VA Gov update, Kaine's got the big mo

by Jerome Armstrong, Fri Sep 30, 2005 at 04:02:08 AM EDT

Good news on the home front. Rasmussen polling shows it's now tied in Virginia between Kilgore and the Democrat Kaine:
          Sept 30     Sept 15
Kaine     45          40
Kilgore   45          43
Potts      5           5

Kaine's gained substantially, as I posted a week ago, their internal polling shows them up 1%, now Rasmussen shows a 5% swing to Kaine in the last two weeks, and the signs are of that trend continuing. A few days ago, Kilgore accused VDOT under Gov Warner of not getting all the transportation funds that it could for Virginia, sending a frontal attack on Gov Warner. This prompted a rebuttle along many lines in the state, with Warner blasting on Kilgore saying that Republican gubernatorial candidate's claims about the state's highway agency are --quote-- "absolutely factually untrue."

I guess Kilgore figured that Warner is going to go strong for Kaine, and he should attack Warner first, but it looks like all the momentum is now on Kaine's side. It's not like Bush can come in to help Kilgore at this point to offset the advantage toward Kaine that Warner's involvement protends. I'd garner that in a match-up between Bush and Warner in Virginia, that Warner would win by double-digits. Warner has a 69% approval rating, Bush a 49% approval rating, in Virginia, according to Rasmussen.

Kilgore is about to start flailing (GOP is ramping up on attacks of "illegals"), trying to make anything stick. His recent tv ad makes an outright lie that Kaine supported the Republican effort last year to raise the gas tax (yea, sorta strange, that one)-- a charge the papers refuted for Kaine. We are going to see a desperate Kilgore in the next month.

Tags: Governor 2005-6 (all tags)

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What I LIke Is
that, at least so far, the Rs attack on illegal immigration is not hurting Kaine.  I think failure of this issue to gain traction would be a good sign for '06.  
by Andy Katz 2005-09-30 04:49AM | 0 recs
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Lookin' Good, but ...
It ain't over yet, and Kilgore's still got a lot of money to throw around in nasty ads. And he will, be sure of that -- he's a sleaze who hires sleazes, so it won't be pretty in the months leading up to the election.

A whole lot of us progressive Dems in Virginia aren't terribly keen about Kaine. But the alternative is so awful, that I'm doing what I can to defeat Kilgore.

It's important for Virginia -- and a Democratic win in Virginia would do good thing for the party nationwide because it would be reported as a Republican defeat in a Red State. Wonderful!

by S1 2005-09-30 04:56AM | 0 recs
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months?
the election's in 5 1/2 weeks!
by johnny longtorso 2005-09-30 06:26AM | 0 recs
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Re: Lookin' Good, but ...
Kaine is fine - he's not as pro choice as I am or would like the governor to be, and I'm 100% pro gay marriage while he opposes it.

But I've seen him explain these positions - he has vowed to veto legislation outlawing abortion and convinced me that his gay marriage position is not the tip of some iceberg of anti-gay agenda. His record as a civil rights lawyer who fought for the rights of African Americans to be able to move into white neighborhoods in VA and to buy insurance at the same rates as whites in VA speaks to his "fighting for the little guy" credentials.

And you're right: Jerry Kilgore is horrible. He's a former lobbyist for big insurance companies among others who couldn't think his way out of a paper bag. He's an anti-tax, anti-gay, anti-abortion loyalist whose only political quandary is whether to suck up more to Grover Norquist or Pat Robertson. Intellectually, he makes George W. Bush look like Woodrow Wilson.

Kaine is the kind of Democrat who could get elected to the Senate in Virginia - not Barbara Boxer, but on our side - whereas Kilgore is the kind of guy who could get elected to the Senate in Oklahoma.

by redsoxkangaroo 2005-10-02 04:17AM | 0 recs
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the race so far
The tightening so far seems to reflect Democrats tuning in and coming home. 45% is about what your average Democratic Presidential Candidate would get.    There's still a piece of the natural GOP base that's off in Potts-land - I'm guessing Kilgore's going to spend serious time trying to fix that hole. Also, GOP turnout traditionally surges on election day in VA, even when they ultimately lose. That's a long way of saying that we're not out of the woods yet. I'm proud of the smart campaign that Kaine's running though.
by bi66er 2005-09-30 05:10AM | 0 recs
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Here is to hoping
Lets hope its really the "big mo" and not just "joementum".

