Good update, but...

You might want to take Butch Otter out of "Safe Republican" since he's now in "Lean Republican" territory.

CA is a shame.

The fratricide during the Dem primary increased the negatives on the nominee and left him broke having to spend tens of millions in winning a pyrhic victory.

The governors are the crop from which we can harvest good presidential candidates and CA being such a large state ought to have a decent bunch of Dem governor candidates. I think this was a lost opportunity.

Boy, am I looking forward to next Tuesday evening.
Have secured a major inventory of popcorn and beer, and have sent out invites to my political co-conspirators.  We will be all over the TV and the computer, probably until the very wee hours.
I'm in an undisclosed location in upstate NY, hopefully the early returns from out here in the East will be an indicator of good things to come across the nation.

Not that it really matters, but California right now surely qualifies in the "Safe Republican" column.

(But here's to Villaraigosa in 2010!)

I would put Florida into "leans republican."  There's some definite tightening and Crist did extremely poorly (and Davis fairly well) in last night's debate.  Plus, there's finally some ads running for Davis.  It'll be close, Crist may not be a foregone conclusion after all.

First, lets not rehash the primary but its quite clear that Gibson would have been torn to shreds by Gibbons on precisely the issues that Titus beat him with. Plus he had limited support among the Dem base and would have had to spend all fall shoring it up, thereby ceding precisely the center where TItus is now competitive.

If anything, the gripe is that Gibson hasn't supported the Democratic ticket in any way.

But thats water long under the bridge.

As for Gibbons, thats interesting about reports of the sentence GIbbons faces etc. My sense of media coverage today is less sanguine; too much unsourced talk of the tapes and too much replaing of Gibbons self-pitying attacks on his victim on am right-wing talk radio.

Metro is trying to fend off claims that the tapes exonerate him, and I think you are right that after tomorrow's coverage of the court ruling, the next set of stories will be about the bizarre handling of the tapes, the prospect of incorrect, incomplete or doctored evidence.

The RJ will report poll results tomorrow that show Gibbons slightly ahead and that will lead to another round of stories about how he's holding on. But rumors are that more reliable polling is turning up results more ominous for Gibbons, if Titus and the Dems get the big edge in turnout they are hoping for.

But the real question I think is whether or not Titus can cut through the noise and get her case made; she's still got to give wavering undecideds or lazy dems a solid reason to go vote for her.

That's rumored on Las Vegas sites tonight. Mason-Dixon is overdue to release a poll and a former Las Vegas Review Journal political reporter is saying inside sources tell him it will show Jim Gibbons leading Dina Titus by 4. That's the closest she has been and I'm pleased by that number. No word what the exact percentages are, or number of undecideds.

Titus is going to have to explode the gender gap over the final week but if there are enough women among the undecideds it can happen. Mason-Dixon normally overstates Republicans in Nevada. Their final 2004 poll gave Bush a 6 point margin but he won by closer to 2.

I know I've posted it many times but we boneheaded this race by not funding it post primary. Jim Gibson, the nominee we rejected, was a far superior fundraiser to Titus, outspending her more than 2-1. If you're going to nominate the more liberal candidate in a state like this you've got to realize she needs help financially since the natural sources are lesser in number. Titus was basically off the air from the August 15 primary until late September, allowing Gibbons to relentlessly define her as Dina Taxes.