If you are downgrading CO-07 because of the Constituent Dynamics poll, you should reconsider.  That poll had a partisan breakdown of 40R/33D/27I that bears no relationship to the actual breakdown of the district.  Note that the earlier poll from this outfit came out with basically the same dead heat result.

Also, it came out this week that while he was head of the Colorado Commission on Higher Education, Rick O'Donnell accepted a trip to Panama paid for by the CBS Network after he caused CCHE to buy a large block of advertising on KCNC Channel 4 in Denver.  This news strikes at the heart of O'Donnell's claim that he is an outsider who will fight for ethics in Washington.

Finally, there is some evidence that O'Donnell's campaign is in disarray.  Yesterday, without explanation, he failed to show up at a union sponsored candidate forum after having been the first invited candidate to accept the invitation to show up.

We've got a little more than 3 weeks to go, a new lead in the polls, Sen Edwards rallying for Larry Kissell tonight, a debate set to air showing Larry kicking some serious Hayes butt, the state Dem party chair stumping in the district all next week and a growing ground game....Toss Up for sure, soon to be Likely Dem!

Oh, and let's not forget Larry's spectacular response to the republican attack ad.  Go Larry!

One thing you don't mention in the comments on NY-19 is that Sue Kelly took over Kolbe's job as head of the page committee, just after Kolbe claims to have been approached by a former page re inappropriate email from Foley. It would have been utterly irresponsible for Kolbe not to have mentioned the Foley matter when he handed the reins over to Kelly, yet she claims complete ignorance in the matter.

The DCCC earlier this week, on its web site, identified Braley as leading 48-37 in Braley's own internal poll.

BTW, Braley's polling outfit, who conducted that poll, is the firm of Mark Blumenthal, known to we political junkies as the celebrated "Mystery Pollster."

Drake vs Kellam? Dead heat according to the latest polls. And man, am I ticked I can't vote in that one... (it was gerrymandered in 2000 I think--my neighborhood is in a safely blue area whose rep is running unopposed)

I knew things were looking up when the Columbus Dispatch called Ohio a purple state in an endorsement of Strickland for Governor.  Never thought I'd see the Dispatch endorse a Dem for Gov (or Prez) again.  Great news!

The San Diego Democratic Party and the Francine Busby campaign are reporting that Brian Bilbray (for CA50, formerly Cunningham)may be facing a Grand Jury for fraud with regard to his legal residence.  

Your CO-05 analysis is off. Support is still building for Jay Fawcett, the CS Indy endrosed Jay yesterday - even they admitted it was not a gimme for the lefty paper.

And Doug Lamborn's implosions are still filtering through the news-o-sphere. His YouTube deer in the headlights moment was seen 80,000 times.

I would only remark on NY-20, where I am.  The one indy poll -- Siena Research -- is not so 'indy' (I used to teach there and know those guys).  They are pretty hardcore R's.  Perhaps it's only wishful thinking, but my sense is that Cook wasn't off the mark in changing it to No Clear Favorite.  One sees, for example, a lot of yard signs of local R's running, and Sweeney's name conspicuously missing.  Chuck Todd on 19/6 showed this race rising to #31.  

I'd like to see NY-20 in Tier 1.5

Has anyone seen any new polling for NH-02?  I can't believe more people haven't paid attention to the great work Hodes has done this time.  

Great job as always Chris.  I look forward to your updates every week.

One small nitpicky correction.  For FL-13 you have Buchanan in the race, but your comment references "Bachmann cash."

According to the Dan Seals campaign, a new poll will be released in the next couple of days showing this race much closer than the "ancient" poll in your forecast.

For those in the area, there will be a BIG canvassing event for Dan this Sunday. Details here:

http://www.dfalink.com/event.php?id=1375 6

Please note, the DFA group above is just one of MANY groups involved in the canvas.

Wow.  Pretty much the whole of New York's Republicans are in at least a little trouble.  Amazing.  I guess the only exceptions are NY-13 and NY-23.  Any kind of word on the state of those races?