 ... a little Friday humor

by dpANDREWS 2005-09-30 05:33AM | 0 recs
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If you want to help.......Nov 8 election
If you want to help:
Kaine's  website
http://www.kaine2005.org/home.php

DNC LTE tool
http://www.democrats.org/a/2005/09/write_about_tim.php

by jasmine 2005-09-30 06:15AM | 0 recs
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Weak
Kaine's ads are weaker than Kilgore's. Even if Kilgore's are not true, most people get their opinions from TV ads, not editorial pages. Most people aren't even aware of what editorial pages are saying.

So as far as most people know, Kaine supported a gas tax increase.

He needs some kind of rebuttal of this.

One of Kaine's assets is his winning personality, which comes across on TV. Kilgore comes off, not as a hayseed, a portrayal he accused Kaine of spreading, but as a mama's boy. Little Lord Fauntleroy. Put him in a sailor's suit.

by Mister Go 2005-09-30 06:34AM | 0 recs
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Re: Weak
Well I haven't seen Kaine's ads, but I'll take your word that they could be weak. Kilgore is a dunce and does look like a mama's boy toy, but 45%-45% is not enough a strong swing to Kaine, it might just be that Kilgore is stalling. At this point in 2001, Warner was at least in the high single digits ahead of Early and won by on 4-5% on election day. Everthing has to break for Kaine from here on forward and like Deeds, they both need Mark Warner on their side every hour, every day and every week till the polls close.

PS: Jerome when is the Forward Together website coming up?

by dantata 2005-09-30 06:59AM | 0 recs
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Hardly
I disagree wholly about Kaine's ads.  His latest one with Warner is great.  I think it'd be a huge mistake for Kaine to let loose with either defensive or even offensive ads.

We saw this with Mark Warner four years ago.  Republican Mark Earley (his opponent then) had a series of attack ads on Warner.  The more that Earley attacked Warner, the nicer that Warner's ads were.  The end result was that Earley came off looking like an asshole, Warner looked like a mensch, and Earley got his clocked cleaned at the polls, losing by 6%, IIRC.

-Waldo Jaquith

by Waldo Jaquith 2005-09-30 06:30PM | 0 recs
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Re: Weak
Kaine has ads?  Wow - I wish I could see some.  Caveat, I live in Northern Virginia which may not be one of his targeted audiences because we'll vote for Kaine anyway, but you'd think that with so much money coming from Loudon County (over a million raised for each candidate from Loudon according to VPAP), we have a few ads.

I've seen about 150 ads on Newschannel 8 and Fox 5 and even DISH delivered FX and History channel for Kilgore.  Nothing at all for Kaine.  It wouldn't be so bad except that I actually know that Kilgore's ads are all lies.

Kaine's campaign needs to rebut this gas tax ad in particular, and fast, and on even the local Republican propaganda channels (Fox and ABC affiliates like News8).  We're compounding the high gas prices with being stuck in traffic.  It would definitely make an impact here.

by snolan 2005-10-01 01:14PM | 0 recs
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Re: Weak
Kaine's ads are here (according to his blog).
by redsoxkangaroo 2005-10-02 04:20AM | 0 recs
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Kilgore's fundraising goal, extended deadline
Take a look at this letter that Jerry Kilgore emailed out.  Read between the lines to see the desperation.  He is having trouble raising funds to meet an internal goal by September 30th, a campaign filing deadline.  You know things are not going so great when a campaign fundraising goal deadline has been extended.  

Here's the long list of Kilgore achievers, confirming that the fundraising campaign is not going so well:

http://www.jerrykilgore.com/contents/mdc/

Kilgore's handlers and staff are starting to sweat, and they are looking for a break, any break.  Let's don't give them that break.

http://www.kaine2005.org

With two governor wins in New Jersey and Virginia, Democrats may find the momentum we need to move into 2006!  One step at a time...

