Afternoon Thread

by Chris Bowers, Tue Jan 17, 2006 at 09:38:00 AM EST

Here are some items of note today: This is an open thread.

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17 Comments

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Gingrich Always The Pot, Calling The Kettle Black
You can always tell what conservatives are going to do. Just look at what they've spent the last 10, 20, 30 years of accusing liberals and Democrats of doing.

Run unsustainable budget deficits, with no regard for fiscal responsibility? Check!

Appoint judicial activists to pass an extremist un-American agenda the people would never vote for directly? Check!

Attack the patriotism of military heroes? Check!

Run Congress like a plantation? Check!

They are so, soooo predictable.

by Paul Rosenberg 2006-01-17 10:11AM | 0 recs
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The BAP rating
BAP is short for "Bush approval projection" and it's used for the GOP held Congressional districts.

Here's the formula.

Bush approval rating for the state plus the difference between Bush's H2H showing in that state and Bush's H2H showing in that district

Then again, for this, I just decided approval by the total of approve/disapprove, to make it slightly more "to the point"

Here's the 15 Republican districts with the lowest projected ratings for Bush (and the 'projected' rating, actual ratings may vary)

  1. VA-11 (Davis) - 40%
  2. NV-03 (Porter) - 40%
  3. PA-06 (Gerlach) - 39%
  4. PA-08 (Fitzpatrick) - 39%
  5. CT-02 (Simmons) - 39%
  6. OH-12 (Tiberi) - 39%
  7. WA-08 (Reichert) - 39%
  8. OH-01 (Chabot) - 39%
  9. OH-15 (Pryce) - 38%
  10. IL-10 (Kirk) - 38%
  11. IA-02 (Leach) - 38%
  12. PA-07 (Weldon) - 38%
  13. FL-22 (Shaw) - 38%
  14. KY-03 (Northup) - 35%
  15. DE-AL (Castle) - 33%

KY-03's low rating can be attributed to the 11 point difference between Bush in Kentucky and Bush in that district. It might be too low.

Some of the states have had big drops between Bush's showing on election day and Bush's approval today.

Some of the biggest drops

Arkansas: 55/45 in 11/04, 39/61 in 01/06
Kentucky: 60/40, 46/54
Delaware: 46/54, 33/67
Indiana: 60/40, 47/53
Oklahoma: 66/34, 53/47
Wyoming: 70/30, 57/43
Missouri: 54/46, 42/58
Ohio: 51/49, 39/61

And I also had a percentage where the Congressional showing would be subtracted by the Bush showing. For example, somebody like Marilyn Musgrave finished 7 points behind Bush.

Now, if when I add that percentage to the Bush Approval Projection, I find that 47 Republicans can't make it to 50% (sure, there's some other factors here, like opponents spending money, weak incumbents, and open seats)

The 47 districts, for reference:

AR-03 (Boozman), CA-26 (Dreier), CO-4 (Musgrave), CO-7 (Open), CT-2/4/5 (Simmons, Shays, Johnson), FL-13 (Open), IA-1 (Open), IL-6 (Open), IL-11 (Weller), IN-2 (Chocola), IN-8 (Hostettler), IN-9 (Sodrel), KS-2 (Ryun), KY-3 (Northup), KY-4 (Davis), LA-7 (Boustany), MI-7 (Schwarz), MI-9 (Knollenberg), MI-11 (McCotter), MN-2 (Kline), MN-6 (Open), NC-5 (Foxx), NC-7 (Hayes), NC-11 (Taylor), NE-1 (Fortenberry), NJ-5 (Garrett), NJ-7 (Ferguson), NV-3 (Porter), NY-24 (Boehlert), NY-26 (Reynolds), NY-29 (Kuhl), OH-1 (Chabot), OH-4 (Open), OH-12 (Tiberi), OH-15 (Pryce), OK-1 (Sullivan), PA-6 (Gerlach), PA-8 (Fitzpatrick), PA-15 (Dent), TX-32 (Sessions), VA-2 (Drake), WA-5 (McMorris), WA-8 (Reichert), WV-2 (Capito), WY (Cubin)

There's a few I would quickly remove from this list (The open seats from 2004 and Sessions)

As well, there'll be a lot of things involving the word "If" for some of these districts.

