New House Polls Continue To Show Democratic Gains

Some new internal polls from the DCCC:
  • CT-04: Farrell (D) 44%--41% Shays (R)
  • CT-05: C. Murphy (D) 45%--40% Johnson (R)
  • NY-20: Sweeney (R) 42%--41% Gillibrand
  • PA-08: P. Murphy (D) 44%--40% Fitzpatrick (R)
It is important to take partisan polls with a grain of salt, since campaigns and parties only seem to release polls when the polls look good for the campaign or party that conducted the poll. However, these numbers do not look at that strange, considering some other polls that have come out today. For example, look at these two independent polls:
  • IN-08: Ellsworth (D) 55%--32% Hostettler (R) (Indiana St.)
  • MN-02: Kline (R) 50%--42% Rowley (D) (Survey USA)
Both polls are nearly double-digit improvements for the Democrat in the campaign compared polls from last month. Heck, if we are within eight points in M-02, I am starting to wonder if any Republican seats, apart from the ten where we did not field challengers, are safe. There will be three more Survey USA polls later today, all showing similar movement for Democrats:Later today, SurveyUSA will release polls in four congressional districts which found "significant movement away from the Republican incumbent and towards the Democratic challenger, with the Republican's lead decreasing by between 9 and 13 points. Furthermore, all four districts show a shift in the party distribution of likely voters, with the Republican-Democrat difference changing towards Democrats by between 4 and 11 points." Democrats in individual districts are starting to see the kind of boost that Democrats have received nationally over the last three weeks. A wave certainly seems to be building, but twenty-two days can be an eternity and we can't let up anywhere.

Update: New Survey USA polls:
  • NM-01: Madrid (D) 53%--45% Wilson (R)
  • CA-50: Bilbray (R) 49%--46% Busby (D)
  • AZ-05: Hayworth (R) 48%--45% Mitchell (D)
NM-01 is clearly moving Madrid's way. And how great would it be to win CA-50 after all? Busby actually has more money than Bilbray right now, too.

Tags: House 2006, polls (all tags)

Comments

16 Comments

Re: New House Polls Continue To Show Democratic Ga

Two polls in the last week show Chris Carney up 14 and 15 points over Don Sherwood, see release here:

http://www.carneyforcongress.com/2006/10 16/carney-out-raises-sherwood-holds-14- 15-lead-in-recent-polls

(Oh and we out-raised Sherwood as well)

by DrewEM 2006-10-16 03:45PM | 0 recs
Connecticut
Chris Bowers: "Come on Connecticut!"
Welcome home Connecticut!  Any other wishes?
You were even right about Gillibrand.  
    I think Shays took himself out with his recent stupid comments.  And I'm surprised/impressed that the polls now show a complete Murphy sweep!  Go Chris, Patrick, and Lois!  
by cilerder86 2006-10-16 04:02PM | 0 recs
Re: Connecticut

Shays has an $800,000 cash on hand edge over Farrell though.  She's got to make a lot of that up, or the DCCC for her.

by Sandwich Repairman 2006-10-16 04:13PM | 0 recs
Yes.

   But have you seen how much Shays has spent in the last quarter (1 million +)?  I agree that Farrell needs more money, and I think the DCCC will come through on her behalf (there have been promises).  I'm not saying these races are over.  But you have to wonder how much more an incumbent can move the numbers if he has lost support in a period in which he has bombarded the market with ads.

by cilerder86 2006-10-16 04:19PM | 0 recs
Re: Yes.

Well, yes, that's a good point.  Like the fact that Sherrod Brown keeps beating DeWine in polls despite being outspent 2-1.  Sometimes, it's just lipstick on a pig...

by Sandwich Repairman 2006-10-16 05:49PM | 0 recs
Re: Connecticut

 I was going to ask about the third Conn. race.  On  the "what's not said, says a lot" theory, I was going to question how we are doing.  I took it for granted that all three districts were polled.

 This post seems to say that Bowers is doing good in the third race.  GOOD

by ocdemocrat 2006-10-16 04:59PM | 0 recs
Re: Polling Pornography

I admit it:  I can't stop looking and enjoying it.

Off to phone bank in an hour....

by InigoMontoya 2006-10-16 04:06PM | 0 recs
Democratic Gains

anyone know when the new Majority Watch poll is coming out?

by thorgrim 2006-10-16 04:13PM | 0 recs
Re: Democratic Gains

If the Majority Watch polls are those done by Constituent Dynamics, I'd advise being very very wary of them.   The last batch looked crazy in both directions from race to race.  

by InigoMontoya 2006-10-16 04:16PM | 0 recs
1st SUSA poll is out

Survey USA has released the first of their polls, for NM-01:

Madrid (D) 53%
Wilson (R) 45%

Definite good news there!

by CA Pol Junkie 2006-10-16 04:14PM | 0 recs
Re: 1st SUSA poll is out

The last Survey USA was 51-45 in favor of Wilson, so this is a nice improvement as advertised.

by CA Pol Junkie 2006-10-16 04:17PM | 0 recs
Re: New House Polls Continue To Show Democratic Ga

We lost CA-50 44-49%. the new poll is 46-49. I'm not going to get excited... a lot to be encouraged about here, though.

by AaronE 2006-10-16 05:30PM | 0 recs
Re: New House Polls Continue To Show Democratic Ga

What were the polls like before the special election in CA-50?

by ab initio 2006-10-16 08:33PM | 0 recs
Democratic Gains

Believe those Gillibrand numbers. We are in the process of putting a serious hurting on Sweeney here.

by Andrew C White 2006-10-16 05:38PM | 0 recs
Re: Democratic Gains

I don't buy those numbers for a second.  I grew up in Glens Falls (live in Illinois now) and I remember the bad old days of Jerry Solomon.  One false move, and any chance of a win goes up in smoke.  The voters will lurch hard right at a moment's notice.  So you need to keep after it--don't give Sweeney an inch.

God.  Watching Sweeney go down would be sweet.  Now I am beginning to believe that it is possible (if only just beginning to believe).

by GF in Exile 2006-10-17 07:44AM | 0 recs
Busby's race

Be careful of those cash on hand numbers, the NRCC is spending a lot of money here.  I get a NRCC hit piece on Busby almost every day. I was wondering why they were spending so much money. I guess now I know.

by surfk9 2006-10-16 06:49PM | 0 recs

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