Broadband Demographics

This could be one of the reasons the blogosphere skews heavily to the left in terms of total audience:Leichtman Research Group, Inc., in their updated report, Broadband, Cable and DBS Across the US 2005, found that at the beginning of 2005 broadband penetration of households in the US stood at close to 29% nationwide. Significant state-by-state disparities in broadband penetration remain, however. While these disparities are largely related to variations in household income across the states, these differences are strikingly similar to the state-by-state splits in the 2004 presidential election.

  • Eight states had broadband penetration over 35% - all voted for John Kerry in 2004

  • Eleven states had broadband penetration at or below 20% - all voted for George Bush in 2004

  • Cumulative broadband penetration in states that voted for Kerry was 33% - compared to 25% in states that voted for Bush
The blogosphere is dominated by the creative class, which I have always suspected tilts to the left (though more in the way Howard Dean does than in the way FDR did). Then again, rich people in blue states voted for Bush in large numbers as well, so this data might not be as telling as it appears to be at first. As the study itself notes, income is a far greater determination of whether someone has broadband or not than whether they live in a blue state or red state.

Actually, I bet the relative youth of the blogopshere plays just as much a role in the reason for why it has shifted left as anything else. Our current crop of youngsters is, on average, a lot more liberal than the Baby Boomers. With post-Boomers making up roughly half of all blog readership, it is not entirely surprising that the internet is fertile ground for progressives.

Tags: Demographics (all tags)

Comments

26 Comments

young people are almost always more left than
older ones.  So were the baby boomers when they were young.  no surprise there
by sck5 2005-09-29 10:03AM | 0 recs
Re: young people are almost always more left than
That not true. Regan did very well among people under 25 in 1984--it was his second best age group. In 1988, Dukakis did best among those 60 and over. 65 and over was also Clinton's bet group. Carter also did very pporly among 18-21 voters.

That old narrative isn't true.

by Chris Bowers 2005-09-29 10:58AM | 0 recs
Good job Chris
The question is where did the "conventional wisdom" come from? My grandpappy is a hardcore New Deal democrat, all his children are rightwingers of varying shades of red. All his grandchildren are varying shades of blue. There may be a pendulum or rebellious dynamic rather than an "as you grow older you get more cranky" phenomena.

My guess is that the boomers are just bad people, probably because they were the first generation to grow up under the threat of nuclear annihilation.

by Paul Goodman 2005-09-29 04:34PM | 0 recs
Re: Good job Chris
In general I have noticed the following trends.

WWII Generation (1900-25) - New Deal Democrats
Silent Generation (1926-45) - Moderates
Early Boomers (1946-53) - Mixed: Both ultra conservative and ultra liberal. This is the generation that fights the "culture wars", which is really an extention of the Vietnam War.
Late Boomers (1954-64) - Reaganites
Gen-X (1965-80) - libertarians

It is hard to say where the youngest generation (Millennials) will fall. Polls have tracked them as personally more conservative than their boomer parents, however, they were the strongest voting block for the Democrats in 2004.

by wayward 2005-09-29 05:15PM | 0 recs
Re: Good job Chris
I think your analogy is right on.  I just wish more   libertarian ideas where excepted by the dems. Us capital "L" Liberals are a strong force which has been courted by the right since Bush I lost.  Bush II hasn't exactly lived up to his small government promises.

My guess the youngest generation are growing up more conservative.  Let is just how the pendulum goes.

by Classical Liberal 2005-09-29 07:38PM | 0 recs
Re: Good job Chris
libertarians/classical Liberals probably account in the swing in younger voters (Gen-Xers) from 1996 to 2000 to 2004.

Clinton was more libertarian than Dole. Dole was famous for backing tax increases, and was seen as a big Government Republican. Dole's record is one reason why he couldn't gain traction attacking Clinton for raising taxes.

On the other hand, Gore and Lieberman were hardly libertarian. Both were seen as being pro-censorship. Also, Bush's record as Governor of Texas was more moderate than his record as President. So many in this same age group voted for Bush.

In 2004, Bush had passed so many Big Government, Big Brother policies that the libertarian voter was more likely to vote for Kerry.

by wayward 2005-09-30 05:20AM | 0 recs
Re: Good job Chris
wayward, I think you've nailed it.

Young people are a LOT more libertarian than their parents.

Given a choice between a Democrat who spends too much and a Republican who spends too much and wants to tell people how to live their lives, they will vote for the Democrat.

Since young people are generally not in high tax brackets, freedom on social issues takes on added importance to them.

Hillary should take this lesson to heart and stop worrying about video games to kiss up to social conservatives -- they're never going to vote for her anyway.

 

by Lex 2005-09-30 12:33PM | 0 recs
Re: Good job Chris
Even more conservative young people, at least those I know, have no desire to fight the "culture wars". These people may choose to live a very conservative lifestyle, but have little desire for Government to make other people do the same. I would consider myself part of this group.

