Roberts Blog, Preview Thread
by Chris Bowers, Mon Sep 12, 2005 at 06:33:59 AM EDT
- NPR will be broadcasting the hearings gavel to gavel, as will C-SPAN.
- If you haven't read it yet, check out this excellent article on how the Chief Justice if different from the other eight Associate Justicies.
- Staying on public opinion for a bit, just like with Bush, the partisan gap on Roberts is a lot more interesting than the overall numbers.Time Poll conducted by Schulman, Ronca & Bucuvalas (SRBI) Public Affairs. Sept. 7-8, 2005. N=1,000 adults nationwide. MoE ± 3 (for all adults).
Confirm Not Confirm Unsure All 48 26 26 Dem 29 41 18 Ind 48 29 31 Rep 73 9 23I don't really care about the numbers for Republicans, since over the past four years they have shown that they will fall into lockstep with pretty much anything their leaders suggest. I am a lot more interested in pushing Democratic numbers to become at least a mirror of the Republican numbers. Ideally, Democrats would be even more unified.
Obviously, we are not going to get pretty much anywhere unless the numbers for Independents move, big time. Democratic gains over the past eight months have come almost entirely within Independents, and right now pretty much all of our potential successes are predicated upon maintaining those gains. In order for this to be an effective fight, Independents cannot remain equidistant from Dems and Reps.
- The polls on Roberts are starting to pile up. While Roberts still has a decent confirm / not confirm margin in most polls (the range is roughly +15 to +25, depending on the poll), he has not had a majority in favor of his confirmation since he was nominated for Chief Justice. In fact, public opinion favoring his confirmation has eroded significantly since late July:
Poll Date Confirm / Not Confirm Margin News 9/9 +20 Time 9/8 +22 CBS 9/7 +25 Pew 9/7 +16 Fox 8/31 +24 CBS 8/31 +17 Gallup 8/7 +23 News 8/4 +23 Fox 7/27 +31 Gallup 7/24 +37 ABC 7/21 +36With the exception of CBS, slowly but surely, the margin is dropping.
- Roberts will try to make the case that he is replacing Rehnquist, not O'Conner. This will include noting that he was first contacted by the White House in April, and by noting that O'Conner is still on the Supreme Court. Despite the obvious fact that he was nominated while Rehnquist was still on the court, considering how quickly Bush changed Roberts' nomination to chief justice, I am at least willing to grant that the White House was clearly fixed on Roberts as the next chief justice before Rehnquist passed.