September 29, 2005

Dear Supporter,

A few weeks ago, I wrote to my most dedicated supporters inviting them to join the "Kilgore for Governor Million Dollar Club", and I am happy to report that hundreds of people signed up to participate.  As a result, we have increased the number of individual donors to my campaign by almost 20 percent.

The Million Dollar Club program was pioneered by George Allen when he ran for Governor in 1993. It was a huge success and really invigorated grassroots activists - helping to push him over the victory line against a well-financed Democrat opponent. Now, with the power of the internet we can involve even more people in this important grassroots program. The plan is very simple - we intend to recruit up to 1,000 individuals like you to raise $1,000 by October 15 (New - extended deadline!).

This does not mean you have to donate $1,000 - but simply raise $1,000 from anyone, in any increment. Gathering ten $100 contributions, twenty $50 contributions or even contributions for $10 will add up quickly. While the thought of raising $1,000 may seem daunting at first, it is relatively easy to do. We will provide you with tips on fundraising and advice on how to raise the money.

Once you've raised $1,000, you'll be a member of the "Kilgore for Governor Million Dollar Club." Your name will be place prominently on our website as a Million Dollar Club member; you'll receive a one-of-a-kind membership pin and be invited to an appreciation picnic so that Marty and I can personally thank you for your dedication and support.

If you decide not to join, I hope you will consider making a secure online contribution today as Friday is an important fundraising deadline. If everyone receiving this email contributed just $25, we would be able to fund one week's worth of television and radio ads. These ads are vital if we are to communicate to the millions of voters who will likely vote on November 8, less than six weeks away now.

The campaign is in strong shape, but we need to continue to run as if we are ten points behind as we head into the home-stretch. The candidate that finishes strong and with the momentum will likely win. Though we have led in 14 of 15 public polls, there are still plenty of undecided voters we need to reach out to and convert into Jerry Kilgore voters, and I need your help to win them over.

Your participation in the "Kilgore for Governor Million Dollar Club" or your contribution of $25 will give us the resources we need in the final weeks of this campaign to finish strong and win on November 8.

Thank you in advance for your generous support and heartfelt dedication.  With individuals of your character and determination, we will be victorious and be ready to enact Honest Reform in 2006.

Sincerely,

Jerry Kilgore

P.S. For information on how to request an absentee ballot application, please click here.

P.P.S. Please don't forget to display a Kilgore for Governor Bumper Sticker or Yard Sign.

 
by Bill Felmlee 2005-09-30 06:58AM | 0 recs
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Re: Kilgore's fundraising goal, extended deadline
I could have sworn I got a similar letter from Kaine also. I wouldn't think its unusual for candidates to extend their fundraising deadline..they need extra money all the time. I guess I don't see that it implies much
by dantata 2005-09-30 07:03AM | 0 recs
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Re: The tale between two candidates...
After September 30th, the last campaign filing deadline before the election, contributions (and attemps to get contributions) normally decline.  

I've been on local, state, and national campaign lists for 15 years.  I cannot recall another candidate extending a campaign goal into the October timeframe.  

   

by Bill Felmlee 2005-09-30 07:28AM | 0 recs
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Re: The tale between two candidates...
Well..in that case I'll take your word for it then
by dantata 2005-09-30 08:04AM | 0 recs
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His new ad
has Mark Warner in it. That will certainly help.
by jj32 2005-09-30 07:30AM | 0 recs
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THe MO has come from real work
Where has the MO come from?  
  1. the more Virginia Democrats step up to help Democrats in local elections, results for the top of the ticket improve

  2. Governor Mark Warner has started "showing the flag" in those areas without a local standard barer (43 of 100 delegate races)  The more he does the better the results

  3. Tim Kaine, Leslie Byrne and Creigh Deeds are becoming better known to the voters of Virginia,through grassroots support

  4. the polls indicate clearly that the more each Democrat helps the campaign, the more positive the outcome looks for November 8th.  

http://www.kaine2005.org
by odonnell2006 2005-10-02 06:58PM | 0 recs

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