Getting Out the Vote

by Jonathan Singer, Sun Oct 01, 2006 at 10:29:33 AM EDT

Chris has detailed in recent days that although there is a general consensus among pollsters that the Democrats hold a double-digit lead among registered voters, there is disagreement among pollsters about how likely voters will swing, with some seeing a strong Democratic lead among likely voters and others finding near parity between the two parties among likely voters. It's difficult to discern the reasoning behind the different likely voter results because many polling outfits simply will not release their likely voter screens. However, the Cook Political Report has and it contains some very interesting information about the direction of the election.

Cook's latest polling (.pdf) conducted by RT Strategies asks voters, on a scale of one to ten, how interested they are in this year's elections and breaks down voters into three categories: registered voters, likely voters (those who answered either 9 or 10 out of 10) and most likely voters (just those who responded 10).

Among registered voters, President Bush's approval rating stands at 40 percent, with 50 percent disapproving. Among likely voters, his approval rating is the same but his disapproval rating is four points higher. But among the most likely voters, the President's approval rating is 47 percent, with 47 percent disapproving.

The generic congressional ballot numbers bear out similar results. Registered voters favor the Democrats by a 47 percent to 34 percent margin, 49 percent to 35 percent including leaners. Among likely voters, Democrats lead 53 percent to 35 percent (54 to 36 with leaners). But among the most likely voters, Democrats lead is just 8 points, 48 percent to 40 percent (49 to 41 with leaners).

If we are to glean anything from this poll it is this: If only the voters who go to the polls on November 7 are those who essentially need no prompting from either party, then the Democrats should be able to pull off a narrow victory in overall balloting. If, however, Democrats can turn out the category of voters who are highly interested but will need at least some cajoling, then they have the potential of scoring a profound victory in five and a half weeks.

These numbers just underscore the fact that we need to do everything we can to ensure that our voters get to the polls this year. Contact a campaign or Democratic Party organization in your area and find out what help you might be able to give them in the coming weeks. Go to 100actions.com, a clearinghouse for local events. Hold a house party. Talk to your neighbors. Make sure we get people to the polls. Because if we do, we could really upend Washington and begin to institute the change so desperately needed in the country today.

Tags: 2006, GOTV, polls (all tags)

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9 Comments

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Re: Getting Out the Vote

This is funny...

Democrats have a 13% lead among Registered voters...COOL!

Democrats have a 16% lead among LIKELY VOTERS...DOUBLE COOL!

So these numbers are not good enough for Washington pollsters...so they've created a whole new category.

Those who are MOST LIKELY to vote...now, i'm not sure how Charlie Cook decided who was MOST LIKELY to vote, but i'm definitely interested. It's obvious that the number is HEAVILY tilted towards the Republicans given the 7 point jump for Bush.

But want to hear the REALLY FUNNY THING?

Even among this group...we STILL lead by 8 points!

This is going to be a VERY GOOD YEAR!!!

by JackBourassa 2006-10-01 10:45AM | 0 recs
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LOL!

"So these numbers are not good enough for Washington pollsters...so they've created a whole new category." Perfect encapsulation of the Beltway CW's anti-Dem bias.

But since even in the made-up category we're leading, I anticipate a new poll next week of "mostest likely voters who are mostest likely to vote (because Jesus will drive them to the polls)." THAT will give the pundits the Repuke lead they so desire.

by jamfan 2006-10-01 11:07AM | 0 recs
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Nothing surprising here

This last category is not imaginary. There are people who will go out to vote in a driving rain or snowstorm.

The best predictor of such people is how long they've lived at the same address, so they are not necessarily wealthy, older or conservative, but they are likely to be.

I think it is very important to fight for these votes because each converted voter is worth, on the numbers, at least twice as much at the polls as a one drawn from the ranks of the less well-to-do, the young, or the liberal. I say twice as much because they are twice as likely to be in the polling place on election day.

The other reason for working this class of voters is that they are key influencers. Rooted in the community, better educated, and generally well-respected, these voters are leaders in nearly everything. They are school principals, business executives, labor leaders, clergymen, judges, department heads, PTA chairpersons and nearly every other place, exalted or not, where people are in a position to lead opinion.

If you win with this group of super-likely voters, you win.

