Germany holds election, outcome unsure, but pollsters fail

by Jerome Armstrong, Sun Sep 18, 2005 at 12:27:40 PM EDT

The polls sure got it wrong, that's for sure. They all vastly overstated the strength of conservative Angela Merkel's CDU/CSU party, by 6-8%. Not even close to the margin of error. Forsa, FGW, TNS Emnld, Allensbach, Infratest. They all polled the conservative Merkel's CDU/CSU party getting between 41-43 percent. Not even close. Here's the approx. tally from the exit polls out:

Merkel's CDU/CSU            35
Schroeder's SPD             34
Lib Free Democrats FDP      10
Left Party PDS               8.5
Greens                       8.1

Schroeder failed with the Greens to get above 50%, bringing the end of the Red-Green ruling partners. Merkel failed, with the business-friendly SDP, to get near 50%, so the only shot Merkel has at forming a majority is with Schroeder's SDP, but Schroeder has rejected that coalition offer, or perhaps with the Greens joining Merkel and the FDP.

CNN has a listing of the possible coalitions. The possibility for Schroeder in maintaining his position as the German chancellor is either having the FDP join the Red-Green coalition, but the FDP ruled that out; or the PDS leftists (a combination defectors from the Social Democratic Party and former East German Communists), but Schroeder ruled that out.

I don't see how the Greens would join Merkel, so that seems unlikely. That brings us back to a CDU/CSU and SDP alliance, probably without Merkel in the picture. The other possibility is that the SPD and the breakaway PDS put their differences behind them, and with the Greens form a +50% ruling coalition.

Update: The Forsa institute says both parties were now tied at 222 seats; that the Social Democrats will have the same number of seats in parliament as the conservative opposition Christian Democrats, out of"299 seats half of the 598-seat Bundestag chamber. The second vote decides the allocation of the other 299 seats via the state lists using a proportional system of calculation."

Update: Here's the preliminary official election returns:

CDU/CSU:    35.2
SPD:        34.3
FDP:         9.8
Left Party:  8.7
Greens:      8.1

Tags: Foreign Elections (all tags)

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I'm not familiar with the German Partys

Who is running and what partys and witch is more Liberal.

by Liberal 2005-09-18 12:54PM | 0 recs

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Re: I'm not familiar with the German Partys

(Right to left):
National Democratic Party(NDP): A Nationalist / Fascist organization that is in coalition Germans People's Unions. They are not expected to enter Parliament.
Christian Social Union(CSU): The Bavarian form of the Christian Democratic Union(CDU), and is considered more conservative than their national counter-parts.
Christian Democratic Union(CDU): The "Rightwing" conservative party, which is closest to the Republican Party in the United States, though not as extreme.
Freedom Democratic Party(FDP): The Free-Market Liberal party. This party resembles closest to our Libertarian Party, although more socially conservative. They are strongly laissez-faire and pro-business, and are CDU/CSU's traditional coalition partners.
Social Democratic Party(FDP): Part of "Socialist International", is the center-left party headed by Schroeder, who values the welfare state of Germany. However, similar to Tony Blaire's Labour party, he has shifted the party to the center-right for increased electoral success and economic reform(easing up the burdened welfare system).
Green Party / Alliance '90(Greens): SDP's main coalition partner, espouses similar but perhaps more leftwing economic policies than the SDP, and is committed to the environment much.
Left Party(Left): In a coalition with the former east German Communist Party, the PDS(Party of Democratic Socialism), and the new Labor and Social Justice Party (the "WASG"), they represent the spectrum of the extreme leftwingers, the leftwingers dissatisfied with Labor Reform of Schroeder, and other leftwingers.

Clearly, the best coalition in our views would be continuing the Red-Green Alliance of the SDP and the Greens and adding in the Left Party, slowing down Schroeder's Labor reforms instead perhaps streamlining them. This would make it a "Red-Red-Green" alliance.

The solution of the FDP going into coalition wih the SDP and Greens, is not a bad idea either, and would surely be better than a "Grand Coalition" or the greens becoming part of a coalition with the Christian Democrats.

by KainIIIC 2005-09-18 01:14PM | 0 recs

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Re: I'm not familiar with the German Partys

Thank you.

by Liberal 2005-09-18 01:15PM | 0 recs

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Re: I'm not familiar with the German Partys

Also, here's a reminder. The word "Liberal" outside of the United States usually means a "Centrist" party, or in some cases like the FDP, a right-wing economically based party. One except is the Canadian party, which flirts with the leftwing NDP to acheive iniatives.

