This is amazing. You've got to cross-post at DailyKos.

Chris -

Why not turn the thing into a PDF - that'll get the colors back in.  It would be a much more damning report than it appears if we saw the true GOP perception of the hemorraghing (SP?).  

If you can't turn it into a PDF, email me the spreadsheet.  I can do it for you.

Hmmm.  The list and assessments look a bit dated- maybe accurate for the situation around October 10.

The present status of things is definitely worse for them.  Menendez and Whitehouse are going to win, the House races rated "2" are dicier now than that and most of the "3" rated ones are clearly leaning D at present (e.g. Wilson/Madrid).

Interesting is that they dropped the Nevada and Arizona Senate races off their radar entirely.  Not a wise move, even if the mass of pundit and Beltway opinion and polling said it was reasonable to assume them safe for their side at the time.  

Umm, you may want to trim the HTML, and quick -  the name of a person appears in the page source, and hopefully it's not the leaker!  Looks like a Microsoft Word document "saved as" HTML, and it kept the header information.

It's interesting they think OH-15 (Pryce (R) vs Kilroy (D)) leans Democrat.  We haven't seen alot of polling in that district, but obviously the GOP has done some polling they're not releasing.

wow - amazing intel

They gave Burns a 5, but Santorum a 4?  Are they delusional?  Santorum has been our best pick up chance the whole way through.  He was the first incumbent confirmed in serious trouble.  

They also only put Negron in FL-16 at 4.  With Foley on the ballot.  Riiiight.

Notice there are 14 House races that they rate as likely to lose.  There were another 15 rated Democrat.  If we end up with all 14 of our leans and say 7 (about half) of the toss ups that puts us at 21 Seats.  Now factor in if there was a wave and we picked up all our leans and 10 toss ups with 2 or 3 lean republican seats.  We could be looking at a nice little majority in November even by internal Republican numbers.

Bowers is God. Whoever leaked this at the NRCC or NRSC must be kicking themselves all over the place right now.

and I think it's a well-intended effort. And, I really do wish we could all just focus on the election coming up in 2 weeks, like you are trying to do.

But did you really think David Wade was talking about (and insulting) you when he talked about "anonymous websites"? Or was he counting you in the "real netroots"?

I thought the latter. If you did too, could you please have a discussion with Markos?  He seems to be speaking for you, and if he's not, you might want to clear that up.

Please see his front page post about you feeling insulted. I'd be curious to know if you agree with his take on it. If you don't, I hope you will say so, loudly. If you do...well, I've left plenty of comments on that diary already (along with many other people who aren't even Kerry supporters), so I don't need to say any more.

Uh.  Just...wow.  Everyone work your asses off!

Focusing on CA for a minute.  It is interesting to see that they think CA-11 is less vulnerable than CA-04.  It really should be the other way around.  They have put way more cash into CA-11 than they have into Doolittle's district.  They do have a crappy cartoon themed mailer that was getting ripped in the conservative blogs today.

CA-50 is not on the list at all, though now polling seems to indicate that it is in play.

Very interesting.  I wonder who is going to get shit-canned for this leak :)

Vic Wulsin and Jack Davis really need money.

Tester does too. I'm not sold on Tester being a sure thing yet. Tester is only ahead of Burns by 3 in the latest Mason-Dixon poll.

I think Santorum is cooked. DeWine is close to being cooked as well. But Santorum's situation is hopeless.

Thanks for continuing to kick ass, Chris. When this is all over, you'd better take a couple of weeks off.

What does a 5 mean?  4? 3?

What is the significance of each column?

It took me 3 hours to figure out how to cut and paste for a google bomb, so feel sorry for me.

I'm also trying to figure out how to set my clock on my VCR.

Wooo!  Thanks a lot for this, Chris!  You rock in many ways.  

I was especially excited to see that Republican internals have Wulsin/Schmidt -- the race I'll be flying out to help for the first week of November -- is within the margin of error!  

This is why I come here and am a mydd junkie.  Way to go!

I am sure heads are exploding as I type this.  I am LAUGHING as I type.

