Polling Project: Second Release
by Chris Bowers, Sat Jan 28, 2006 at 10:41:48 AM EST
Polling Project: Methodological Statement
Polling Project: First Release
Now we are starting to get into the good stuff. The first release focused on the first five questions of the poll, mainly in order to demonstrate that the poll was a solid, accurate sample of national public opinion that was in line with the majority of other recent public polls. This release will look at the results to questions 6-9. While the really, really juicy stuff will come out in three separate releases on Monday, these questions should all tide over your appetite until that time. All of them reveal information that you won't find in any other public poll.
These four questions are the terrorism and "fear" questions. None of these are groundbreaking in and of themselves, as several other polling outfits have asked similar questions. However, I have always been frustrated that no polling outfit who asks these questions ever releases cross tabs for these questions, specifically party ID cross tabs. Who is more worried about terrorist attacks taking place, Democrats or Republicans? Who is more concerned that we haven't captured Osama Bin Laden, Democrats or Republicans? Who feels more safe and secure since 9-11, Democrats or Republicans? I really want to know this stuff, because I think knowing whether or not there is a difference between partisans on these topics would inject an interesting new dynamic into several relevant debates. As such, I have looked for partisan ID cross tabs for a long time within the releases of many polling outfits, but I have never found them provided for these sorts of questions. I don't know why. Maybe I just haven't looked hard enough. Maybe it just never occurred to other pollsters. Maybe pollsters were worried they would be "politicizing" fear and terror by releasing such cross-tabs, even though Republicans have now run two entire elections our of politicizing fear and terror. Who knows.
Well, whatever the reason, I am happy to be able to present these numbers to you today:
Q6. How would you rate the federal government's efforts in protecting America since 9/11?
All Dems Reps Ind/Other/No Party
Excellent 13.8% 3.2% 28.1% 10.7%
Good 40.1% 29.8% 51.3% 39.6%
Fair 29.2% 40.1% 14.7% 32.1%
Poor 11.3% 18.4% 4.6% 11.0%
Very Poor 5.5% 8.4% 1.3% 6.6%
Wow. Even though the margin of error on these sub-samples is pretty large, Democrats and Republicans obviously give the government very different ratings on protecting America since 9-11. Non-partisans seems to fall roughly in between the Democratic and Republican positions.
Q7. How would you characterize your own feelings of safety and security since 9/11?(1-5 scale. 1 = Feel a lot safer and more secure now; 5 = A lot less safe and less secure now)
All Dems Reps Ind/Other/No Party
1 23.7 11.6 34.4 25.4
2 19.3 13.5 26.6 18.3
3 33.1 39.8 23.0 35.8
4 12.2 17.9 9.2 9.8
5 11.5 17.2 6.9 10.7
Again, a large difference. Democrats feel a lot less safe and secure since 9-11 than Republicans. Interesting.
Q8. How worried are you that there will be another terrorist attack on the United States in the next year?(1-5 scale. 1 = Not worried at all; 5 = Extremely worried)
All Dems Reps Ind/Other/No Party
1 18.5 14.4 22.0 19.1
2 19.0 14.7 22.0 20.2
3 28.8 27.9 27.3 30.8
4 17.5 21.6 16.3 15.0
5 16.2 21.3 12.3 15.0
(1-5 scale. 1 = Not worried at all; 5 = Extremely worried)
All Dems Reps Ind/Other/No Party
1 23.9 17.1 31.9 23.0
2 15.6 13.0 18.9 15.1
3 24.0 21.0 24.9 25.8
4 14.0 14.9 11.6 15.1
5 22.6 34.0 12.6 21.1
Wow. A majority of Republicans in this survey are not very worried about capturing Osama Bin Laden. Only a quarter are very or extremely worried. The difference here between Democrats and Republicans is gaping.
There are lots of other cross tabs to these questions, and I can't possibly post them all right now. However, they will all be available within the next few days. I don't want to throw too much of my own analysis onto these numbers, as I think they are quite provocative in their own right. These are good, accurate numbers, which I think add a new, interesting element to the national debate on terrorism and national security. Besides, you guys paid for these numbers. I'd like to hear what you have to say first.
Tags: Blogosphere, Democrats, polls, Republicans, terrorism (all tags)









35 Comments