That's why I dislike calling people "Liberal".

by KainIIIC 2005-09-18 01:19PM | 0 recs

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Careful

I'm not sure how many would agree with your view that a coalition between the SPD, the Greens, and the Left would be the best outcome. The Left is constituted of partially-reformed communists and is committed to preventing all economic reforms. A Christian Democrat-led government wouldn't be the end of the world for sure, especially if having the SPD or the Greens as a coalition partner moderated their neoliberal tendencies. As for me, I'm happy with any government in which the Greens are a coalition partner.

by lorax 2005-09-18 02:20PM | 0 recs

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let's hear it for "Jamaica"

The biggest problem facing Germany right now is an overregulated and inflexible labor market. New employees bring with them huge nonlabor costs and are extremely difficult to fire (even with cause), which means that companies are loath to hire them in the first place. This has kept unemployment high and the German economy in the doldrums relative to the rest of Europe. The main reason this problem has persisted for so long is the priority many German voters place on "Sicherheit"-- safety, security, stability, etc.

Of the five parties that will be represented in parliament, the "Left" party is against reform from top to bottom (as pointed out by lorax) and would be a disaster in government. The FDP and the Greens represent the pro-reform end of the spectrum (despite their somewhat woolly origins, today's Green party has a very responsible attitude towards economics). The SPD and CDU/CSU are ambivalent about reform. Schroeder himself has been pro-reform, but has been unable to bring the rest of the SPD and its supporters along (in fact, internal strife on this issue precipitated the current election). The CDU/CSU is more pro-business than pro-market; Merkel, although vague on details, seems to be more pro-market than the rest of her party (and almost certainly than any member of the CDU/CSU boys' club that would love to depose her).

Given this background, my hope is for a CDU/CSU + FDP + Green government (with Merkel as Chancellor) that will hold together for long enough to push through needed reforms. (The black, yellow, and green of these parties' colors explain this possible coalition's nickname of "Jamaica". I have also seen it referred to as "Schwampel"-- the "Ampel" = stoplight coalition of the SPD/FDP/Greens, but with SPD red replaced by CDU/CSU "schwarz" = black.) Interestingly, this configuration is attracting a significant plurality of support in an online poll being run by Die Welt: http://www.welt.de/extra/service/128201.html?vote=1&poll_qid=777815&poll_aid=4&x=27& y=7

by Expat Texan 2005-09-18 09:15PM | 0 recs

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Re: let's hear it for "Jamaica"

No, I can't trust Merkel after here meddling during the Iraq War, writing op-eds in the WSJ.

Personally, I agree that Germany needs reform, but I think Merkel would have done things in a way that would not have respected the social safety net. I think Scroeder would be much better in this regard, but I agree he leads a divided party in this regard, although the Linke Party split partially has solved this problem already.

To me, a continued SPD-Green coalition would be the best. Failing that, the "traffic light" scenario appeals, but I don't think this is likely, and neither is the "Jamaica" scenario you envision, because apparently the FDP and the Greens are at odds over core issues.

What is really seeming unavoidable at this point is a "grand coalition" with new elections fairly soon. I'd like to see Schroeder lead it, but if not, I'd like to see a leader who is not Angela Merkel front the CDU, which seems not unlikely at this point in time. I think the consensus seems to be - within the CDU - that they ran a poor campaign, and Merkel was largely to blame.

Ben P

by Ben P 2005-09-19 12:00AM | 0 recs

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Jamaica

I think a Jamaica coalition is both the most desirable and the most likely outcome. Economic reforms would continue, but the Greens would moderate the CDU's negative tendencies on the environment and on foreign policy while remaining flexible on the reforms. Apparently Joschka Fischer and Angela Merkel are open to this idea, but the FDP leader, Guido Westerwelle, is against this prospect.

I also think we cannot discount the importance of having a woman lead one of the world's most powerful countries. We need more women in leadership positions worldwide, even if they lean right.

by lorax 2005-09-19 08:00AM | 0 recs

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Re: I'm not familiar with the German Partys

It should be noted that, at least traditionally, the CDU tended to be, for a 'conservative' party, to be quite to the left on economic issues. Their traditional stance is quite similar to that of the stereotypical american catholic--willing to accept a social safety net, but in opposition to the "weakeaning" of moralistic-type legislation. The FDP used to be quite to the right of the CDU on economic issues.

Before the rise of the Greens (and the entry of the former East German Communist successor party into German politics) in the late 80s/early 90s, this gave any two of the three parties common ground, and all combinations of CDU,SPD,FDP have joined in coalitions with each other in postwar germany.

by Valatan 2005-09-18 09:21PM | 0 recs

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Re: I'm not familiar with the German Partys

I dont want to disappoint Americans, but the German political spectrum is far left to yours. The Democrats would be a right wing party.