Also, this does not factor in openness of the seat, or the incumbents unpopularity, although Tom DeLay and Tom Davis did clock in at barely over 50%

47 is a pretty good number, when the target is 15.

I'd imagine there's at least 15 winnable seats on that list too.

Ok, that's all.

by RBH 2006-01-17 11:50AM | 0 recs
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Mississippi? Aw, What the Heck...
Lets throw some resources into Mississippi anyway. We gotta at least show up. Trent Lott, of all people, doesn't deserve an easy reelection.

Even though I'm from Florida, and I probably should be keeping my mouth shut on Mississippi, I still just want to put a little heat on Lott's racist butt.

by gatordemocrat 2006-01-17 11:50AM | 0 recs
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Re: Mississippi? Aw, What the Heck...
I agree. Many things can happen. Remember the 50 state strategy. Never say die!
by Fridley 2006-01-17 06:55PM | 0 recs
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Say Das! n/t
by Paul Rosenberg 2006-01-17 07:26PM | 0 recs
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Is it Just Me?
Or is there something screwy about the logic of this:

Remapping the Culture Debate

When it came to defining themselves in the nation's ongoing cultural battles -- such as the battle over "family values" -- Democrats had virtually ceded the field to Republicans, presenting an uncertain face to the public. Voters, the research showed, were looking to cultural and lifestyle markers to determine whether or not a candidate was, in fact, going to do right by the economy, the Democrats' one persistently strong area. The Democracy Corps pollsters concluded that voters saw traditional Democratic economic concerns as having little to do with them, being mainly "manifested in costly government social programs or political alliances with labor unions and minorities." The party's inattentiveness to cultural matters had, paradoxically, left these voters with "absolutely no sense that Democrats have a viable alternative vision that would truly promote broad economic growth or increased prosperity for working Americans."

Is the problem here really "inattentiveness to cultural matters"? Or is it rather a failure to formulate and push a view of the economy that explains why labor unions and social programs are good for the economy and social justice too?

Then there's this:

American voters have taken shelter under the various wings of conservative traditionalism because there has been no one on the Democratic side in recent years to defend traditional, sensible middle-class values against the onslaught of the new nihilistic, macho, libertarian lawlessness unleashed by an economy that pits every man against his fellows.

Well, then, is the problem just that we are inattentive to cultural matters or also that we are not developing an institutional blueprint for an economy that is more just and cooperative.

Why is anything she says here an argument against "economic populism"? Once we have that, it should be pretty easy to find a moral justification for social justice. It's all right there in the New Testament.

Ideas? I know GFR is one of Bowers' favorites, but she's not one of mine.

by tgeraghty 2006-01-17 12:36PM | 0 recs
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Naive Reporting
This is too much like stenography from someone who doesn't know a lot about survey data, and didn't do a very good job of getting experts to help her fill in her gaps.  It only took me about 5-10 minutes to find some contradictory data.

My conclusion?

I'd really be interested in the underlying data, but I seriously doubt that it shows what is claimed here.  For one thing, it contradicts the admittedly cruder sort of questioning that goes on in the General Social Survey.  Still, the picture these guys paint tells us that the GSS variable EQWLTH--SHOULD GOVT REDUCE INCOME DIFFERENCES--ought to show a measurable, if not significant decline in affirmative responses from 1992 to 2004.  But it doesn't.  There's a little shifting around, but with an R of -.02, you can tell it doesn't amount to much.  

