I love the over pessmism of the left, and the over optimism of the right. between the two, there maybe a center called realism.

Given the margin of error in these polls and the ~7% undecided in each race it looks like it is the ground game that is going to decide.  Motivated voters + GOTV = the winner.  I like our chances but the Republicans are going to dump big cach and big effort into the last 3 days - we've go to outwork them to split that undecided 60/40 or better for us and to turn out our voters.  Most all the polls show this same thing.  We CAN win but we need to work harder and smarter in the next two weeks.

bruh21: there isn't a center in America past 1998 or so. It's all left or right. Either you support flag-burning and blastocyst murder or you believe in God and His Instrument in the White House. Better figure out where you stand.

Either we're going to win big (in the house, at minimum) because 70% of the country is actually fed up, or they're going to steal the election for the third time in a row. There isn't a 'centrist' outcome to this election.

Jerome:

With a 4-5% MOE, that means that only Brown is clearly ahead, the rest are going to likely all go Democratic or all go Republican, by recent historical wave standards in the US Senate. Whether that recent formula applies to '06 is a good question.

Context for the ignorant, please? Does this mean that the Ohio Senate race has historically reliably indicated the outcome of wave elections?

to show Webb ahead of Allen?

http://www.nytimes.com/2006/10/25/opinio n/25wed1.html?_r=1&oref=slogin

Here's some late night good news for y'all.  The NY Times just endorsed Democratic challenger Diane Farrell in her CT House race against long time incumbent Republican Christopher Shays.

Tennesse is begining to become disturbing.  How in Hell can the RNC get away with thier racist campaign ads and slander on Ford? Damn them....

I find it hard to imagine us winning VA but not MO.

It's Kyl 47-41, down from an 11 point lead earlier this month.

http://www.azpbs.org/horizon/poll/2006/1 0-24-06.htm

Most polls in MO seem to have shown McCaskill ahead, and she's a stronger candidate than Webb.  VA is more of a Republican state, and as noted above, only 1 outlying Zogby poll has shown Webb ahead until now.  (A Mason-Dixon poll last month found the race tied at 43%, but this month they show Allen ahead again)  VA hasn't sent a Democrat to the Senate since 1994.  The threshold for a Democrat winning is a little higher in VA than MO.  I'm pretty familiar with both states too; McCaskill losing and Webb winning just seems backwards to me.  Of the close races, I've thought all along that VA would be the hardest/last one we'd win.

Why should these Bloomberg polls have more credibility than Mason-Dixon polls released earlier or Rasmussen?? Seems like these polls all contradict each other and none of them by themselves are to be trusted. That's why the projective statement by Jerome seems so absurd. I am more interested to see the trends over time as they are shown in the averages on Pollster.com

Jerome's point on close Senate races breaking one way is supported by recent results.  In 2004, for example, all the tossups but one on Charlie Cook's list broke Republican. Roughly 14 times as many House seats are at stake each year compared to Senate seats yet Senate swings particularly in the recent and semi-recent past have been nearly as large as House swings in some years.

In 1986, Democrats picked up just 5 House seats but 8 Senate seats.  In 2000, 1 House and 4 senate seats were gained.  Of course, in a wave election the patterns are less extreme.  In 1974, Democrats picked up 49 House seats and 5 Senate seats; in 1994 Republicans gained 54 House and 5 Senate seats.  In 1966, Republicans gained 48 House and 3 Senate seats.  Then there was 1958, when somehow Democrats gained 49 House and 16 Senate seats (4 new seats were added for Alaska and Hawaii with Democrats winning 3 that year).

Just as an aside, Corker and the Republicans are running indirectly against the Ford family dominance of Memphis politics.  Harold Ford missed his "Sister Souljah moment" and did the wrong thing when he backed "independent" family member Jake Ford for his House seat instead of the winner of the Democratic primary, Steve Cohen.  The baggage of the Ford family is pretty well known.  Bob Corker doesn't need to make this a family attack and Harold Ford's indignant toe-to-toe probably just tends to bring up his family's problems.

Pages 7 and 8 of the link ask the question, "Do you think of your vote in the Senate race as a vote for or against George W. Bush and his policies?".  I have been curious as to how much of a drag the Shrubster has been across the country - this answers that question a little bit.

In Virginia, 44% say their vote is a direct repudiation.