This is fun to look at, but I'd be careful about putting too much faith in it. At least not without more info about from whence it comes. Not that I think this is the case, but I wouldn't put it past them to leak on purpose for misdirection. A lot of the info (especially the money, I think) seems dated. The polls, according to the legend, are all public nonpartisan, which means the really valuable info--their internals--isn't here.
Chaffee is a lot more endangered than Talent. Reynolds has himself as highly endangered, while that may be true, it strikes me as something an egotist (something I tend to think of most republicans) would leak, with the thought "maybe I can get them to waste their money targetting me."

I don't know, but I'd read with some skepticism

Over the weekend I was telling my husband my prediction: we pick up 21 seats in the House and 4 in the Senate.

I hate to agree with Republicans about anything...

UPDATE ON NC-11

Greetings from the beautiful mountains and trails of Asheville NC. Things have been heating up on the SHULER vs. TAYLOR front.
Charles Taylor is a long-time congressman, multimillionaire, bank and large-scale landowner, apologist for GWB, and is strongly anti-conservation). Remember `Mr. Potter' from the Christmas movie? You get the idea.

Heath Schuler has beat back some mud and lies, most recently in a well-funded direct mail blitz from Taylor. And now the good news:

Heath has received endorsements from the Hendersonville paper, AFL-CIO, NEA, League of Coservation Voters, etc. Recent polls show that his message is getting out and that the voters may be ready for a BIG change. For comparison, two polls from Constituent Dynamics-

10/12 Shuler (D) 51% Taylor (R) 43%
9/6 50% 47%

We're running out of lawn signs!

In particular, I like that Hostettler is apparently "not listening"

So, now they notice!

They think Lewis is vulnerable? We dont even show that race as top tier. Apparantly the Repubs have some concern about him though. Time to make that one yet another Republican self-fulfilling  prophecy of doom. Go Weaver! The playing field continues to expand even in these last two weeks.

(Also love their comment about Count Chocula on the right "not listening"!) Wonder who he pissed off at the NRCC?

Actually, I didn't find much new in this
listing at all.

Cynic that I am, I've long assumed that
the Famous Fearful Forecasters -- you know
their names, and I'm not talking about Chris,
the other guys -- they get their rankings
the easy way: They talk to somebody at the
RCCC and somebody at the DCCC, gather up
the fundraising totals and CoH figures, take
a hunch on which way the wind is blowing,
assign a figure to every race, subtract
5 points from all Democratic candidates
because they're afraid to offend The Powers,
and announce their rankings. I mean, to do it
otherwise would mean a lot of real reporting,
and the travel budget does not allow it.

So these rankings follow the rankings from
the various Famous Fearful Forecasters.
What a f--ing surprise. Not.

The NRCC is continuing heavy play of the same basic ad on radio and TV in the IN-09 race. It's an identity message that says Baron Hill is too negative and only Sodrel will protect us against gay marriage, flag desecration, taxes and liberals.

They literally say that Sodrel is "one of us" and that he shares our values.

They don't mention Iraq or the economy. Even though the money looks relatively even on the chart, to this point I've come across Sodrel ads much more often than anything from pro Baron Hill groups.

Given this crowd's track record, I would say we need to assume that this was leaked on purpose.  The Republican strategists know that MyDD is more influential/credible among insider-ish types.  I would be very careful to make sure you're not being "Rathered".  I'm not saying that this is necessarily the case, but it can't hurt you to assume so.  It would, after all, be a cheap way to disseminate some disinformation among relatively influential Democrats.

In my opinion, even if the numbers check out, it's kind of a waste this late in the game to spend any time analyzing it.

The Trib has a new poll out for the 4th from the Susquehanna Poll. It shows Hart 46, Altmire 42, 10%
undecided.

No direct link to the poll, but here's the Trib story:

http://www.pittsburghlive.com/x/pittsbur ghtrib/news/cityregion/s_476533.html

I posted this comment on another thread. What jumps out at me is the amount of money they still have. Talent has 7 million. Is he not going to spend it? Can you spend that much in two weeks (or even four, if this doc is a little old)?

Why are they hanging on to so much money in so many places? Golden parachutes?

Maybe they're saving it for a rainy day.  Or a legal defense fund!