Maybe this sets a bit the frame. A left-left-green party coalition would be way out to the left.

Btw: Social Democrats is abbreviated SPD (Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands).

by Nfmungard 2005-09-18 11:08PM | 0 recs

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Not so much.

btw, yeah, excuse me for the SDP mis-abbreviation(I don't think I repeated).

http://www.digitalronin.f2s.com/politicalcompass/germany2005.php

It is true, that the SDP and to some extent the Greens have both shifted to the right, while the CDU has dramatically shifted to the right. At this point in time, the Shroeder's ideololgy within the SDP would be similar to our Democrats.

That being said, not only has the former PDS been moderating itself after its failure in 2002, but it ran in coalition with more left-wing members of the former SDP, including the former chairman of the SDP itself, Oskar Lafontaine. One thing this election displays to us is that the economically rightward shift of the SDP has made it unpopular towards its leftwing members, causing a good 4% of the party to vote for the Left party.

A Red-Red-Green coalition in truth would probably not be that radical, although many of Shroeder's much wanted Labor reform laws would need to be hedged down to appease the Left (Think, making the welfare state "smarter" while costing less). One major problem is that his reforms have done very little at all to help out the economy.

by KainIIIC 2005-09-19 01:57PM | 0 recs

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Re: Not so much.

I think your linked diagram greatly misses the point. It is not very helpful for non-Germans (=Americans) as references to Republicans and Democrats are missing. Taken for itself one might belief that CDU and Republicans have much in common. And I greatly doubt that. Also the notion that the SPD is more to the right than the Greens seems absurd. The Greens are a party for those who are well-off. Every voter statistic shows that. The great discussions concerning the reforms of Schröder were in the SPD, not the Greens.

Concerning your own posting I have to disagree on several accounts, too:

-To imply that the CDU is far right is ridiculous. No party in Germany wants to abolish public health insurance, elderly care insurance, unemployment insurance or welfare alltogether. Basically we are talking about retooling. One of the most "radical" ideas of the CDU is to have a fixed rate health insurance for everybody (@150€ a month with tax deducations for the poor). Show me any Republican in support of that. The only "far right" (=Republican) position was the flat tax proposal. But: This was not the position of the party, but only of the nominee for finance minister. Just today he withdrew his nomination.

-The SPD and the Democrats are not one of kind. This is a party that still carries proudly the word "Social" and where party members are greeted as "Genosse". If you compare the social system to anything you ever had in the U.S. or anything John Kerry (also refered to as the senator with one of the most liberal voting records) proposed you would not even come close to positions of the CDU.

-Talking about the PDS/Die Linke (The Left) I wonder what you are talking about. The PDS has remade itself?! The PDS (the post communists for that matter) does not take any realistic positions. I mean, it is always entertaining to watch Oskar Lafontaine and Gregor Gysi, who are both smart and gifted speakers. But: This is a party that is not willing to face up to the grim reality of Germany. They believe that everything can stay the way it is. And btw: If you care to visit their discussion forum click http://forum.pds-online.de/phpBB2/viewtopic.php?t=2867. The subject of the discussion is the transition for market economy to plan economy.

-And finally on the "dream coalition". First of all, it wont happen. The SPD, the Greens, and the PDS all have unanimoulsy desclared that there will be no coalition talks. Secondly, it would be useful to explain a bit the status quo before judging whether labor market reforms are due or not:

The hot question is labeled Hartz IV. The PDS is for repealing Hartz IV completely, because they label it as unsocial. Hartz IV unified the two welfare systems available to the longterm unemployed (>1,5 years). Before there was "Sozialhilfe" and "Arbeitslosenhilfe". Sozialhilfe was granted based on need (basically the existence minimum). Arbeitslosenhilfe was granted based on former income (around 50%). The imho perverse result was, that we had a welfare system were a longterm unemployed former manager received more money than his also longterm unemployed former secretary, because he had had a higher income several years ago. Also, Arbeitslosenhilfe did not demand that you touch your own reserves meaning you could own substantial assets while receiving a welfare contribution.

With the changes of Hartz IV we have, imho, a bit more common sense. After Arbeitslosengeld 1, the unemployment insurance, runs out (1-1,5 years after loss of job) you can demand Arbeitslosengeld 2, which is a welfare contribution. While Arbeitslosengeld 1 is related to your last income, Arbeitslosengeld 2 is based on need. If you have a partner who is able to pay for you or you have substantial assets you will not receive any money. Additionally, you will only receive the existence minimum.

