Taking a look through the independent expenditure forms filed with the FEC today, a couple of investments by the National Republican Congressional Committee stand out: Over $135,000 for ads and phone banks opposing Larry Grant, the Democratic candidate for Idaho's 1st district, which is an open seat; and more than $70,000 for ads opposing Tom Hayhurst, the Democratic nominee in the heretofore overlooked Indiana 3. The latter, in particular, which puts the NRCC's total commitment to a district George W. Bush carried with 68 percent of the vote in 2004 at just shy of $100,000, provides yet more proof that there are a number of Republican incumbents with soft enough support even in GOP-heavy districts that they are in danger of losing.

Yet even as House Republicans show signs of real weakness by dumping tens of thousands of dollars into the fourth most competitive GOP-held House seat in Indiana (however flush with cash the NRCC is, they're not going to spend that type of money if they don't think they need to), the DCCC is still shying away from expanding the field races it is contesting. Again, looking through the independent expenditure reports, only a few expenditures -- a $125,000 ad buy targeting GOP Congresswoman Cathy McMorris in Eastern Washington and $135,000 targeting Melissa Hart in Pennsylvania 4, for instance -- stand out as being ambitious, with the bulk of the committee's investments going to districts that have already been on the radar for weeks or months.

Republicans clearly understand that modest ad buys in districts that haven't seen a lot of -- or any -- national money to this point can make a large impact in campaigns, perhaps making the difference between a narrow miss and a surprise upset. Will the DCCC learn this same lesson? Time is quickly running out...

Update [2006-10-25 0:11:22 by Jonathan Singer]: To clarify, the DCCC is making new investments in a number of races, including California 11 (Pombo), Pennsylvania 4 (Hart) and Minnesota 1 (Gutknecht). They should be applauded for this. But given the fact that the NRCC is shifting funds to districts President Bush carried by more than a 2 to 1 margin just two years ago, it still puzzles me why the DCCC is not following suit by going into quirky races, perhaps ones in which the Republicans are on their heels. Or perhaps, even better yet, the DCCC could blaze some trails by going into districts where the NRCC hasn't yet dropped a dime, putting Republicans even more on the defensive.