Utah redistricting map chosen

Cross Posted at The Third Avenue. Bumped--Chris

In the end, the Legislature's special committee decided on a plan whose map was never released to the public...Plan L(PDF).

 L looks somewhat similar to previous plans.  The new 4th district will be Southwestern Utah (Tooele, Juab [save the Eastern jug end where everyone lives], Millard, Beaver, Iron, Washington Counties). However, the 4th also would include Southern Salt Lake County-- South Jordan, West Jordan, Cottonwood Heights, Talyorsville, Sandy, and parts of West Valley. The new 2nd will be like the 1990's 2nd (Northern Salt Lake County, with the Park City part of Summitt County, and a tiny sliver of Davis and Utah Counties [Woods Cross and Alta respectively]).  The new 3rd will include Eastern Utah "centered" around Provo (Morgan, rest of Summitt, Daggett, Wasatch, Utah, Duchesne, Uintah, Carbon, rest of Juab, Sanpete, Emory, Grant, Piute, Wayne, Garfield, San Juan, and Kane Counties).  The new 1st will be centered around Ogden (Box Elder, Cash, Weber, 99% of Davis, and Rich Counties).  

Bottom line, Matheson could run in the 4th, but he would have to overcome super conservative Washington county.  He was born in Iron County, so he should be OK there. He is excited to get back Talyorsville and would love to kick around House Speaker Greg Curtis some more in Sandy.  I wonder if he will bite.  I will lobby him to, because this 2nd district is pretty Democrat friendly.  I can envision a number of candidates who could be successful and still be A) Democrats B) not named Matheson. I think Matheson could win in this 4th, but it will be tough.  All his pork for St. George will come in handy now.  

"We've had a significant amount of public input," Sen. Curt Bramble, R-Provo, committee co-chairman told the Tribune. "There's been a great deal of discussion about the public perception that this is a majority party whitewash. That we are simply trying to gerrymander Republican Party seats. Nothing could be further from the case."

Um I say that is complete Bull.  No member of the public asked for protecting Matheson, not even Matheson.  The number of people wanting a mix of urban and rural districts were solely Republican partisans.  Why don't you ask the people living out in the rural areas if they want to fight for attention with Provo, Salt Lake County, or Davis/Weber Counties?  Of course they never had a hearing in rural areas, the closest they got was in St. George, our fastest growing city.

Tags: 4th seat, Bush, DC, Democrats, GOP, Huntsman, lame duck congress, Matheson, Redistricting, Republicans, Utah (all tags)

Comments

31 Comments

Re: Utah redistricting map chosen
I could understand why Matheson would want the second, St. George is biting of a whole lot more district.
by Bob Brigham 2006-11-29 03:20PM | 0 recs
Re: Utah redistricting map chosen

Matheson is loved in the current 2nd and would still be loved in the proposed 2nd. In the 4th he has the advantage of family history. So, do you play it safe with a given in the 2nd or gamble on another democrat in the 2nd and Matheson in the 4th? It'll definitely need to be his call, if this even passes.

by Mormon Democrat 2006-11-30 01:16PM | 0 recs
2004 results

CD01:

Box Elder - 86/12 Bush
Cache - 82/16 Bush
Davis - 79/19 Bush
Rich - 89/11 Bush
Weber - 70/27 Bush

CD03:

Carbon - 58/40 Bush
Daggett - 76/22 Bush
Duchesne - 85/13 Bush
Emery - 81/18 Bush
Garfield - 85/12 Bush
Grand - 51/45 Bush
Kane - 79/19 Bush
Morgan - 86/12 Bush
Piute - 84/16 Bush
San Juan - 60/39 Bush
Sanpete - 84/16 Bush
Sevier - 86/12 Bush
Uintah - 86/13 Bush
Wasatch - 73/25 Bush
Wayne - 78/21 Bush

CD04:

Beaver - 80/19 Bush
Iron - 83/15 Bush
Millard - 84/13 Bush
Tooele - 73/25 Bush
Washington - 81/17 Bush

Salt Lake, Utah, Summit, and Juab are split.

Salt Lake went 60/38 Bush
Utah County went 86/12 Bush
Summit went 52/46 Bush
Juab went 79/19 Bush

Yeah, this is going to be a hard map for Matheson to deal with.

If this map comes into effect for 2008, Matheson would probably have a better shot at Huntsman than he would at winning re-election.