I do think that OH-15 is a bit optimistic. My personal feeling tells me that it's not quite "lean Democratic" yet, although I'd definetely put it into "toss-up / lean dem"

some very good polls came out of there, but I think generally speaking a lot were too optimistic, especially IA-02, and some were bad, like CO-07 (with the wrong partisan trendlines as noted above). But, eh..

You're too pessimistic on Indiana 8. No poll has shown Hostettler anywhere near Ellsworth. He's got a double digit lead and a huge cash advantage, and WaPo's The Fix said that the NRCC might considering pulling out of there because its a lost cause.

What about the congressional elections with no polling at all done (as far as we know)? That's the majority.

With the 50-state campaign, we're contesting some seats that have never before been seriously contested. Should I really take heart when a campaign manager tells me they've raised more money than the Democratic candidates in the last 10 congressional elections in this district? Billboards and yardsigns are going up as I type, radio ads are paid for and ready to air, and a gigantic fund-raiser next week is aimed at raising adequate TV cash. And the candidate is solid, not the usual sacrificial lamb volunteering for the sake of party loyalty.

Dare I hope? I've been contributing, I wear my button, and my letter to the editor is about to be published--but do these nationally unheralded, unpolled candidates ever succeed?

This district is like Chris Carney's, except that, as far as we know, the incumbent hasn't beaten up his mistress.

Why no NJ-05? (Unless I missed it.) Aronsohn seems to be gaining momentum in a race against a genuine nutjob. Increased exposure wouldn't hurt!

Chris, I would temper your ratings--in both directions--to whatever extent they're based on the Constituent Dynamics polls.  At this point, I don't trust them any more than the Zogby Internet polls...and we all know how great they are.  Some of the CD polls are probably accurate...but we have now way of knowing which ones.

Overall, I think your take of 19-27 Democratic pick-ups is defensible...we just probably differ on which ones are the best chances for that 19-27.  

Fwiw, in a fairly evenly balanced district like the CO-7, I wouldn't expect Perlmutter blow O'Donnell away...a solid win, like 6-8 points, yes.

Waiting for Election Day is worse for me than a kid waiting for Christmas...except that Uncle Scrooge can show up.

Wow.  Peter King is only up by 2 points.  I would love to see him go.

Chris-

I live in the heart of IA-02, and I really think Loebsack has no chance.  He has had no presence in the district during this campaign at all.  No ads, very little press, even few yard signs.  Leach is an institution here, and probably far enough removed from the Bush Administration to avoid the worst of a wave.  

The main thing that makes me think Loebsack won't win is that Leach hasn't ramped up his advertising at all.  I'm sure he's doing internal polling, and I haven't seen anything from his campaign that looks like he thinks he's in danger.

I really don't trust those Consituent Dynamics polls at all.  There are enough of them that are widely different from any other poll to cast a doubt on all of them (for me at least).

PA-09th...we're not dead.
Tony Barr is making the Shuster people nervous.

Shuster is getting little support from the local GOP and no support from the RNCC.  The Local GOP is divided by the Eicelberger neo-cons and the Jubelirer ouster and the Foley thing and reports of the Bush's dealing with evangelists has the 'values voter" staying home.

The local Dem Committee has purchased Billboards and radio time and has mounted the biggest Dem GOTV operation seen since Bobby Kennedy.  Tony is greeted with smiles and attaboy's by D's and R's alike everywhere he goes.

There are no numbers to prove it but I say this race is 6 to 5 and pick em right now

http://www.tonybarr2006.com

There was a poll mentioned in the diaries yesterday, on MI 07 that suggests it should at least move to the watch list with the two other Mich districts.

Odd race.  Wacko wingnut defeats semi-moderate GOP incumbent Schwarz in primary.  Dem candidate ran last time and got trounced, but didn't raise any money.  She seems to be more invested this time, and won a four way primary with >50%.  Horrible name recognition for both candidates and major parts of the district are trending bluer as jobs become scarcer (Battle Creek) or the super blue Ann Arbor (U of Mich) people move out to the burbs (Wastenaw county area of district).  In the middle is ultra conservative Jackson, a town that used to rely on auto industry supplier jobs (Goodyear, Clark Equip, etc.) but became the poor cousin of Flint (Roger and Me) in the 80s.  This district was represented for many years by a Dem (Carl Purcell), until corrupt Nick Smith took an open election.

