I kind of saw the campaign breaking this way last week when I last made a Senate Update, and it holds true today as well: the path toward Missouri as the deciding state in the Senate continues right on schedule. Webb continues to rise in Virginia, and Menendez has seized the lead in New Jersey as well. Tester continues to hang on in Montana, as does Cardin in Maryland. With Ford struggling a bit in Tennessee, despite internals showing him up five, the Senate thus comes down to one race: Missouri.

The last two phone polls from Missouri show the race exactly tied, 49-49 and 47-47. You have to like Democratic chances to scoop up the final undecideds in a friendly election such as this, and with Jim Talent's re-elect and job approval both below 45%. Then again, you have to wonder about the Republican "firewall" of resources in Missouri, Talent's huge cash edge, and Republican turnout operations in red states. Not to mention that this race could hardly have been any closer from start to finish.

Watch Missouri, and watch it closely. For a campaign this important, it is stunning how little press coverage it has received outside of Michael J. Fox. I'm not saying that there couldn't be some surprises on Election Day that would shift Missouri's position as the deciding factor, but I am saying that it currently strikes me as impossible for Democrats to win the Senate if we don't win Missouri. I am also not saying that we have a good chance to retake the Senate--I still think the odds are against us. However, with surges by Webb and Menendez, the brass ring is within our grasp once again. Right now, I'd peg our odds for Senate control at around 10-20%, because we do have to sweep all of the close races in New Jersey, Virginia, Maryland and Montana for Missouri to be the deciding factor.

On the web: Claire McCaskill for Senate.