Unless he faces Cannon in CD03.

by RBH 2006-11-29 03:37PM | 0 recs
Re: 2004 results

Also

if someone were ambitious enough, they would be able to get Presidental and Gubernatorial results for this map.

I think the Utah precinct results are somewhere.

by RBH 2006-11-29 04:06PM | 0 recs
Based on the county data...

It'd be something like this:

UT-01
Bush 77%
Kerry 21%

UT-02
Bush 60%
Kerry 38%

UT-03
Bush 82%
Kerry 16%

UT-04
Bush 67%
Kerry 31%

I think it'd be virtually impossible for any Democrat to win UT-03, since it'd be the most pro-Bush district in the country.

by Democrat724 2006-11-29 04:52PM | 0 recs
Re: Based on the county data...

Hm, on checking. I didn't know that Southern Utah was so unpopulated.

And for all we know, Bishop may be in CD02 with Matheson.

by RBH 2006-11-29 05:47PM | 0 recs
Re: Based on the county data...

I doubt Bishop lives in that part of Woods Cross.  He probably lives in Box Elder County, since that is where he used to teach before he was elected to Congress (oh yeah and he was speaker of the UT house)

by DaveB 2006-11-29 06:07PM | 0 recs
Re: Based on the county data...

Hm. On further checking. You are correct. Bishop is listed as a Brigham City resident in the 108th Congress directory.

by RBH 2006-11-29 09:07PM | 0 recs
Re: Based on the county data...

Bill Orton, a conservative Democrat, held what was mostly that district during the first Bush Administration.  Back then, it was still called "the most Republican district in America", and included Provo and the rural east.  

Heck, it looks a lot like Matheson's district now.  I know, most of those southeastern counties have few people and the parts they took out to make the new 2nd are critical, but still...

I'd love to see Matheson take either the 3rd or 4th, leaving the 2nd open to a possible new Democrat. It's hard to tell which of the two would be better for him. Probably Cannon would go for whichever district Matheson didn't take.

by admiralnaismith 2006-11-30 06:59AM | 0 recs
Re: Based on the county data...

A lot of people would love to see Bill Orton back. I was talking to my father in Provo just before the election. He's a Republican but becoming increasingly dissatisfied with the party. He doesn't like Cannon at all. I'm not sure who he voted for, but he was lamenting the loss of Orton. He'd love to have him back and I'm sure a lot of Republicans who held their nose to vote for Cannon or went for the Constitution party would vote for him again.

by Mormon Democrat 2006-11-30 01:20PM | 0 recs
Re: Utah redistricting map chosen

Granted, UT-2 is probably a good map.

Cannon should get a better challenger now that he has some bluer counties in his district.

Cannon loses Millard, his part of Salt Lake, and Beaver.

Cannon gains all of Southeast Utah.

Bishop gets one heck of a district.

And UT-04 is probably going to elect a Republican by a larger margin than UT-03.

by RBH 2006-11-29 03:46PM | 0 recs
Re: Utah redistricting map chosen
Cannon deserves fierce opposition, the dude is a nut. What is Scott Matheson, JR up to?
by Bob Brigham 2006-11-29 03:50PM | 0 recs
Re: Utah redistricting map chosen

Does Bill Orton have any kids in CD03 who would want to run?

by RBH 2006-11-29 04:04PM | 0 recs
Re: Utah redistricting map chosen

Bill's kids are pre-teens last I checked.  Maybe in twenty years.

by Brian Watkins 2006-11-29 09:51PM | 0 recs
Re: Utah redistricting map chosen

Hell, Orton is still in his fifties, isn't he?  Orton was essentially Bill Clinton's sacrificial lamb in the 1996 election, as Clinton created a national monument in southern Utah to win Arizona's electoral votes -- sacrificing Orton in the process, who barely lost reelection.

Cannon usually has trouble in the Republican primary, and those southeastern counties are pretty Democratic (at least, as far as Utah goes.)  Carbon is traditionally Democratic, Grand went something like 15% for Nader in 2000, and San Juan has part of the Navajo Reservation.

by Tom 2006-11-30 01:39PM | 0 recs
Re: Utah redistricting map chosen

Scott Jr. is on sabbatical(he just stepped down as Dean of Utah Law) at the Woodrow Wilson International Center for Scholars

by DaveB 2006-11-29 06:04PM | 0 recs
I doubt Matheson will lose

He's like Chet Edwards--targeted every election, but not successfully.

by Terryus 2006-11-29 04:08PM | 0 recs
Should that be 4 districts...

