Holy crap.

Awesome. I hope they polled PA-08 again, this time with the proper demographic split.

I hope they finally included NC-08 in the list.  But, if not, who cares!  If we are close in NC-08, and they aren't even polling it!!!

That can only be good news.

This would be the end of the Republican Party. If true, the party will split.

We need 290 in the House and 67 in the Senate:  http://www.c-span.org/guide/congress/glo ssary/vetproof.htm

Help achieve this goal:  Donate to the DNC, the DSCC and the DCCC!

I hope that our efforts are rewarded with immediate, progressive legislation on the environment, labor and the general welfare (getting our society of the drug called oil.)

If our new Congress waits to move on legislation that is important to us then it will be the LEFT that splits like it almost did in 2000.

Progressives will have the political capital in '07 and it better be spent!!!

I hope they polled FL-13, since the last time was before the primary and they ran numbers here using a generic R v D, as opposed to the nominees themselves, which gave a horribly skewed picture in favor of the Republican.

Someone pointed out on Kos a really good result - Mean Jean Schmidt is down 3 to Victoria Wulsin in OH-02. If these Tier 3 races have results like these, who knows what this election could bring.

BULLSHIT!

Polls are crap.  The only thing that matters is what happens on November 7.  Turnout determines everything.  Nothing has been won.

PLEASE focus.  The news is good, but focus.

I thgnk I pointed this out a few weeks ago. IN a "landslide" election, the momentum really starts picking up closer to the election, and snowballs.

The side that's winnig gets a positoive feedback loop where all the polls and news, and news coverage seems to be going tehre way, whcih fires thgem up, and motivates them.

The losing side is exactly the opposite. They see the polls, news and news coverage look bleak, whcih demoralizes the, which effects the next round of likely voter screens, etc.

The key is to just keep piling on.

Importantly, there is a kind of bandwagon effect in the media coverage. Every piece of bad news for the losing side gets magnified and placed into the larger "a change is a comin'" narrative.

It gets really bad once the media starts believing one side is going to lose They the  treat them like losers all the time.

That's what is happening now to the Republicans. I think, frankly, barring some crazy, Octyober surprise such a mahjor terrorist attack on US soil, or the capture of Osama Bin Laden, the GOP is literally doomed.

I don't know much about how polls work, so hopefully someone can answer this. I haven't seen any polls for FL-24 (Clint Curtis vs. Tom Feeney). Most people seem to think Feeney has a lock on it, but with all the seats in play that were previously considered "safe" Republican, I'm dying to know if we have a shot.

Thanks for this analysis.

Generals are always fighting the last war, as it were.  However, the Foley matter and the forthcoming book, exposing G. Bush as someone who would mock christians and call them names behind their backs, changes everything.  Evangelicals in NC who supported Bush in 2004 are not going to stand for this.  Foley had them staying home.  This revelation will have them actually pulling the levers for democrats.

In 2006 North Carolina, while undergoing this extreme transistion, has other things in our favor.  This election ...is what is called (around here) a  "Blue Moon" election.  In blue moon elections, trends are magnified. The last blue moon election was in 1994, but in the last blue moon election, the parties are reversed.  In the blue moon election, The congressional races are all that is on the top of the ballot. We have no senate or governor or other state-wide partisan races in NC, in 2006.  In 1994, because of the amplification of trends during such races, the republicans feasted. This time,  Democrats are almost certain to pick-up at least two congressional districts, NC-11 and NC-08.

Two other districts, NC-06 and NC-05 don't have the democratic performance of NC-11 and NC-08, but they have something almost better.  Registration that is almost 3:2 Non-Republicans.  NC-06 and NC-05 both  have a great number of persuadable voters, as well as, an overwhelming population of born again and evangelical christians.  These people will vote this election, IF WE ASK THEM.

Wins in these four districts, will put NC back into pre-1994 shape.  The media markets are very inexpensive here.  We just need to support the very fine candidates running for these seats.

New Mexico looking good!

It looks like that ten point zogby spread isn't as farfetched as we all thought.

I think with the crosstabs, I'll have some blog fodder for a few days over at NM FBIHOP.

CO-7 was double digit for Perlmutter not to long ago. Other races seem closer than they used to be.  Don't get comfortable.

On the other hand, if Dems retake Congress on these numbers, and there is room for improvement, and there are races that will switch to Dem that are not in this study, and other races that have shown Dem momentum in Districts where Dems should not even have a chance (e.g. CO-05), then a full blown GOP spanking (metaphor - don't get excited Mr. Foley) may be coming!

We've got TWO, count them TWO seats on the big board from NC.  Southern Strategy my eye.

: )

No polling in TX-22, AZ-08 and FL-16 - certain Democratic pickups. No new poll in FL-22 or PA-08. And nothing yet from MI-09 or WY-AL. This is a great poll overall. I'm shocked that VA-10 is so close.

That's the speaker of the house. Wow.

