Mini-Bush & Mini-Rove

by Jerome Armstrong, Mon Nov 13, 2006 at 04:19:52 AM EST

I wonder if George Bush will see this cover of Newsweek?  I've been reading "Five Days in Philadelphia", which is the story of Willkie's rise to win the nomination in '40, but took a bit off last night to read some of "Bush on the Couch", which is all about explaining how George Bush ticks-- everything's in relation to out-doing his father.


So in that vein, I'm sure that the adults in the WH will keep this issue of Newsweek out of Bush's site, cause he's liable to reject Baker's bringing to the table otherwise.


There's also a good read on Rove with this nugget:

Rove placed so much faith in his figures that, after the elections, he planned to convene a panel of Republican political scientists--to study just how wrong the polls were.

And Real Clear Politics is so bummed.

The real lesson for reading polls here, and '06 just verified '04 on this, is that averaging of polls rocks (when there are enough of timely value and across the modeling spectrum), and has become the new de facto premium for political prediction-- view it as just another case where the internet has empowered average people to trump the insiders. Rove thought he had THE polls, when he really had just one of many, and many together proves once again more powerful.

Tags: George Bush, Karl Rove (all tags)

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Re: Mini-Bush & Mini-Rove

I've been meaning to read that book, Jerome.  Wendell Willkie is one of my political heroes.  How is it?

by Steve M 2006-11-13 05:00AM | 0 recs
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Re: Mini-Bush & Mini-Rove

Very well written, and the writer involves his own story into it (though not in an overbearing way), as he was a young political junkie listening to it all go down on the radio.

by Jerome Armstrong 2006-11-13 07:21AM | 0 recs
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Rove

That is simply astonishing.  I gave him credit for just rallying morale to avert an even larger disaster by acting so smug, but that shows he too, jumped the shark.

They're completely lost now.  None of their models make sense, in their math, they should have won.  That bodes so well for us in the future, this kind of rooking has got to rock their confidence.

It's always the ones without a shred of doubt who take being proven wrong the worst.  We were a lot more ready to lose this election than they were.

by scientician 2006-11-13 05:09AM | 0 recs
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Jump The Shark

I e-mailed Jay Cost who wrote Jump the Shark for RCP. I hadn't read his post-election article 'Why I Jumped the Shark' where he eats his crow. He seemed really upset in his reply about so many people giving him shit and that he would do no more public writing. He also feels that he missed only by 10 and that that isn't much, but it seems to me he missed by 15+. More generally with the Senate going Dem, his original aguement that things are not as bad for the Repub as the numbers suggest, is really wrong...it was a big election and the Repubs did get thumped big time.

by RiffRider 2006-11-13 09:30AM | 0 recs
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Panel of political scientists, my ass

Rove made that up.

Uncritical, hero-worshipping Newsweek might have asked how far along said plans had progressed, which political scientists had he talked to about them, whether the printer had the invitations yet--but no, from Karl's mouth to our ears it goes, unimpeded.

Rove projected a confidence he could not have felt. His only interest was in making reporters hesitate before writing the obvious story, that the Democrats were about to take over Congress.

by stevehigh 2006-11-13 05:10AM | 0 recs
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Re: Mini-Bush & Mini-Rove

I repeat, even though there was an "election" there will be no change.  It only took me three days to figure that out.

by Lasthorseman 2006-11-13 05:18AM | 0 recs
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Re: Mini-Bush & Mini-Rove

Ya gotta see Billmon's photoshop!

http://www.billmon.org/

by mpower1952 2006-11-13 05:34AM | 0 recs
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Re: Mini-Bush & Mini-Rove

Forgive me for not being able to recall the source, but I read last week that Rove knew he was going to lose the House.  If my memory serves, I believe what I saw was something to the effect that even under a best case scenario, with everything breaking their way, Rove forecast a net loss of 17 seats.  

I am inclined to believe the "Karl knew" line -- Rove doesn't strike me as a Gringrich-style hubristic ideologue.  And besides, in my experience it's usually better to give your adversary too much credit than to "mis-underestimate" him.

by Angus P 2006-11-13 07:27AM | 0 recs
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Re: Mini-Bush & Mini-Rove

It all kind of makes you wonder if what happened with Rove and the election is the same as Iraq, meaning that only positive information that supported what they wanted to hear got through...

by Jon Willits 2006-11-13 10:10AM | 0 recs
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Re: Mini-Bush & Mini-Rove

Rove was just talking crap.  He projected confidence to keep the base interested.  He's not a genius, but he's no frickin idiot either.  Maybe he told George they were going to sweep both the house and senate, but who cares?

I'm sick of psycho-analysing these ruthless bastards.  If I were in Pelosi's place, I would've phoned him up and told him, "Look Georgie, we've got you by the short and curlies now, so you'd better behave or I'm gonna tell Conyers and Waxman to SIC BALLS"

by CranesAreFlying 2006-11-13 06:38PM | 0 recs

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