Interestingly enough, the least "moral" young people I know are also the biggest hardcore Republicans. But that shouldn't surprise anyone here at MyDD.

by wayward 2005-09-30 05:12PM | 0 recs
Good stuff, Chris.
I think this may be one of the underpinnings for a phenomenon that I've observed:  things that are a consensus among Democrats in the blogosphere aren't nearly so obvious, nearly so much a consensus when you move to the real world.

I've seen this on at least a dozen issues.  And then  the blogosphere gets outraged when the reality check comes in because all the shared premises and predicates said otherwise.

by InigoMontoya 2005-09-29 10:12AM | 0 recs
The Missing Real World
How do you explain the lack of African Americans and other minorities who vote liberally on Democratic issues not presently not well represented on blogs and even the low income voterswho agree and vote for "left" leaning issues that are also not currently represented on the blogs....this can be extraploated to include women also.

So it seems that this "golden ghetto" (as Al From likes to call the Dean Blogosphere) of rich white boys seem to lean "left" even without the aid of the traditional "REAL WORLD" liberal constituents.

by Parker 2005-09-29 10:23AM | 0 recs
Re: The Missing Real World
As one of those handful of non-white woman blogger who began writing on the "digital divide" years ago, I agree the broadband demographics are probably more complex than they seem.

To address the original proposition, however, this may be a chicken v. egg problem.  Perhaps rural Red-Staters more likely to vote Red because they do not have access to the variety of source material high-speed internet access offers.  

As a person with extensive "field" campaign experience, I'm currently mulling over this issue from a operative's perspective.  Much of the use of technology in political campaigns now depends upon high-speed internet access, both for reaching out to potential voters, as well as the logistics of running a campaign.  So how to run your technology dependent campaign in areas beyond the DSL beltway?

So I'm writing a white paper as I sit here on the beach in Cape Hatteras (planning our move to Katrina areas) on the potential uses of high-speed mobile satellite internet.  Essentially, a field office in a box, providing low-cost wireless internet and VoIP cabability set up in less than an hour, versus the days, or even weeks, (not to mention money) it takes to get phone and internet in remote areas with targeted populations.  Pair the mobile satellite with a trailer, and you have a mobile campaign office, which you can to take to your volunteers and/or potential financial supporter/voters, rather than requiring them to trek to their nearest field office.  Anyway, I can't go into more detail, as the kids are clamoring to head out.  But I'll hopefully finish it soon, and make it available to anyone I know who wants it.

by MBW 2005-09-29 11:02AM | 0 recs
Re: The Missing Real World
"Perhaps rural Red-Staters more likely to vote Red because they do not have access to the variety of source material high-speed internet access offers."
-----------------
Not likely.  If they did get high speed Internet service, they would be visiting WorldNetDaily, not MyDD.
by Lex 2005-09-30 12:36PM | 0 recs
Re: The Missing Real World
Even with those underrepresentations, the blogosphere is considerably more Left than the Democratic party as a whole.  And you can't even assume that all African American Democrats are as liberal as, say, Maxine Waters.

Blogsophere >> Primary Voters >> General Election Voters

I'd bet $100 that the mirror image is true on the Right.

by InigoMontoya 2005-09-29 04:56PM | 0 recs
Ah, Baby Boomers...
Weren't those the ones who had great rock, great sex, great weed, great ... well everything so much greater than us, poor GenXer dorks? And now, they vote for George W Bush and go all fundie Christian on us ..

Sorry to stocke the fires of inter-generational warfare, but we little genXers need to find a way, despite adverse demographics, to screw the baby-boomers around, make them pay for their fair share of the public debt (pretty much all of it) and their own health care (the one they wouldn't pay for our (genXer's) parents).

Once, we had the Greatest Generation. Now we have the Lamest Generation.
by Fifi 2005-09-29 10:59AM | 0 recs
Re: Ah, Baby Boomers...
As someone who straddles both generations (I was born at the end of the baby boom but my wife and friends are Gen Xers) I couldn't agree more!!!
by John Mills 2005-09-29 11:54AM | 0 recs
Re: Ah, Baby Boomers...
The problem is that there aren't enough Gen-Xers to do that.
by wayward 2005-09-30 05:07AM | 0 recs
It's an urban/rural thing
Urban areas vote for Democrats.

Rural areas vote for Republicans.

Urban areas are much more likely to have broadband access than rural areas.

Therefore, areas with high amounts of broadband users will vote for Democrats.

by Geotpf 2005-09-29 12:21PM | 0 recs
Re: It's an urban/rural thing
I said as much on my blog.