None of this is to argue for neglecting traditional GOTV, which is not only usually necessary to win, and always necessary to pile on. A Democratic mandate should come from the middle-class or, to speak a little more plainly, the have-nots.

But it's imprudent to bet a midterm election on people who typically do not vote.

by stevehigh 2006-10-01 12:22PM | 0 recs
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Re: Getting Out the Vote

History says that Republican voters are less likely to turn out than Democrats in off-year elections.  Here's the number of Republican votes for the most recent off-year elections:

1990: 27,402,036

  1. 36,325,583
  2. 31,983,612
  3. 37,091,270

There are at least six million Republican voters who only show up when motivated.

The Democratic turnout has been a lot more steady.

1990: 32,397,732

  1. 31,542,823
  2. 31,391,834
  3. 33,642,142

Does this look like a year when the Republicans get a magic turnout?  Don't think so.  9/11 has come and gone and so has 1994.  Since these two elections were the Republicans two big surges over the last 14 off elections let's look at another Republican scandal year for turnout:

1966: 25,408,798

  1. 24,121,959
  2. 21,665,583
  3. 24,401,021

Looks like close to 2.5 to 3 million R voters stayed home that year.

(source:US House elections report, summary page)

by David Kowalski 2006-10-01 12:25PM | 0 recs
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That's not how I interpret those numbers

You win when you get unusually high turnout. That's what the GOP received in '94 and '02. So the question is not if we can desperately hope the other side doesn't show up, but whether we have motivated our voters to storm the polls in similar 36+ million numbers that the Republicans got in those midterms.

I'm hopeful but not convinced, not when the message is much more anti-GOP than for our candidates and messaging. No one will ever convince me that is the proper strategy or pays full dividend.

You can look at it another way also. Since Rove has been completely in charge beginning in '02 the Republicans got surreal turnout in a first term midterm in '02 (compare to our '94), then swamped all turnout expectation in '04. I think it's extremely dangerous to assume the other side will hand us a glorified forfeit.

by jagakid 2006-10-01 03:29PM | 0 recs
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Re: Getting Out the Vote

I am 27 years old and the thing I have noticed is that I am now way more involved in the past two years than ever.  There is no way in hell I am going to be missing this election.  I am even signed up to be an election supervisor this time around.  Not that that will sway anyone, but at least I am trying to do my part.  

This is the first time I have seen this 100action site, and I wish I had seen this site before.  The flyers are very cool that they have on there today.

I think I am going to try and print a bunch of tomorrow at work and distribute them Monday night.  Hopefully people get them and are at least receptive enough to actually read them.  Maybe even get a few people that are not registered to vote, to register.  

Anyone here have any suggestions?

by Gigadafud 2006-10-01 01:28PM | 0 recs
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If you're in New York

come out and phonebank, calling is happening most nights from New York City, Ithaca and Auburn.

The polls might look good, but if we let up then we're letting the Republicans back in it.

by SteveWFP 2006-10-01 03:17PM | 0 recs
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Re: Getting Out the Vote

While I think its humorous to note the mere 8 point Democrat lead among "mostest likeliest" voters and it may very well be a pathetic attempt to spin really bad numbers, there is a kernel of underlying truth in that number.  The 5-10% of the voting population who would support a Democrat, but are not among the "mostest likeliest" must get to the polls on November 7th for we Democrats to take both the Senate and House.  This means that we need a huge GOTV effort.

From the national Democrat Party to Moveon.org to your state's Democrat Paty to your state's environmental group to your local Senate district, we need everyone working hard and working together to make sure that 5-10% get to the polls.

I think this is distinctly in the realm of possibility because it is so clear how badly the Republicans are leading this nation.  The Democrat base is pretty motivated this year and the examples abound in the primaries that have happened this year.

I highly recommend that everyone who reads this thread contact your local senate district and get involved in their GOTV effort.  The more people out working on this, the more people we get to the polls.  For the first time in the longest time, it seems that Democrats are all pulling on the right oars and in the right direction.

Peace. Out.

The Big E
mnblue.com

by The Big E 2006-10-02 06:33AM | 0 recs
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Re: Getting Out the Vote

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by estebban 2006-12-04 12:15AM | 0 recs

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