. In fact, she has much stronger support among Black democrats than any other ethnic group including whites.
If Barack Obama decides to join the fray, this changes the whole democratic party landscape significantly. You can pretty much expect MASSIVE support for Obama from Black voters. That's pretty much 25%-28% of the Democratic party primary electorate right there.
Then, we you throw in the expected strong support that Obama will also get from the Hispanic community which is about 12% of Democratic primary voters. You can pretty expect at least 30%-50% of Hispanic voters will rally around Obama as a fellow minority. The only question of how much will depend on Bill Richardson joining the race. If Richardson does join in, the bottom line is a divided White Electorate will decide our nominee.
And if it is based on just White voters, HRC will be in a very tough position against Edwards, Clark, Bayh. For one thing, she will be the least attractive among the 4 candidates for the Millions of White "Red State" Moderate/Conservative Democratic voters.
From Red states like Iowa, NV,SC, AZ, AR, OH, VA,OK, NC,FL, CO, MS, IN, AL, LA, Wy, MT, GA- Clark, Bayh & Edwards would all be much stronger & more attractive to moderate Democratic voters there than Hillary Clinton.
While Obama's challenge will be to get enough White Votes to take him over the top.
Ironically, it will be Red States who will end up tipping the scale in 2008.
Normally, Black primary voters in Red states are up for grabs & balance out the more moderate/Conservative white voters. But if Obama is in, this changes the whole picture.
As Chuck Todd at Hotline wrote this afternoon,
Hillary looks less and less sure of winning the nomination.
Without a strong Black/Latino base, she pretty much has no real base.
While Edwards & Clark will have a strong base in the Southern state voters & will split the huge Progressive vote across the country.
While Obama has the minority base combined with a chunk of progressive white voters.
With Mark Warner out, Evan Bayh will have a strong base of Moderate/Centrist democrats spread over the Midwest, Southwest & even parts of the South.
Richardson will have the growing Hispanic base to stand on. ( Although it may not be enough yet for 2008-it may take 2012 or 2016 to really feel the strong Hispanic presence in Democratic primaries)
That leaves Hillary Clinton with a lot to think about. Not even Bill Clinton can convince many Blacks to abandon Obama.
With Utah's new map in, I'm really aching to know how the vote on Tom Davis' bill goes. I love this crap.
Today Sen. Barack Obama met with rapper Ludacris in Obama's Chicago office.
Here's to hoping the Supreme Court rules the EPA must regulate greenhouse gases in new cars, etc.
From the Washington Post
If Al Gore runs,I believe he will blow away the field.
If he stays out,I think Edwards will emerge as the main anti-Hillary candidate,who comes out with the nomination,its too early to say.