Polling firm used to work for Schwarz, and paid for the poll themselves, apparently.  It was not commissioned by Renier,  the Dem candidate.

With the seats you've added, did you take some off?  I thought you had a hard 60 seat limit?

A post-election Democratic House, Senate or both might in theory say no to another war. But if the Bush administration's cynicism is boundless, the Democrats' intellectual vacuity and moral cowardice are equally so. You can't beat something with nothing, but Democrats have put forward nothing in the way of an alternative to Bush's defense and foreign policies. On Iran, the question is whether they will be more scared of the Republicans or of the Israeli lobby. Either way, they will hide under the bed, just as they have hidden under the bed on the war in Iraq. It appears at the moment that a Congressional demand for withdrawal from Iraq is more likely if the Republicans keep the Senate and Senator John Warner of Virginia remains Chairman of the Senate Armed Services Committee than if the Democrats take over.

There is a great deal of material available to the Democrats to offer an alternative, much of it the product of the Military Reform Movement of the 1970s and 80s. Gary Hart can tell them all about it. There is even a somewhat graceful way out of Iraq, if the Dems will ask themselves my favorite foreign policy question, WWBD - What Would Bismarck Do? He would transfer sufficient Swiss francs to interested parties so that the current government of Iraq asks us to leave. They, not we, would then hold the world's ugliest baby, even though it was America's indiscretion that gave the bastard birth.

But donkeys will think when pigs fly. A Democratic Congress will be as stupid, cowardly and corrupt as its Republican predecessor; in reality, both parties are one party, the party of successful career politicians. The White House will continue a lost war in Iraq, solely to dump the mess in the next President's lap. America or Israel will attack Iran, pulling what's left of the temple down on our heads. Congress will do nothing to stop either war.

Why We Still Fight by William Lind

The undecided vote in most of these polls seems to be 4-10%.  I can't imagine that the undecideds are going to break 50/50.  They seem to be the most likely voters to be influenced by Foley/Corrutpion/Iraq etc.  Many of you are much more familiar with the polling process and I would appreciate responses that help me make sense of what those undecideds really mean.  My gut tells me 4% undecided means at least 3% for Dems this cycle but the voting patterns of America never cease to amaze.  Thanks

TPM just linked to a McClatchey news report that
the FBI is investigating Curt Weldon for possible quid pro quo in return for Russian and Serbian firm
lobbying contracts for Weldon's daughter.

This isn't a new issue, the 28-yr old daughter's amazing lobbyist income has been brought to light before, but this is the first time there's been a report the FBI and Justice Dept are looking at it.

• Baron Hill is negative campaigning
• Baron Hill doesn't support traditional marriage
• Baron Hill doesn't protect our flag (voted against flag protection)
• Baron Hill is out of step with our values.
• Baron Hill is too liberal for Indiana.

• Millionaire Mike Sodrel made millions on his trucking company but this millionaire opposes a minimum wage increase for workers who need it. In fact he said if he had his way he'd abolish it.
• Mike Sodrel looking out for number one.
• Baron Hill will help indiana families succeed. Tax cuts for college tuition and child care . Tax relief for working families. Baron Hill, on our side.

With Dem fortunes up it seems like this race should be at least competitive.

I haven't seen any polling.

Normally Wilson wins the absentee vote, but this year 69% of absentee ballots are being sent to Dems, including the ones at my house.

Also, if this list were in alpha-order it would be easier to digest.

I think it's time for AZ-05 to garner some attention.

Internal polling has Harry Mitchell leading J.D. Hayworth by 3 points.

Visits this campaign season by James Carville, Max Cleland, Wes Clark and others speak to Harry's credible candidacy.

AZ could see a delegation swing from 5-2 Rebub, to 5-2 Dem, what with Giffords expected to take retiring Jim Kolbe's(R) seat in AZ-08, and Ellen Simon leading Rick Renzi in AZ-01.