Still, there is substantial need for reforms. The basic problem of the German labor market is the low qualified workforce. If they work, they barely make money than on welfare. This is worsened as they "lose" 33% of their income to social insurances. Something like a reverse income tax is an idea discussed in Germany.

by Nfmungard 2005-09-20 06:43AM | 0 recs

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So nice to see the media get egg on its face

The Lies Angeles Times pulled out all the stops for Merkel in its editorials and biased reporting. It's so nice to see those liars winding up with egg on their faces!

by Joe Bacon 2005-09-18 01:08PM | 0 recs

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uh anyone?

by Liberal 2005-09-18 01:14PM | 0 recs

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German Parties

Are the people who received 3.9% of the vote the National Democrats? I have found only German-language web pages (which I can largely read) but the Party name was different, and it appeared that they were different people.

by phillies 2005-09-18 06:23PM | 0 recs

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Re: German Parties

3.9% probably represents the combined votes of all small parties ("others"). Of these, the National 'Democrats' (In fact, the only occurence of the term 'democracy' in any of the NPD's official publications is in the name of the party!) received 1.6%, which makes them the 'largest' of the small parties, but far away from gaining a seat in the parliament.

Which is, IMHO, the most comforting aspect of this election. Given their recent success in some state elections, I feared that they might get much more votes than they actually got.

by markusle 2005-09-20 03:21AM | 0 recs

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The pre-election polls failed, but the exit polls

did very well, within half a percentage point of the official result. I posted a diary with the numbers at kos. The BBC exit poll for the UK election in May was also very accurate.

There are probably a number of things that these organizations do that Edison Mitofsky did not. For example, I know that NOP/MORI sampled over 20,000 voters, compared to the National Election pool for America'a 2004 election, which, I think sampled 13-14,000 voters.

The point is, if our own exit polls emulate the methodology used in these countries, the next time there is a discrepancy between the exit poll and the official result, the exit poll will be much harder to dismiss.

by sean in iowa 2005-09-18 07:37PM | 0 recs

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Is there a possibility of

a non-majority coalition, where, say, the FDP agrees to not vote for a motion of no confidence in the government, but at the same time, does not enter into government? Does Germany require an active vote of confidence in order for the parties to form a government?

by Valatan 2005-09-18 09:15PM | 0 recs

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I'm not German but.....

I do follow German politics quite closely. Strictly from a strategic viewpoint, Angela Merkel lost the election for the CDU (weirdly I think Stoiber might have done better if given another go). Schroeder is like Bill Clinton times 100!!!! I mean, who in the western world could fight back from a 20+% deficit to tie with the opposition, with an economy worse than the malaise we had under Jimmy Carter in 1980. I mean this guy is either the luckiest politician in Europe or the damn smartest campainger ever to have walked the face of the earth.

Nevertheless, my fondness for Schroeder notwithstanding, I think Germany needs serious market reforms, targeted tax cuts and labor law chanages and Schroeder has had his chance yet the CDU/CSU are partly to blame for this mess. Helmut Kohl was worse than Schroder during his 16 yr reign and Germany went from bad to worse economically. If I were a CDU/CSU pol, I'd not want to come into a grand coalition because it won't last and one led by Merkel will fail because they can't implement their program and the SPD would regroup quickly and probably beat them next time (especially if Schroeder remains party leader).
In summary, the CDU/CSU should dump Merkel in favor of a more dynamic politician, let Schroeder's government limp for 1-2 yrs to the next election and beat him then. None of the reforms will work between now and then anyway (change comes slowly), so why risk all that now with no mandate to govern. Incidentally, a future election might make the FDP stronger at the expense of the Greens thus making a more center-right governing coalition more palatable to Germany. But then again, I'm not German so.....

by dantata 2005-09-19 08:53AM | 0 recs

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I am German, and ...

The success of Schroeder's SPD (i.e. preventing a more devestating defeat) is not so much a miracle, but mostly a result of the differences between public opinion and published opinion.

On a personal level, many people like Schroeder, even if they dislike his policies (and the Greens have served him well as scapegoat for unpopular decisions). The media, however, are constantly shifting between admiring and despising him. In recent month, even many progressive papers have written him off as a lame duck and commented about his 'legacy'. The real miracle is that large parts of the electorate refused to let the media confuse them.

While I certainly would have preferred a red-green victory, I am quite optimistic about the long-term effects of this election. This is the third election in a row with the CDU/CSU under 40% - something that would have been unthinkable back in the 70s or 80s.

by markusle 2005-09-20 03:58AM | 0 recs