Dems will lose no House seats; Republicans looking for new message

by Jerome Armstrong, Tue Oct 24, 2006 at 02:41:20 AM EDT

I was looking through recent House rankings, and it's become obvious that the Democrats will not lose a single congressional seat-- not even an open seat (when was the last time that happened?). Chuck Todd ranked Dems Melissa Bean at #40 and Leonard Boswell at #42, but considering polls show them up by 18% and 20% this week, that ranking is being awful generous to Republicans.

As Larry Craig would say, "The new numbers are just devastating" for Republicans, just look at the recent Cook PDF (10/19-22):

                RV's        R     I     D          MLV     LV  
Republicans     37          86    30    3          35      34
Democrats       49           8    49   92          57      56      

Unlike recent elections, Democrats have a stronger base turnout-projection two weeks out; Independents, which broke nearly 50-50 in the three previous elections this decade have been in the Democrats camp since last summer; and most different, Republican voters are not entuhusiastic and Democratic voters by far the most likely voters.

It's not over though, because a lot of low-info voters are going to tune in very soon, with November arriving. Republicans are in a hole, and they realize it-- especially concerning Iraq. The Republicans thought they'd framed the election as "stay the course" vs "cut and run", and instead, Democrats have made the debate about "stay the course" vs "change of direction".

Bush is abandoning the term, with front-page stories on the NYT's and WaPost, and expect Republicans everywhere (even Joe Lieberman) to alter their talking points to 'change' and 'adapt' when talking about Iraq in these last two weeks. Republicans are now in the search for a new catch-phrase to label their failed Iraq strategy... "adapt to win" or "stay in Iraq to win in Iraq" or hell, "a new direction".

They've got to recover among Independents that have voted Republican in the last three elections. They'll be no change of policy and they will deny that they were ever staying the course; their only hope is to muddy the water among Independents by tweaking their message to speak about change.

Tags: 2006 election (all tags)

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16 Comments

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Re: Dems will lose no House seats; Republicans loo

You need to reverse the labelling on the rows in the table (I know, it's been so many years with the GOP in the lead it's an easy mistake to make). Other than that, it's all GREAT news!

Radarlady

by radarlady 2006-10-24 03:23AM | 0 recs
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Re: Dems will lose no House seats; Republicans loo

yea, good point.

by Jerome Armstrong 2006-10-24 03:55AM | 0 recs
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Well...

...you could say you are doing it like Kos does individual races and put the incumbent party on top.

by Geotpf 2006-10-24 08:57AM | 0 recs
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Re: Dems will lose no House seats; Republicans loo

it's become obvious that the Democrats will not lose a single congressional seat-- not even an open seat (when was the last time that happened?)

Seriously. Not a single seat in the House or the Senate? I'd love to know the answer to that question.

If it's happened, it couldn't have been more than a few times ...

by BriVT 2006-10-24 04:20AM | 0 recs
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The numbers among independents are breathtaking

It's been obvious in the crosstabs all year, that we're benefitting from a restored gender gap and surreal allegiance from independents. In fact, in the races we're not faring very well you can virtually ignore every other category and look there. Inevitably in those races the womens vote and independents are much closer to even. Webb is being held back in Virginia since he's running even with Allen among the womens vote.

This is the same formula that worked last year in the gov victories in Virginia and New Jersey. Those two races, post-Katrina and with Bush's appproval rating in the same range as now, are by far the most relevant examples of the type of electorate we will see on November 7.

Note this link I saved from January, a breakdown of Kaine's victory in Virginia with the headline, "New Poll Reveals Women and Independents Key to Kaine Victory"

http://www.virginia.edu/surveys/press/CF PPoll%20Release%201-13-06.htm

You will see one obvious thing about that study, the numbers are inflated toward Kaine. It was not an exit poll, but a survey conducted over the three weeks following the election. If you relied on those numbers, Kaine would have prevailed by much greater than his 52-46 margin. It's further evidence than when people know the result they love to identify with the winner.

Mark Lindeman did an excellent study of that tendency which can be found among many impressive articles on his transitional home page, under the title, ""Too Many Bush Voters? False Vote Recall and the 2004 Exit Poll"

http://inside.bard.edu/~lindeman/

by Gary Kilbride 2006-10-24 04:24AM | 0 recs
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Re: The numbers among independents are breathtakin

Webb has been hurt by the effectiveness of Allen's ads portraying Webb as sexist.

by Jerome Armstrong 2006-10-24 04:51AM | 0 recs
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Re: Republicans looking for new message

Isn't it possible that scrapping the "stay the course" line will only accelerate the loss of enthusiasm among the right's base? Won't it just affirm to them that their leaders have sold them out, and don't deserve their support?

by bruorton 2006-10-24 04:32AM | 0 recs
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Re: Republicans looking for new message

I imagine its a two-pronged effort, with this addressing the indys and some other tactic addressing the base. I don't think their base is depressed over Iraq, but of not getting their social conservative issues passed into law. They got two judges, but no laws.

by Jerome Armstrong 2006-10-24 04:50AM | 0 recs
My-meetup1
Re: accelerate the loss of enthusiasm

It certainly will. In fact I think this is already back firing on them. I'm sure many of the "Stay the course" true Bushbag believers are  totally dismayed and disallusioned.

by eddieb 2006-10-24 04:53AM | 0 recs
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But what about the voting machines?

But the voting machines? Is anyone going to be watching the damn machines?!

by lemonyellow 2006-10-24 04:45AM | 0 recs
My-meetup1
Re: Dems will lose no House seats; Republicans loo

I liked the NY Post where they use something to the effect "That bush is Cutting and Running from "Stay the course""

by eddieb 2006-10-24 04:49AM | 0 recs
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Pete King's almost outa here!

I can't believe my eyes, we are so close to knocking off the wacko Pete King.  Can anyone from that area comment from the ground?  Is the latest poll giving King a 2 pt. lead accurate?  The supposed Irish/American champion in the House who sold out other immigrants must go down!

by kentuckydave 2006-10-24 05:44AM | 0 recs
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Slightly off topic

Did anyone notice that Real Clear Politics has the newest ABC/WaPo poll putting Bush at 40% approval?  Am I missing something? The latest WaPo poll has Bush at 37.  

Is RCP just being shirty?

by Lassallean 2006-10-24 05:53AM | 0 recs
My-meetup1
Re: Slightly off topic

Yes

by eddieb 2006-10-24 06:35AM | 0 recs
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Re: Dems will lose no House seats; Republicans loo

"We're adapting to win!"

"Well if you've been changing policies all along, then none of your ideas have worked. None. It's time to for someone with a fresh perspective a chance!"

by MNPundit 2006-10-24 06:46AM | 0 recs
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Re: Dems will lose no House seats

Actually, we might lose one. Julia Carson in IN-06 is behind her Republican opponent in the polls right now. Looks like Republicans might have their first black republican in COngress since JC Watts.

by liberalminded 2006-10-24 07:34AM | 0 recs

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