Here's the question text:


74A. Some people think that the government in Washington ought  to reduce the income differences between the rich and the poor, perhaps by raising the taxes of wealthy families or by giving
income assistance to the poor. Others think that the government should not concern itself with reducing this income difference between the rich and the poor. Here is a card with a scale from
1 to 7. Think of a score of 1 as meaning that the government ought to reduce the income differences between rich and poor, and a score of 7 meaning that the government should not concern
itself with reducing income differences. What score between 1 and 7 comes closest to the way you feel? (CIRCLE ONE)

Here's what happened with those most in favor of equality (1):

  1.     17.8
  2.     14.6
  3.     17.7
  4.     15.1
  5.     16.3
  6.     19.4
  7.     20.4

While responses (2) and (3) fluctuated differently, the total 1-3 was higher in both 1993 and 2004 than it was in 1998--by a significant amount: 48.0 in 1993, 47.0 in 2004, and 42.5 in 1998.

This simply doesn't square with what these guys are saying.  I'm not saying that their data is bunk.  Just that I think we have to have other people looking at it and comparing it to other data we aleady have from other sources.

And, of course, if their data itself is questionable--as I think this shows--then their conclusions are doubly so.  I would never write off a new approach to mass political psychology sight unseen.  But neither would I embrace it that way either.

Furthermore, we should not forget that they are taking an approach that accepts and reinforces the basic Republican viewpoint--that politics is a product that you have to sell people in a demographically targetted manner.  The Democratic viewpoint is that politics should transcend mere market preferences.  It should speak to us at a more fundamental level.  It should be more coarse-grained, more robust, more one-size-fits all.  Just how much this market-oriented approach influences the output remains to be seen, but it's a definite red-flag-raiser.

by Paul Rosenberg 2006-01-17 06:08PM | 0 recs
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Re: Naive Reporting
I knew you'd have some good info on this.
by tgeraghty 2006-01-17 06:23PM | 0 recs
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Re: Naive Reporting
the basic Republican viewpoint--that politics is a product that you have to sell people in a demographically targetted manner.

This is right. GFR writes as if people's world-view and political preferences are set in stone, as if political argument can't alter people's perceptions of self-interest and their political preferences.

by tgeraghty 2006-01-17 07:24PM | 0 recs
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Politics vs. Retail Marketing
It's pretty simple.  A company marketing a product has very little to gain from spending money trying to change fundamental attitudes, when it's much easier to simply adapt it's marketing. There's not much motivation to be pro-active, rather than reactive. The benefits will be reaped by many others as well, including competitors.

But changing fundamental attitudes is precisely what politics is all about in the long run. Being pro-active is what agenda-setting is all about.  And benefiting others--especially our own future candidates--is something we want.

by Paul Rosenberg 2006-01-17 07:48PM | 0 recs
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Nice Find on the Gingrich Comments
It should be sent around so it is part of our talking points. The Rev Al did well on Hardball but he could have used this info.
by John Mills 2006-01-17 02:58PM | 0 recs
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Olberman just mentioned Newt
After the commercial break it looks like he's going to bring out the Newt quote. It's 5:12 PST.
by Gary Boatwright 2006-01-17 03:13PM | 0 recs
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Re: Olberman just mentioned Newt
Thank god for Olberman.  He is the best.
by John Mills 2006-01-17 04:43PM | 0 recs
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Why Does Henry Cuellar Keep Pretending He's a Dem?
Sure Ciro is my client, but I still think this is interesting: Henry Cuellar accepted an endorsement from the Club for Growth today - the first time they have ever endorsed a Democrat.
by aapineda 2006-01-17 03:13PM | 0 recs
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Survey USA
I don't know much about polling - but 600 seems like a really small number.
by David in Burbank 2006-01-17 04:16PM | 0 recs
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Re: Survey USA
Sample Size Calculator says:
Sample Size: 600
by Paul Rosenberg 2006-01-17 07:19PM | 0 recs
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Damn!
Hit the wrong button!  So much for trying to be pretty.

Sample size: 600
Population: 10,000,000
Percentage: 50
Confidence Interval: 4

Sample size: 600
Population: 100,000
Percentage: 50
Confidence Interval: 3.99

Sample size: 600
Population: 100,000
Percentage: 40
Confidence Interval: 3.91

Does that help?

by Paul Rosenberg 2006-01-17 07:23PM | 0 recs

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