I'm sure that they stand behind their polling, but they may or may not have the model correct, and that is why it's 'with a pinch' that we have to see if it pans out or not.

Hopefully, it does. Otherwise, Majority Watch will have to go the way of pollster Scott Rasmussen's 2000 IVR creation "Portrait of America".

The only problem is the Majority Watch polls don't really stack up with other public polling on the races... Shays up by 10 in CT-4?  Gabbi Gifford ahead of right wing nutjob Graf only by 4 in AZ-8?

This is so positive, it's scary.  I just hope to hell it's accurate.  

Note that 28 races have a lead of five or fewer points.  If this poll is accurate, the wave depends on our final eight days of hard, hard work.  

to the netroots list.  Charlie Brown has had great support from Firedoglake and Blue America/Down With Tyranny, both in dollars raised and getting boots on the ground.  And, I might add, with no help from the DCCC.  

All I have to say is "Landslide Baby!"

The thing I hate most about Majority Watch is that it is going to contribute to making us overconfident.  We can't go into the final week thinking "landslide."  We have to fight like we're 10 points behind running on one leg and a crutch.  

We have to exhaust ourselves, then we can party.

Can't we just vote tomorrow already and get it over with?

If this poll is right about the NY 20th (Gillibrand with a double-digit lead over Sweeney?) it is a very big deal.  Sweeney is a major player in the House, and a hard right GOP lieutenant.  Taking him out would be an incredible acheivement.

I don't know, after seeing Research 2000, a polling firm with a solid record and reputation, report that Farrell was leading Shays by 4, should I really be bouyed to see her trailing by 10?

Also, while a 2 point lead for John Hall over Sue Kelly in NY-19 is surely plausible (much more so than the 9-point lead previously reported), I just can't believe Gillibrand is leading by 11 in NY-20. I had hoped the new poll on that district would be tighter than the 13 point lead they reported last time so as to give all their polls more credibility. Even democratic internal polls show Gillibrand with only a 2-3 point lead.

Sheesh. That's the frustration for me. We can't find a lead in any of the major races, despite good candidates and opponents who can't decide which crime to commit or rule to break.

I thought Hafen would cut it to perhaps 4 points.

The problem is the statewide dynamic, Las Vegas as one variable and the rest of the state the other variable. They oppose each other in partisanship, but you get the feeling the numbers do get stuck.

177 "safe" seats... but who knows what all seats they're not polling that they're counting as safe?  Majority Watch isn't even bothering to poll places like ID-01, NE-03, WY-AL, CO-05, NV-02, AZ-05, and a few others that I would hardly call "safe" for the GOP.

   Is this the last we will be seeing of new Majority watch polls?  

OH-01: Chabot (R) 48%--46% Cranley (D) (no trendline)

That is actually Cranley (D) 48% and Chabot(R) 46%.

This is a highly watched race right now because OH-01 is one of the highly gerrymandered districts that was made to protect Chabot. Hell - just come to my house. I am in OH-08. Walk across the street and I am in OH-01. Walk north on my street about 6 house, back in OH-01. Go to the start of my street (to the south) - back in OH-01. I even know someone down the street whose house was blocked out just to be in OH-01 because they are Republicans. It is a nightmare.

With all the said - it is great that Cranley is ahead right now (even if it is in the MOE).

This is 2 consecutive polls from Majority Watch that show GOP incumbents Charles Taylor (NC-11) and Robin Hayes (NC-8) at 44%, trailing Heath Shuler and Larry Kissell.

After 2 weeks of nastiness, direct mail lies, and false TV ads, these 2 GOP millionaires (the #3 and #6 richest members of the House) have nothing to show for it.  They were at 44% percent 2 weeks ago, and they still are. They have peaked.

Keep blowing your fortunes, boys.  It's not gonna help.  NC voters have your number this year.  44.

Conventional wisdom can be wrong, but I live next to this district and Seals being up flies in the face of everything I know about that race.  Just yesterday, Chicago Tribune had an article about Seals' frustration that Kirk wouldn't debate him.  This is the talk of someone who feels he's losing, not of someone winning.

Great if true, but is this poll true?  I fear it is an outlier, and if so, it makes me want to distrust some more of the good news.

Looking at the numbers here, there are some encouraging signs, but a lot that troubles me too.

On the plus, Democratic candidates are leading in 28 races now, compared to 18 using the previous poll.

BUT, Democrats have lost leads in 4 races, and the Republican candidate is closing in on 7 more.

Of the 11 tightest races, in 8 the Democratic candidate's lead is 2 points or less, compared to only 3 where the Republican lead is that small (and in each of those three--AZ-1, MN-6, and IA-2--the Republican candidate has overtaken the previous lead by the Democrat).

And overall, 15 Democratic candidate's numbers are lower than they were in the previous poll.

So yeah, some good news, but this is no time to get complacent and overconfident. GOTV!!!