VA-Sen: Webb, People-Power, Move Clear of Allen

This is starting to look like a replay of 2005, where Tom Kaine pulled ahead right at the end of the Virginia campaign. Four straight polls, all conducted this weekend, show Jim Webb ahead:No matter the type of poll, it is all converging to a small, but real, Webb lead right now. He clearly has the momentum as the race draws to a close. Hundreds of people are showing up at every campaign event, and right now it is very easy to smell a big upset brewing in Virginia. When I do my Senate update, I will project Virginia as a Democratic pickup.

Whether Jim Webb is a progressive, a conservative, a libertarian, or whatever, it is becoming clear that campaigns which have the people-powered, progressive movement behind them are smashing all expectations this year. Look at Sacramento area candidates like Charlie Brown (CA-04) and Jerry McNerney (CA-11), who are both far surpassing expectations for competitiveness. Brown and McNerney might be substantially different from one another on the ideological front, but they have the movement fully behind them. The same can be said for Jon Tester, Ned Lamont and Jim Webb. All three are probably very different from each other ideologically, but all three won primaries where they were once way behind and opposed by the party establishment. All three have also significantly risen in the general election. That even goes for Lamont, who was down 24 points to Lieberman in the general election trial heat in the final, pre-primary Q-poll.

The people-powered movement can supply the resources to do remarkable things for Democrats of all kinds. Lame-ass, elitist, corporate Democrats who still view grassroots as a destructive, left-wing force on the party need to wake up and realize that the progressive movement does not only support progressive candidates. We are here for the good of the entire party, because as progressives we know we are all in this together. If only all Democrats held such an enlightened perspective.

Tags: Jim Webb, polls, progrssive movement, VA-Sen (all tags)

Comments

22 Comments

Re: VA-Sen: Webb, People-Power, Move Clear of Alle

chris:

don't let the haters get to you.  you - and the rest of the progressive blogosphere - are doing remarkable things.  there will be many surprises next week, and I hope that Va-Sen is among them....

by 2manychefs 2006-10-31 06:59AM | 0 recs
Re: VA-Sen: Webb, People-Power, Move Clear of Alle
At this point, I don't want VA-Sen to be a surprise. Right now, Webb is ahead. The surprise would be if Allen won!
by Chris Bowers 2006-10-31 07:02AM | 0 recs
Great news

electoral-vote.com linked to an MIT student who did a really interesting analysis.

He uses an analysis method that doesn't just average the last X polls, but "ages" the older polls to make them less influential to the result.  

He concludes the democrats have a 20% chance of taking the senate, and of the 3 toss-ups, VA, TN and MO, Webb had the best chance (just under 50%).

I think he's too pessimistic on MO, due to Talent being on the wrong side of several ballot initiatives which will push McCaskill supporters to the polls.

MT and NJ are very unlikely to go Republican by his analysis.  I'm still figuring a 50-50 senate.

by scientician 2006-10-31 07:04AM | 0 recs
It's surprising...

It's surprising that pointing out to the electorate that Webb writes tough-guy war novels that are read by the Marines didn't help Allen's campaign.

by Preston 2006-10-31 07:05AM | 0 recs
Re: It's surprising...

I've felt the same way about the "Webb Was Against Women in the Military" ads that run nonstop here in VA.  As bad as it sounds, that's probably not something that bothers alot of Virginia conservatives.  

It might even be a plus for them.

by jasonInVA 2006-10-31 07:34AM | 0 recs
we do have a big tent

Well said Chris. This is what I have been trying to set straight with some people who like to bash the grassroots movement as intolerant of different ideologies. Webb is not exactly going to be invited to the board of Counterpunch. Yet, for me, his election is as important as the Lamont race(though I am more personally invested in the Lamont race). And on a party level, the Webb race is probably even more important.

by Pravin 2006-10-31 07:08AM | 0 recs
Re: we do have a big tent

Yeah, and I'd also like to mention that the activists who nominated Jim Webb are predominantly more liberal than he is. If they'd wanted a traditional Democrat, Harris Miller was the perfect LieberDem, but they wanted a moderate anti-war candidate who would be competitive in every county in Virginia -- and they got one.

by msnook 2006-10-31 10:10AM | 0 recs
VA Senate race

It's TIM Kaine, not Tom.

by leftist southpaw 2006-10-31 07:11AM | 0 recs
news on Lamont

From Rasmussen:

"In the Senate race, Independent Senator Joseph Lieberman leads Democrat Ned Lamont 48% to 40% (see crosstabs). Early this month, Lieberman led 50% to 40%."

