Governor Forecast 2006: Races Beginning to Break

by Jonathan Singer, Tue Oct 03, 2006 at 04:02:15 PM EDT

Five weeks from election day, a number of gubernatorial races appear to be breaking -- although not all in the same direction.

Given the stregth of Democrats in polling out of Colorado and Arkansas, those two states now join Ohio and Massachusetts as "likely" pick-ups for the Democrats. The rating of five GOP governorships as "likely Democratic" points to a big swing among the nation's executives. At the same time, California and Florida -- which for at least a time appeared to be competitive, though leaning Republican -- are now becoming less competitive, moving into the "likely Republican" category. Interestingly, SurveyUSA polling from South Carolina indicates the possibility of a competitive race, though I'll wait for other polling before I jump on that race just yet.

There isn't as much polling from Democratic-held governor races as there has been from GOP seats, but there is some movement in at least one race. Bowing to the polling, I have begrudgingly moved Oregon to the "toss-up" category, though I still believe Ted Kulongoski will be able to pull off a victory.

For more on the key governor races this year, check out the full MyDD Governor Forecast 2006.

Tags: election forecasts, Governor 2005-6 (all tags)

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Re: Governor Forecast 2006: Races Beginning to Bre

Financial reports are coming out today in Oregon races, and it looks like (D) incumbent Kulongoski is going to be far behind, unfortunately.

There's no limit to campaign contributions here in Oregon, so there are many very wealthy, very conservative Republicans giving upwards of $100,000, even $500,000, to his opponent Ron Saxton, who is trying to hammer his Kulongoski with negative ads.

Hopefully an anti-Republican sentiment will win the day for Ted, but things look iffy here, with a new poll today putting it at a dead heat, 39-37.

by verasoie 2006-10-03 04:35PM | 0 recs

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Two debates last night

Buried under the blogosphere's and MSM's deluge of Foley news, Dems won two debates last night in toss up states Michigan and Iowa.

coverage here

by demondeac 2006-10-03 04:46PM | 0 recs

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Re: Two debates last night

I saw the Granholm-DeVos debate on CSPAN last night, and Tricky Dick was completely out of his league. You could tell Jen knows how to run a government and DeVos doesn't really know how to do much of anything.

I was disappointed in Brown's performance against DeWine. In that debate (unlike Granholm-DeVos) you could tell two experienced politicians were going at it, and it would be hard for one to gain an edge on the other. The Brown-DeWine debate was clearly a stalemate.

by dpinzow 2006-10-03 08:43PM | 0 recs

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Bill Richardson takes money from big pharma...

...and from big health insurance companies.

It's nice to see that the blogosphere is getting our elected officials' attention,
It's not nice that bloggers are taking money from people who have been totally co-opted by special interests.

(I'll still be reading the gov forecast religiously)

by mermzilla 2006-10-03 05:19PM | 0 recs

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Re: Governor Forecast 2006

I always prioritize the gov races. This year, while the bottom line looks excellent, the frustration is we're in hang-on-baby mode in so many races, and nothing where an underdog Democrat is surging to a surprise victory. Compare that to last year with only two races yet Kaine came from behind for a great win.

I had hopes for Florida and Nevada but now they look much less likely. I guess we can make noise about South Carolina, but I'd be shocked if that turned, and there have been some good polls in Minnesota and Rhode Island, yet also mixed with some terrible poll margins. California and Alaska seemed promising several months ago but now appear to be gone.

Seems like the bottom line will be determined by whether we hang onto races we presume we will win -- Wisconsin, Iowa, Michigan, Oregon, Maryland, Maine.

by jagakid 2006-10-03 05:34PM | 0 recs

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Re: Governor Forecast 2006

Jaga, if you're looking for an underdog Democrat surging to a surprise victory, don't give up on NV so quickly.

That series of mid-Sept polls showing Gibbons ahead by 8 - 12 points were taken following 3 weeks of more or less uncontested heavy advertising on taxes and immigration that weakened her support among Democrats, but he's now been dark in southern NV for 9 days and most recent polling (ZogbyI so all usual disclaimers) had it back to a 2-point margin, with 85% of Dem voters supporting Titus.

With 3 live debates in the next two weeks, plus Titus' own advertising campaign starting to roll out at just the moment when being a member of the House majority is becoming toxic, and the long-awaited labor-backed advertising and field effort starting to unfurl (Culinary will endorse tomorrow) that there's ample opportunity for Titus to close the gap.

And late polls in NV this year are very likely going to overweight republican support, as they did in 04, by underestimating Dem turnout. I know that sounds pie in the sky but there is so much low hanging fruit in the form of Dem voters in CD2 who haven't been organized or mobilized (or even had a candidate to support on a state or Congressional ballot) since at least 1994.

by desmoulins 2006-10-03 11:53PM | 0 recs

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Typo I think....

You say "I'm not quite ready to rank this race "likely Democrat" -- but I'm getting close. " In the Colorado description - even though you have it ranked as Likely Democrat. I think Likely Democrat is jsut about right for that one, which is great (Denver 2008 anyone?).

Also, might as I'd like to belive that Rhode Island really is a toss-up, It looks like two of the last three polls there had the Republican up by double digits. Is there something here not being captured by the polling?

by dantheman 2006-10-03 05:47PM | 0 recs

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Jim Davis did well last time

Look what I found - Jack Davis got 44% last time (2004) as first time, self-financed Dem challenger to PP (Predator Protector) Rep. Tom Reynolds R-NY.

"In the 2004 election, Jack ran for Congress in New York State's 26th District. His number one issue was Save Jobs, Farms and Industries. He spent $1.2 million of his own money in the campaign. Starting his campaign with virtually no name recognition, Jack garnered an impressive 44% of the vote against a well-known incumbent."

Wow. If not this time then next time, but this time is ripe for a take down of Reynolds. Jack Davis' website is a mess and he clearly needs help with the campaign from the young & energetic (Netroots). Is it too late? There's a lot to work with! He could be a winner with a hot team; he seems like a great populist guy. Good interview with Lou Dobbs who likes him. His issue - losing jobs & the R's wrecking the economy. Businessman. Oh magic wand!! Where's Hillary when you need her in New York state for populist fair traders - Oops. That's not Hil.

by mrobinsong 2006-10-03 05:56PM | 0 recs

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Re: Governor Forecast 2006: Races Beginning to Bre

I love Richardson, but his staff needs to attend "Catchphrases 101". I know it's an old gripe, but that graphic is about as vanilla as it gets.

by Matt in VA 2006-10-03 10:01PM | 0 recs

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Re: your blog

What is wrong with the formatting? On the fornt page, your post doesn't even appear. I had to go to comments to access the diary.

by dkmich 2006-10-04 02:09AM | 0 recs

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Re: Governor Forecast 2006

One thing to remember is that Foleygate is going to effect the GOP up and down the ticket. If conservatives stay home, that will hurt the GOP's gubenatorial candidates too. I think Foley could particularly hurt the Rs in Fla, which I assume leads the nation in statewide coverage, and South Carolina, where many christian right wing activists reside.

by Andy Katz 2006-10-04 05:00AM | 0 recs

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Re: Governor Forecast 2006: Races Beginning to Bre

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by estebban 2006-12-22 04:27AM | 0 recs