... that are all part city and part rural or two city districts and two rural districts?

My redistricting software which tries to be impartial came up with this:

http://bolson.org/dist/20061120_050445_U T4/UT_ba_500.png

That image has the current 3 district map on the left and the 4 district map I came up with on the right. There are a couple small bugs with it I still need to work out but I think the basic plan is sound.

by bolson 2006-11-29 05:28PM | 0 recs
Re: Should that be 4 districts...

If you go on the old fashioned idea that citizens of those places are electing representatives, as opposed to being pawns in a game of political chess, then if there is an urban LTA that is larger than one CD, it should be split in half between two, only participate in three if it is two large for two, and so on.

by BruceMcF 2006-11-30 05:56AM | 0 recs
Matheson v Huntsman?

I highly doubt it.  See Huntsman's 77% approval rating from SUSA.  http://www.surveyusa.com/50State2006/App roval50StateGovernor061120.htm

by Terryus 2006-11-29 05:54PM | 0 recs
Re: Matheson v Huntsman?

I could see that happen a few years down the road for an open senate seat, but not now.

by DaveB 2006-11-30 01:54PM | 0 recs
so then Utah gets one and DC gets 0?

or has someone figured out a way around the constitution?

what are the odds this doesn't turn out +2 GOP +0 Dems?

by benchcoat 2006-11-29 08:36PM | 0 recs
No chance

The bill has a nonseverability clause, so if the DC seat is found unconstitutional, the new Utah seat goes away too (and the offices of delegate and shadow rep come back, and any other changes are reversed).

by KCinDC 2006-11-30 04:55AM | 0 recs
good to know--thank you very much

I got bogged down in what was going on in my quick google check of what was happening.

Thank you!

by benchcoat 2006-11-30 11:20AM | 0 recs
Re: Utah redistricting map chosen

No, Matheson must run in the 2nd. Not only is it the only slightly Democratic-friendly district, but he lives there, and doesn't live anywhere near the 4th. His house is in Salt Lake City proper, all of which is in the 2nd District.

by raginillinoian 2006-11-30 05:01AM | 0 recs
Re: Utah redistricting map chosen

Under the constitution, one doesn't have to live in the district to run in it. You just have to be a resident of the state where the CD is located at the time of election.  Practically, you generally have to live there.  

Matheson has a chance in the 3rd or 4th.  A moderate Democrat could win in the new 2nd not named Matheson.  I would rather strive for two and get one than not even try for two.  

by DaveB 2006-11-30 10:54AM | 0 recs
Re: Utah redistricting map chosen

Not to mention that many representatives in the past who have been redistricted out of a seat move to another house in order to run in a new district.  I think Jim Leach did that in 2002.

by Tom 2006-11-30 01:43PM | 0 recs
Re: Utah redistricting map chosen

I assume Utah will pickup a 4th Congressional seat after the 2010 census,but until the census is taken,how can the legislature create 4 distritcs unless they know the exact population under the one man,one vote doctrine?

Would someone please explain this?

by Litvak36 2006-12-01 02:47AM | 0 recs
Re: Utah redistricting map chosen

They are going on the 2000 census numbers, which is off by a lot because Utah is a really fast growing state (lots of babies and move ins in the last 6 years).  

So even if Utah only gets 1 new seat in 2010, they will gave to dramatically redraw the map even if the Davis bill passes and this plan L passes.

by DaveB 2006-12-01 09:39AM | 0 recs
Re: Utah redistricting map chosen

It's all part of a deal to give DC's delegate full voting rights in the House.  The GOP was willing to go along provided Utah was given a presumably-red seat to counter the reliably Democratic DC seat.  Utah was not picked arbitrarily--they just barely missed the cut for a fourth seat after the 2000 census.

by Finngall 2006-12-01 12:33PM | 0 recs
Re: Utah redistricting map chosen

If Utah got a 4th seat,there would be then 539 electoral votes which would mean there could not be a tie.And of course,a 437 seat House. DC has 3 electoral votes anyway even with no Senators.

by Litvak36 2006-12-01 04:00PM | 0 recs

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