also, have you considered the following? ... from kos

"In our October 8 to 31 tracking polls (since early voting started) we have interviewed a total of 594 early voters. Among these early voters, Jim Pederson is leading Jon Kyl by 4 points: 44% for Pederson compared to 40% for Kyl, with 4% for other candidates and 12% refused. This 4% Pederson lead is all the more remarkable since registered Republicans and Democrats are equally likely to have voted early, and in fact there are more Republicans than Democrats in this early-voting sample of 594 respondents."

That kind of victory won't matter if Bush gets another vacancy on the Supreme Court!

That's all he needs to install permanent one party rule in America. And, of course, every single Republican, no matter what they say will always line up to vote for the most extreme candidate imaginable. Scalito III.

In fact, even with the Democrats in charge of the Senate Bush will try to peel off a couple and defy the Judiciary committee by getting the ful Senate to approve the nomination.

But, that kind of trench warfare might just not work with a Democratic majority. It will whip the base into a frenzy for 2008, which Bush will like, but they might still get "Bork-ed".

My gut says that Lamont is going to win.  Can't substantiate that with any numbers or graphs, it's just a visceral thing.  I think the situation on the ground in CT is different than the pollsters portray it.

Maybe I'm being irrational here, but somehow I just can't accept that Lieberman has a substantial lead.

It's still not the most likely outcome anyone's citing.  But it no longer looks impossible.  If we sweep the top two categories, and pick up either Pederson or Ford, we make it.

I think we'll take the chamber by one seat, 50-49-1 (I believe in Lamont). Additionally, I think we'll take the House by a margin of 250-185. I used this handy tool at WaPo to figure out race-by-race what my projections would be.

If we take the top two tiers, we've already made it.  Without Penderson or Ford.  (I think we'll get Penderson, too)  And we will take the Senate.  Get out and vote!

2012 is going to be one hell of a defense year for us.

From his website

Dear Virginia Sportsmen and Gun Owners,

As a long-time member of the National Rifle Association, you can imagine my surprise when I received a mailing in the form of an Orange Card saying "VOTE FREEDOM FIRST ON NOVEMBER 7 - VOTE GEORGE ALLEN FOR THE U.S. SENATE!"

I am writing this letter to make certain that no Virginia sportsmen or gun owner has any question concerning my stand on Second Amendment and sportsmen rights.

To be clear, I value and will defend your right of self-defense. As a Marine combat veteran who shot "double expert" and once taught the .45 pistol to Officer Candidates, and as a former Secretary of the Navy under Ronald Reagan, I know first hand the importance of armed self-defense by law-abiding citizens as a deterrent to criminals, and in the long term, to would-be tyrants.

I have possessed a concealed-carry permit for many years, and shoot regularly. I have made no secret during this campaign of the fact that I carry. I support a national concealed carry permit. I also will sponsor a bill in the United States Senate that repeals the National Park Gun Ban that disarms only law-abiding citizens in Interior Department/National Park Service across Virginia. And I intend to get it to the floor for a vote.

Please compare this background with that of my opponent. Individual Second
Amendment Rights are ingrained into my Scots-Irish culture, and I stand where I
stand.

On the sporting side, I support opening up more Federal land for sportsmen. Federal land is, after all, the property of all Americans. In addition, I support air and water quality measures that improve wildlife habitat. I will be monitoring the "Farm Bill" and its wildlife habitat programs to make sure that Virginia and our abundance of National Forest lands gets its fair share of funding for our wildlife programs.

You can also imagine my frustration when I received my NRA magazine and saw there was a question mark beside my grade. Only after complaining to the NRA did they finally post my grade on their website. I got an "A" which was purposefully omitted from the NRA orange card that, to my shock, urged a vote for George Allen. The question is, why did they not mention my own lifetime of support on these issues?

In order to fully clear the air, I am making public my 2006 NRA Candidate Survey. You can find that at www.webbforsenate.com/nrasurvey.pdf I challenge George Allen to do the same. We should have no more secret surveys in Virginia when it comes to our right to keep and bear arms.

Please help me clear up this deliberate distortion by an organization that I must regretfully conclude has more on its agenda than protecting the earned Second Amendment rights of our citizens.

If anyone's wondering why as Jane Hamsher, mentioned, Tony Snow decided to "forgive" John Kerry last night on The Factor (he said Kerry's explanation of his comments was 'sufficient') and drop the whole thing, check this out:  Do you think Kerry's comments will affect the outcome of the midterm election for Dems?   26% Yes, 74% No.  

Yeah, it's an interactive MSNBC poll.  But since Republicans tend to swarm (or as they say, "Freep" -- from the GOP website "Free Republic", which touts such tactics) these polls, the very high pro-Democratic response is even more amazing.

I still don't get the Senate math. Maybe because I am not so smart with math.

Assuming we win Chris's "looking good" and "looking close" categories and we lose the "not looking good" category and Joementum is with the Repubs, what happens?

Good analysis, although I think you might be getting caught up in the Greenspanian-like "froth" of a positive election cycle when you characterize 49-49-2 as having control of the Senate.  Joe won't hesitate to whore himself to the highest bidders, and won't exhibit a shred of shame in doing so.

Thanks Lucas. That means we need an upset win in either Pederson or Lamont!

Personally I am not that excited about Ford although he'll vote for a Dem majority. But on key votes he'll defect. So we may still wind up with another Scalito.

Connecticut may be where we lose the Senate after winning the 6 seats necessary to take control.