I'm going to stick to pessimism and my guesstimate of a majority no higher than five seats, if and only if we get it.

The last thing we need is to get those five seats, and have the media asking why we didn't get twenty, and what that means for the yadda yadda yadda.

The media has a trunk full of Democratic narratives just waiting to be pulled out and polished. Stay on target. Stay on target.

AZ-01 has me thrilled. After the primary Simon was only 13 points behind in a poll, which showed it a possibility that she could move closer, but having a 4 point lead at this point is wonderful. I hope Rick Renzi is sweating over this.

...when the Reps beat nine Senate incumbents and won three open seats. They didn't lose a competitive seat.

2006 Feels like another big wave, all right.

Let's go surfin' now; everybody's learnin' how.

Madrid in NM (01) is a D, not an R. Although she Rocks!

This is obviously huge news for us ,.. the first truly independent poll, and the first one showing that the undecideds are making up their minds.

It also comes on a day when the RNCC started robocalls on Bill Sali's behalf and the day after Sali started an attack ad against Larry. Clearly, the GOP is scared shitless in a district where Bush took 69%. If this race isn't a bellwether, I dunno what is.

Thanks to you ALL for your support.

This is good news for us longtime supporters of future Congressman Larry Kissell, NC-08.

I'm wary about these numbers.  The CO-7 is inconsistent with every other set of numbers I've seen.

And I don't like the trend line in some.
WA-08   8/29   Burner 49, Reichert 46
10/12  Burner 45, Reichert 48

There are several of that kind of flip.

I'll be uneasy until the day after the election day shows us with an unquestionable number of seats in the majority.

I can't tell you anything about any of the other races in these polls, but this result --

IA-02: Loebsack (D) 48%--47% Leach (R)

-- strikes me as almost completely nonsensical.  IA-2 has been my home district most of my life.  Jim Leach has been my Rep. most of my life.  He's a moderate Republican but nobody hates him.  More here:

http://thepremise.com/archives/09/18/200 6/54

Yes, Leach could lose based on turnout, but I cannot imagine polling showing him behind.  Do you have any other corroborative data?  I haven't seen any polling on this race, and that fact alone makes me suspicious.

If there's anything I'm concerned about at this point in the cycle it's the Republican Party getting Democrats to be complacent by playing dead, hyping bad polls, etc.  They're great at lowering the bar of expectations.  If Democrats are on the cusp of a wave, then working hard is what will make that wave break.  Salivating over questionable polls is a mistake.

CQ Politics just re-rated NY-20 from Leans Republican to No Clear Favorite.  This is my district; I've been doing targeted calling.  Republican women who have never voted in a mid-term cycle are on the list, and I've been getting about a 70% positive response rate from these women.  Sweeney is (and comes off in his ads) as a thug.  Women don't like thugs.

   Peter King is the incumbent and Mejias is the Democratic challenger.  Mejias is only down three.  I hope this district gets more attention now.  Although there are so many districts in play now it really is hard to focus.

The polling in wake of the Foley scandal will tilt absurdly in our favor. Similar to the generic ballots with 21 and 23 point leads. Now we've got SurveyUSA showing Brown ahead of DeWine 54-40 and McCaskill leading Talent 51-42. Anyone who has followed those races, or understands the partisan breakdown of those states, realizes those numbers will not hold up on election day. Not even close.

Constituent Dynamics is a new player and I love the high sample sizes, not the puny 300-500 in other surveys. It should lead to accuracy but House polling is more unreliable than statewide or national races. How can we be sure they have accurate or sensible models for each of those districts?

I'll be more enthused if polling like this holds up from other companies, and two or three weeks from now, once the Foley scandal has eased somewhat and the playing field normalized.

It is true that any late breaking districts will be in our favor, which is the awesome dessert. In my district, NV-1, our incumbent Jim Bilbray was cruising to re-election over John Ensign at this point in '94. Mason-Dixon polled Ensign ahead by 7 with a week to go and other polls had the margin even higher. But Ensign took advantage of the perfect storm GOP year and a late breaking scandal involving a land deal favoring a key Bilbray advisor, to come from behind and upset Bilbray by 1400 votes.

remember how Zogby had us winning in 2004?

Is JD Hayworth not one of the most reviled members of the House, or is it because he really has little power that this district is continually ignored?

I don't get it.

I finally put my convictions to action and donated to several races.  I have NEVER been that passionate about an election cycle as this one.

The DCCC released a bunch of new polls today, too.

http://www.dccc.org/stakeholder/archives /005384.html

AZ-01, Does Ellen Simon really truly have a legit shot at beating Rick Renzi?  Realistically?

If so, I think I'm gonna have to cough up a few hundred bucks for her.

I've just posted a MyDD diary that relates to some of these candidates.

The NYTimes ran a story Wednesday about a new 527, Americans for Honesty on Issues running negative ads against unidentified Democratic House candidates.

I have identified the 9 targeted House candidates, 5 of whom were listed in the Majority Report above and, the sole source of funding for the group.