This is pretty bad research to hang your hat on.

http://www.ataridemocrat.com/2005/09/stupid-broadband-research-tricks.html

by The Victory Fund 2005-09-29 12:36PM | 0 recs
Re: It's an urban/rural thing
Yeah, it's just population density.  Broadband is available where there are denser population centers.  Democrats tend to live in denser population centers.
by fwiffo 2005-09-29 01:29PM | 0 recs
Re: It's an urban/rural thing
The urban-rural divide is probably one of the most underestimated facts of life in popular political discussions.   There's a "through the looking glass" contrast on perceptions, issues, and basic assumptions where each side looks pretty alien to the other.

From my (admittedly biased) point of view, rural folks don't get a) a realistic view of minorities and b) a sense of interdependence that city dwellers pick up almost subconsciously.   Play your radio in the country as loud as you want...play it that loud in the city and 19 people will yell "Turn it down" and the 20th will open fire.  

Going in the other direction, what seems [to me] to be a common sense approach to guns in the city is a complete non-starter in rural and small-town areas.  I've come to the conclusion that being allowed local regulation is about the best we can hope for.

by InigoMontoya 2005-09-29 02:43PM | 0 recs
Re: It's an urban/rural thing
It's more than just guns.

Take the "housing bubble". Cheap interest rates have made home loans more affordable.

In rural and exurban areas, land is cheap and people build houses. This policy helps families because more people can afford a home. Housing prices rise slightly, but once interest is calculated in, monthly payments do not.

In urban areas, all the land is taken, and prices skyrocket. Those who have houses benefit, but those who don't are either shut out of the market, or are paying exhorbitant prices for homes.

In urban areas, gas taxes may pay for mass transit and keep cars of the roads. In rural areas, gas taxes make it more expensive to do your job.

In urban areas, laws have to be enacted that may encroach on people's liberties so that everyone can get along. In rural areas, people have the space to do a lot of what they want.

As someone who grew up in a small Southern city, I have plenty of experience with minorities. (Not that we don't have racial problems, but the South is much more integrated than many non-Southerners think.) However, the lifestyle of a rural, Southern, African-American is considerably different that that of most urban minorities.

For years, urban American has made policy, and rural America has dealt with it. To rural America, the Republican "revolution" is in large part about payback.

Unfortunately, they don't realize how much Republican policies hurt them as well.

by wayward 2005-09-29 05:35PM | 0 recs
Re: It's an urban/rural thing
Good point about housing.  There are other effects to:  the people who have had rapidly appreciating housing can do things like send their kids to expensive colleges by drawing on a fraction of the equity; the same kid in a small town/rural environment is SOL financially, all other factors being equal.

I'll disagree somewhat about the minority thing, though.  A lot of the country is two-dimensional:  black/white or occasionally brown/white.   But a lot of the larger cities are much more diverse.  I used to live where, within a ten minute drive, I could show you storefront signs in English, Spanish, Chinese, Japanese, Korean, Russian, Hebrew, Farsi....   I think places like NYC, LA, San Francisco, etc. are often experienced as being weird to someone from Milwaukee or Memphis.

 

by InigoMontoya 2005-09-29 06:32PM | 0 recs
Re: It's an urban/rural thing
Agreed. Rural areas do not have the diversity that major cities do.

I think I misunderstood your earlier comment. There ARE rural areas in the country that are almost 100% white, but other areas are not.

My point was that even in rural areas that are not 100% white, the experience of rural white people with minorities is not the same as the experience of urban white people with minorities.

by wayward 2005-09-30 05:13AM | 0 recs
Re: It's an urban/rural thing
I think we're pretty much in agreement.  Is that allowed in the blogosphere?
by InigoMontoya 2005-09-30 09:49AM | 0 recs
Re: It's an urban/rural thing
With Republican legislatures opening the state university system of some of these rural states to the free market, it make the problem even worse.

At my alma mater, Clemson University, in-state tution has more than doubled since fall 1998. (Yes, there are now "lottery scholarships" for in-state students, but a $5,000 scholarship on $8,000 of tuition isn't an improvement over $3,000 tuition with no scholarship.) Out-of-state tuition has gone up by the same dollar amount, but not by the same percentage.

South Carolinians increasingly cannot afford to go to Clemson. Since our public schools are notoriously inadequate in many areas, many South Carolinians can't even get in. Clemson has been filled with out-of-state students. If it were not for Thomas Clemson's will stating that 70% of the students MUST be from SC, it would be even worse.

The housing market also affects rural areas in that it allows people from urban areas to sell a modest home and retire to a mansion in a rural area for the same price. In many areas, the local people cannot afford the best land and are shut out of the top of the real estate market. In other areas, they are shut out of it altogether.

by wayward 2005-09-30 05:30AM | 0 recs
Here's my theory
Democrats and other lefties who are more fed up with the way things are currently are more likely to start a blog or a diary or something online to speak out about it.  If you're a Republican, you're gonna be happier with the way things are currently, and nobody starts up a blog to say "Things are great!  Check back tomorrow" every day.

Perhaps if Democrats were in power, the balance of power online would be a little more in the right wing's favor.

by a517dogg 2005-09-29 12:43PM | 0 recs

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