John McCain - 377
Al Gore - 161

Clark - only Arkansas and DC
McCain - everything else

Obama versus Condi

Obama loses 76 to 462.  

McCain - 456
Richardson - 73

...I think I may have forgotten the actual numbers because I clicked away and then it tried to make me pay to look at it again. Nonetheless, this is pretty much what it looked like.

Gore   - 526
Romney - 12

Damn! Gore 148, Giuliani 390 :(
Only CA, OR, and some states in northeast for Al...

Obama vs. Giuliani - Obama wins only IL and DC. These polls are f-ed, save your money, Chris!

I found the results suspicious. Most matchups I tried showed GOP landslides in all but a few states.

McCain 351, Clinton 187.  McCain takes Connecticut, Vermont, Wisconsin, Minnesota, Oregon . . . hahahahah.

538 to 0.  Edwards sweeps!

Party like it's 1964 again.

Edwards 538
Gingrich 0

Bwa-hah-hah!

Damn it - two seconds late and my choice is worthless now . :(

FDR: 430
Ronald Reagan: 108

I couldn't resist that matchup.  

Warner 394
Gingrich 144

Warner takes former red states NV, CO, AR, TN, KY, VA, FL, MO

Edwards 529, Romney 9... would be nice, but yeah, right.

Clinton 518 Huckabee 20.

Huck wins Montana, Idaho, Utah, Wyoming, and Nebraska. Doesn't win a single state in the south. Not even his own state.

This thing is beyond stupid.

Giuliani - 354
Clinton - 184

Of course, I don't know that I see either of them winning their party's noms, but whatever...

Obama 28
McCain 510

Gore 451
Hagel 87

FYI - Some voting analysis by American University available on their College of Public Affairs website.  It's 82 pages long with a sh*tload of charts.  I've just downloaded it and it's going to take me a bit to get through it.  

http://spa.american.edu/newsitem.php?ID= 37

The document is in PDF form available at the bottom of the page.

This is bull. Iove Gore but there is no way he beats Jeb 517-21. jeb only gets ID, WY, UT, and AL. I cannot believe that Jeb would only get 44% in FL. Plus I don't remember selecting a third party candidate and if Gore gets 48% and Jeb gets 44% then we are missing 8%.

gore - 311
condi - 227

gore gets the west coast, nevada, colorado, tennessee, arkansas, missouri, iowa
but he loses montana, minnesota, all the red states, and indiana.

mmm... well, my sense is that this looks mostly right, except that i bet he'd smoke condi in montana.  also, my sense is that some of the tighter states (ohio, new hampshire, etc) would be really conflicted over who they chose.

note: he apparently wins tennessee 48-45. funny, gore-condi in red states would be like jindal-bianco wherein the voters really don't want to vote for either.

second note: hah hah, like gore and condi would ever face off.

Edwards-McCain

266-272

Edwards in Ohio, McCain in NH, Maine, maybe some other small state.

I agree shouldn't take them as gospel, but interesting.

Clark vs. McCain - Clark wins AK, McCain takes the rest :-(

Gore v. Allen:
508 to 30

People are ignoring Gore way too much.  He is the ONLY Democrat who could thwart a potential Hillary Express.  No problem with cash, no problem with name recognition, experience etc.  And let's not forget the minor detail that he's won a presidential campaign before but got SHAFTED!!  More importantly for Dem primary voters, he was right on Iraq, unlike Hillary, and also unlike Hillary hasn't kowtowed to right wingers one iota...

Al Gore a strong candidate? Ugh. Can we please just move on and find some new blood. Send Gore, Kerry, Edwards & Hillary away and let someone else lead.

It looks like, according to SurveyUSA, McCain is a mighty, mighty man.

Some people are taking this way too seriously.  The election is 2 years away.  This is mostly showing name recongition.

Yes, McCain right now beats Edwards. But only, as was pointed out, by 6 electoral votes. And McCain, according to the polling, would win Massachussets, maines and New Hampshire.

I find it very hard to believe that McCain would beat Edwards in any of those states, let a,onw Massachusetts.

On the other hand, They have Edwards beating McCain in South carolina so that's kind of a wash.

They also show McCain beating Edwards in Washington and Oregon, whcih I think would be reversed. So, the electoral math is VERY favorable towards Edwards in reality.

It appears that Missouri, and Iowa will be the swing states in that matchup.

i was actually polled in this survey. surprised the heck out of me, but it was the night or two after the election last week. it was a buttload of options on presidential match ups, and they kept pitting odd republicans like Tom Tancredo against different democrats.  Towards the end, I really got bored with it, but my favorite 2 questions, in the "perpective" column, at the very end just after FDR vs Regan were:

Howard Stern-D vs Don Imus-R

and get this

Keith Olberman-D vs Bill Oreilly-R

loved that lol.  I voted for the dem every single time until they threw Al Sharpton against Condi Rice, then i was genuenly undecided

Giuliani beats Gore, with the former picking up 390 EV.

