GOP abandons three more House seats

by Jerome Armstrong, Tue Oct 31, 2006 at 02:46:27 PM EST

Good news comes in three:

WASHINGTON - Signaling retreat, House Republicans are scaling back television advertising in three highly contested races, officials said Tuesday, including Rep. Curt Weldon (news, bio, voting record)'s bid for an 11th term in Pennsylvania and open seats in Colorado and Ohio...

...Weldon, a 10-term lawmaker, has become ensnared in a federal corruption investigation. It appeared that much of the advertising money the National Republican Congressional Committee had intended for his seat in the campaign's final days would be redirected to help Pennsylvania Reps. Michael Fitzpatrick and Jim Gerlach.

The two other races where Republicans are scaling back advertising include the Ohio district that convicted Rep. Bob Ney has represented, and the one Rep. Bob Beauprez vacated to run for governor of Colorado.

House Republicans have reported spending more than $3 million to hold Ney's seat so far, and it appeared that at least a portion of the money intended for that race will now be spent to help Rep. Deborah Pryce, who is locked in a difficult campaign elsewhere in the state.

The Colorado race pits Democrat Ed Perlmutter against Republican Rick O'Donnell. Perlmutter has led comfortably in recent polls, and Republican strategists apparently concluded the money ticketed for that race could be better spent trying to help re-elect Rep. Marilyn Musgrave, seeking a new term in a different part of Colorado.

Add PA 7th, CO 7th, and OH 18th to AZ 8th, FL 16th, and TX 22nd.

Tags: House 2006 (all tags)

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Re: GOP abandons three more House seats

It is not necessarily a good thing. It means more money for other races. If the republicans strategy works they may only lose 1 seat in Colorado and only 1 from Penn 6,7,8. The democrats are playing to win the closest races first and the republicans are playing to safe the second and third tier races first. Those stragies seem to me to lead to a democratic house but not with a large majority.

by The Professor 2006-10-31 02:57PM | 0 recs

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Re: GOP abandons three more House seats

Money isn't saving them. The Democrats are able to match them and even exceed them in some instances, and the Democratic message of change is much stronger than the "stay the course" Republican one. It means we can shift resources too.

by MyDD Fan 2006-10-31 03:14PM | 0 recs

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Re: GOP abandons three more House seats

I was thinking the same thing...

Has anyone matched any poll trends up on a broad scale compared to ad buys?

They pumped cash in OH before pulling out, and it seemed Brown actually extended his lead.

The cash spent on Chafee was a waste, even though he squeaked through the primary.

Webb now seems to have momentum after a big GOP ad buy.

In TN - it seems GOP buys have at best stalled Ford's momentum (and I think even that's arguable).

PA, CA, WA, CO... I don't see where any GOP cash have done anything much beyond slow the bleeding.

I suppose Bean's lost a point or 2, but she's still ahead oustide the margin.

I hear some overly optimistic GOP rumblings about a few GA seats... but if the GOP is staking this election on taking out 2 southern Dems -- while losing 25 seats elsewhere, well... then good luck with that.

by zonk 2006-10-31 04:44PM | 0 recs

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Re: GOP abandons three more House seats

NC-8 and NC-11 have the 3rd and 6th richest members of the House, Robin Hayes and Charles Taylor.

They both polled at 44% in the Oct 8-10 polls by Majority Watch. Despite free spending campaigns and essentially unlimited capability to self-fund, the Majority Watch polls released yesterday put them both at: 44%.

Sometimes, it just doesn't matter how much you have to spend if you offer nothing but lies and fear, and it looks like this is one of those years. NC will send Larry Kissell and Heath Shuler to take their place in DC.

by Bear83 2006-10-31 06:19PM | 0 recs

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three more House seats

I still worry that when Rove abandons a race, it is not because he is pessimistic about the outcome, but rather because he and Diebold have cooked the results already.

by global yokel 2006-10-31 03:23PM | 0 recs

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Re: three more House seats

i don't think they have diebold in PA. Let's not fall prey to the Rovian Genius Myth. Its Curt Weldon. They guy has several investigations going right now and he is bat shit crazy.

by democracyinalbany 2006-10-31 03:28PM | 0 recs

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Re: three more House seats

Seriously...

If Rove's grand strategy involves putting Iraq front and center by picking a fight with someone not even running this cycle, well... then he may be evil, but he sure ain't no genius. It doesn't even take a genius to recognize you can't replay 2004 - when the country was close to 50/50 on Iraq rather than the 65-35 country we are now. He can tout the GOP turnout operation all he wants -- it was the centrist and the moderate who bit their lips and voted CiC incumbent in 2004 that put George over the top. I hardly think they'll be offering the same benefit of the doubt and a 3rd chance in 2006 to his enablers.

by zonk 2006-10-31 04:52PM | 0 recs

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Re: three more House seats

If he (or henchmen) are going to try to cook the races in Ohio, they'll be learning what Polyani meant by "Double Movement", where an action in one direction provokes a counteraction in the other direction. If they try to be subtle about it, it will just modify the losing percentage, and if they go for broke, they will be caught and hung to dry in public, in a state where Taft's administration has already established the "Republican = corrupt" equation in the minds of many people.

... which, of course, seriously dents their chances in 2008, given that the Republicans have never elected a President without carrying Ohio.

by BruceMcF 2006-10-31 05:56PM | 0 recs

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Great news

add it this great bit from Kentucky. Now we're cooking.

(If anyone's interested, I'm going to cover local blogs covering the count down, ie. stories like the above...on k/o.)

by kid oakland 2006-10-31 03:23PM | 0 recs

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Re: Great news

So is KY-3 LU-Wa-Vul or LU-Wee-Vil? I could never get that straight.

I'm most encouraged by the news in KY-04, since that also bodes well for southwestern Ohio.

by BruceMcF 2006-10-31 06:04PM | 0 recs

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Re: GOP abandons three more House seats

"GOP abandons three more House seats"

The correct phrasing is:

"GOP cuts and runs from three more House seats."

We should be trying to throw the "cut and run" phrase back at them every chance we get. They may start avoiding that phrase if we do.

Brian

by Brian63 2006-11-01 08:12AM | 0 recs