by tremayne 2006-10-31 07:11AM | 0 recs
Re: news on Lamont

The problem that I see with the CT senate race is that lamont is stuck at 40% in the polls. He does not seem to have much movement. Hopefully it start to change in a positive direction this week.

by ab initio 2006-10-31 09:39AM | 0 recs
Clear of Allen

Webb was Schumer's wet dream in Virginia.  How was he opposed by the Party Apparatus?

by MyDD Fan 2006-10-31 07:17AM | 0 recs
Re: Clear of Allen
The local party, rom what I understand, was mainly behind Miller.
by Chris Bowers 2006-10-31 07:19AM | 0 recs
Re: Clear of Allen

Completely false. Miller was the liberal-leaning Democrat many expected to win the nomination. Virginia (and national) Democratic leaders clearly projected an easier battle for Webb and fell in line. While Webb was certainly supported by the blogosphere, his support was pretty wide among establishment Dems too.

by gbcollins21 2006-10-31 07:22AM | 0 recs
The local/national split.

Schumer and the national dems came to support Webb very late in the primary, and nobody in Virginia seemed to notice. Miller, on the other hand, had the support of the local party, which helped a lot.

Just like the CT-Sen primary, one side had the activists, the other side had the party and a slew of low-information voters (who follow the advice of their community leaders, who in turn trust party leaders they've worked with).  

by msnook 2006-10-31 10:45AM | 0 recs
Make them remember

I'm under no illusions that these candidates will be strong progressives and, for now, their leader vote is enough.  The longer term challenge is making them remember who was there for them before anyone cared about them, and were in the trenches with them at election time, when the "New" Democrats pressure them to vote the wrong way on noxious items like the bankruptcy bill.

by Steve in Sacto 2006-10-31 07:23AM | 0 recs
Re: VA-Sen: Webb

Please, please, please....keep building momentum for Webb....we need to sprint across the finish line, as that pr*ck in the White House would say.

by Bush Bites 2006-10-31 07:29AM | 0 recs
Re: VA-Sen: Webb,
The people of VA are fedd up with Senator "Macaca."  Webb is a perfect alternative. In 2000 Allen recieved 19% of the black vote. This time around hell be lucky if he recieves 9%!
On another note I can truly say I am DISSAPOINTED with the CNN poll showing Corker pulling ahead in Tennessee!  If you took both candidates and put them in any former Union state, Ford woould be ahead by at least 5 points.
by nzubechukwu 2006-10-31 07:36AM | 0 recs
Re: VA-Sen: Webb, People-Power, Move Clear of Alle

You are absolutely right pointing out the contrast between liberal McNerney and conservative Brown.  The same people are helping both, despite the fact that Brown wants to build a fence on the border.

This weekend about a quarter of the volunteers for Brown seemed to have blog screennames.  It was really quite incredible.

by juls 2006-10-31 07:38AM | 0 recs
I really do love Chris

When Chris gets pissed, he's at least coherent.
I love this guy.

Even better, Ford is battling hard and the registered voters poll shows a 2% difference, but the weak polling on 'likely' voters shows an 8% difference.

Tennessee was alot closer than people remember in 2004 - and it only drew to a close and finished for the republicans when the negative ads started -

"Corkers" negative advertising against Ford is backfiring in his face.  At 47% to 45%, thats very poor performance for his advertising to be still within a statistical dead heat after so much money poured into it.

It looks like the Republican "DLC" people ignore their grasssroots as well. They are pumping money into Claire and also trying to unseat the Gentleman from Statesboro down here... they are really pulling back into damage control mode.

Bush being in states with 100% republican loyalty right now only tells you he's not interested in helping anyone out in a horse race.

-=-

Meanwhile here in Georgia, Democrat Zell Miller just endorsed Rick Santorum.

Folks, I've been telling you, you have to deal with Georgia. The devil went down here looking for some souls to steal...

by heyAnita 2006-10-31 07:47AM | 0 recs
Move Clear of Allen

If FDR was alive he would be standing with those of us who are progressives.

by global yokel 2006-10-31 08:10AM | 0 recs
Also Deval Patrick

Patrick definitely counts as an outsider candidate who got the progressive movement behind him to strongly win a primary and surge to a commanding lead in the general.

by The Cunctator 2006-10-31 08:12AM | 0 recs
Has anyone seen the crosstabs?

In any of the Virginia polls, specifically Rasmussen?

Webb has been even among the womens vote for months. If these new polls show him with a sudden edge there, I'll be much more confident in the margin, than if the mens vote has declined for Allen.

by Gary Kilbride 2006-10-31 02:22PM | 0 recs

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