Sad.

May it not come to be.

Gore vs. Huckabee

510-28

Gore takes all but AK, ID, OK, UT, WY, ND, and SD.

Huckabee doesn't even take Arkansas (loses 50-44).

Except for Arkansas, though, this is likely mostly a function of name recognition. In Arkansas its likely a function of the fact they actually know the guy. (I live in Arkansas for a while, and the idea of a President Huckabee is scary.)

As has been noted above, this is only meaningful if the contenders are already well-known nationally.  (Which, e.g., Bill Clinton was not at this point in 1990.)

For Dems this means Kerry, Clinton, Gore, Edwards.  Obama, Clark, etc are pretty well unknown except to the kinds of people who regularly read mydd :)

For GOP probably McCain, Giuliani, Rice, Gingrich, Bush. I'm not sure Frist even is very well-known nationally.  

Clinton loses to Giuliani 184-354;  Oregon goes Giuliani 51-41.

Also: what's the MoE on these things?  The electoral college has highly nonlinear response to uncertainties.

Gore over Romney, 526-12

Guiliani wins 438-100
Edwards gets WI, IA, MO, WA, CA, VT, DC

[delurking]

Gore 511, Gingrich 27

If the stakes weren't so high, I'd probably pay just to follow that campaign.

McCain - Feingold (because I thought it was cute)
525 - 13
Feingold gets WI and DC.

McCain racks up 501 EVs against Biden.

I put up Jesus for the Democrats against a bowl of warm spinach for the Republicans.

All I have to say is Jesus has alot of work to do everywhere but in DC.

I ran the Edwards-McCain one, too. I think Edwards-McCain is one of the most likely match-ups in 2008.
McCain 272, Edwards 266.
Really?  I think Edwards would do well here in Oregon.  Democrats don't necessarily care for him, but a lot of independents and Republicans like the guy.  More than McCain?  Maybe not.  Oregon, though, is trending Democratic.  Gore won by about 6,500 votes in 2000, Gov. Kulongoski won by about 28,000 in 2002, Kerry won by 68,000, and Kulongoski just won re-election at 52-43.  We just took the state house back.  Would Oregon really turn red just for McCain?
In their match-up, Oregon would be enough to turn the tide.
But are we sure Edwards would get Ohio as he does in the survey?  I think he would, because he's a populist.  But McCain gets Pennsylvania.  I doubt that.  Would Edwards get SC?  Probably not.  Would McCain get the Northeastern states, or Washington?  I doubt it.  Big question- Who gets Virginia?  McCain narrowly gets it, I think.

I DON´T UNDERSTAND THIS ONE:
 Russ vs. Romney

Romney by far (340 something to 190 something), Russ only take CA, IA, WA, WI, IL, OH, NY, NJ, VT, DE, DC, MD and AR!!!!! 37.7 to 37.6
According to this one Russ can´t win even against Romney, I didn´t want to put Next because the name recognition thing, but against Mitt I thought was fair.

Edwards 538 - Huckabee 0

meh this means name recognition only

Interesting match for sure.

No way I'm paying for simple-minded nonsense like this toy.  

If you go to Pollster.com Survey USA has an ad that you can click on to do another matchup.

When comparing those with high name recognition on each side, you get an idea of their relative standing 2 years out.

For Democrats, those with high name recognition are: Clinton, Kerry, Gore and (to a somewhat lesser extent) Edwards.

For Republicans, they appear to be: Giuliani, McCain, Gingrich and (more or less) Rice.

Of course, for the others, name recognition doesn't come for free.

...survey at this point, the data posted above by everybody does seem to indicate that Edwards may be the strongest canidate on our side at this point in time.  Since Feingold dropped out, I am currently canidateless, and, while I like Edwards, his Iraq War and Patriot Act votes, plus his extremely limited government experience (a single senate term, with no other government experience at all such as mayor or state legislature), have caused me pause in the past.

The Skinny vs. McCain

Edwards is -6 ECVotes
Hillary is -164 ECVotes
Gore is -216 ECVotes
Obama is -482 ECVotes
Clark is -520 ECVotes

Can even the blind see the obvious?

McCain v. Richardson is 499-53 with Richardson getting only NM, NY, & DC.

In '08, we're very likely to see Bloomberg make a quixotic as an indy that will pull major votes away from the GOP. The map may change considerably with whomever is the Dem candidate with a strong run by Bloomy or any of the "Unity 08" folks.

Perhaps we should hold off with Obama until 2012. He's the only real ace up our sleeves, and it would really suck if his political career ended after he served two years in the Senate, then ran for President and lost.

Warner: 16 (Virginia)
McCain: 522

Same for Giuliani.

Warner: 139
Condee: 399

I was surprised at how bad these numbers are. I still think Warner and Richardson are the best two candidates, and that their numbers will improve as people outside their own states hear of them.

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