What To Look For Tonight

by Chris Bowers, Tue Aug 02, 2005 at 10:37:25 AM EDT

The final action has been posted. Once you take it, cross your fingers, say a prayer, and get ready for the returns. We have done everything we cold possibly do. The die is cast. What will tonight's results mean?

Here are my thoughts, which have not changed much:

Even if he [Hackett] loses, which remains the most likely outcome, the Hackett campaign has turned a corner of Ohio a little more purple, which in turn turns the state and the nation a little more blue. We have drained money from Republicans nationally, spread our message to one of the reddest parts of the country, and identified numerous activists to help keep up the fight in the future. That is a huge success. That is called building a party from the ground up. That is a fifty-state strategy. That is ending the scourge of the uncontested. Stuart Rothenberg may think I am clueless for supporting and encouraging stuff like this, and if he were the one talking to the grassroots about political strategy instead of bloggers, maybe the Paul Hackett phenomenon would never have happened. That, I think, would be a tragedy. If someone can't see the importance and the already achieved success of the Paul Hackett campaign, then they are the truly clueless.

Of course, if Hackett actually wins, then the flood-gates are open. Every Ohio Republican would be vulnerable. The long-awaited reversal of 1994 might finally be upon us.

My final prediction is going to be pessimistic, at least by blogosphere standards: 56-44 in favor of Schmidt. There just have been too many disappointing elections recently for me to expect more. I also think the final barrage of negative ads against Hackett, the Cincinnati Enquirer endorsement, and the basic demographic problems in this district will drag Hackett down. Had Hackett won the endorsement, I would be predicting at least 48% for him.

Charlie Cook says:

Bottom line: Schmidt, the Republican, is still favored to win the election, but don't rule out the possibility of an upset, given the vagaries of August special election voter turnout and the problems unique to Ohio this year. But even assuming a GOP win tonight, the margin of victory can give us some insight into just how radioactive the governor's troubles and the "time for a change" sentiment in the state will be for other Republicans in the Buckeye State next year. If Schmidt's victory margin is in double digits, this tells us that there is not much of an anti-GOP wind in Ohio right now. If the margin is say six to nine points for Schmidt, then there is a wind, but certainly no hurricane. A Schmidt win of less than five points should be a very serious warning sign for Ohio Republicans that something is very, very wrong, while a Hackett victory would be a devastating blow to the Ohio GOP. Responding to Cook, Tim Tagaris writes: Talk about lowering the bar for Ohio's Republican Party. To say that a 6 to 9 point spread is indicative of "wind but no hurricane" is ridiculous. Anything within 10, in a district that has gone recently gone Republican by more than fifty percentage points, shows the ship has already sunk for the Ohio Republican Party--they have until Nov. 2006 to salvage whatever wreckage they can.(...)

Whatever happens here, the big story is how the grassroots of the Democratic Party competed, outraised, and outmanned the NRCC. We forced them to blow a ton of money in a district that should have gone red by 50 points. This race is a complete validation of Howard Dean's 50 state strategy and our ability to compete in any race, at any level, in any location across the country.

The mere fact that the GOP D.C. re-enforcements have been called in at such a high level has got to be a major dissapointment to all "yellow elephants" across the country. This race should put all Democrats and Republicans statewide on notice. Bob Ney, we are coming for you. Ralph Regula, your seat is no longer safe. Steve LaTourette, we will remember your CAFTA flip-flop. It's a brand new ball-game, and it all started in OH-2--the last place anyone thought it would.

I think I agree with both Tim and Cook, if I can be a weasel for a moment. Tim is right--anything under ten is a huge success, and would be every statewide Republican on notice. However, if it is between six and nine, Republicans will still at least have something of a fighting chance in Ohio in 2006. Everyone is universally in agreement that if the margin in five or less, or even if Hackett wins, then the entire Ohio Republican Party is up a creek without a paddle. It's too bad that certain weak-willed newspaper boards don't have the guts to endorse change when change is so desperately needed.

You turn. I'll be back for the returns tonight.

Tags: House 2006 (all tags)

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I trust Ohioans about as much....

...as I trust Floridians. And I am a Floridian. After 2000 I thought Florida would be a shoe in for Kerry, but it wasn't even close. After that I decided I need to find a new state where the people weren't ignorant imbeciles. Ohio I view much the same way. Their economy suffered under Bush as they lost 250k jobs, yet they still thought he was worth a second chance.

Yeah, I know all about the voter machine problems, etc...save it. It shouldn't have even been close. Some states you just can't help.

by Vote Hillary 2008 2005-08-02 10:44AM | 0 recs

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Re: I trust Ohioans about as much....

Ohio & Florida are both diverse states, in different ways. Ohio has traditionally Republican rural areas, a pseudo-sunbelt city (Columbus), old industrial areas which are more like rustbelt sections of New England & New York (Cleveland, Youngstown), rustbelt towns with more Republican histories (Akron, Canton), and a very conservative metroplis where Jerry Springer, of all people, once did well (Cincinnati). You have white ethinics, a few pockes of Hispanics, and WASPs; you also have a conservativism that is often more open-minded than what you find in the Southeast. You can drag a midwesterner kicking & screaming to try something new and they might even like it. Things are much more hopeless in the South.

Florida has redneck regions, various Hispnaic communities, lots of transplants from New York & the Great Lakes, etc.

In both states, it's a matter of assembling the right pieces and knowing where the swing votes are.

by rich 2005-08-02 11:43AM | 0 recs

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Re: I trust Ohioans about as much....

Exactly. Ohio can be won as long as the Democrat slaughters the Republican in the northeast, wins decently in the middle, and holds down losses in the south. Kerry almost did this...he faltered when it came to the south.

Florida is actually not too hard either. Slaughter down south (Miami, Fort Lauderdale, Palm Beach), do well in the middle (Orlando, Tampa), hold down losses on the Gulf Coast and up north.

by raginillinoian 2005-08-02 12:56PM | 0 recs

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Re: I trust Ohioans about as much....

You both have far more faith than I. I tend to feel stupidity is self-propagating and contagious. Particularly in the Floribama panhandle.

by Vote Hillary 2008 2005-08-02 03:09PM | 0 recs

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HELP!

Chris:

Please email me about a problem that I am having with another participant who seems to have misunderstood my posting style and has gone off the deep end.

Thanks.

Pat Rogers
aahpat@verizon.net

by aahpat 2005-08-02 10:46AM | 0 recs

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FYI

You probably just gave your email address to about 100 bots that scour websites for them based on the @.com format. Good thing you're a solid supporter of free speech.

Should post next time like this: aahpatATverizonDOTnet, etc.

by Vote Hillary 2008 2005-08-02 10:52AM | 0 recs

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Re: FYI

Thanks.

My email address is posted at least a hundred times on my web pages and that of others.

I am kind of fatalistic about net security and evading the crap dispensers. Its impossible in the long run so I don't think about it much. The ISP spam filters will do what they can.

by aahpat 2005-08-02 01:01PM | 0 recs

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ROF, LMAO, OMG, ICB!

11:29am (Pacific time): "I am trying hard to NOT allow my emotions to dictate my rhetoric. But I grew up in South Philly and so that is a very hard effort for me. Please don't push. You would not appreciate my shove."

11:46am: "HELP!"

Yup. You're a bad, bad man.

by catastrophile 2005-08-02 01:48PM | 0 recs

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Chris is right...

And tomorrow we need to turn our attention to Virginia and New Jersey. The Statewide races in Virginia are all toss-ups right now and Dems have a good chance of picking up at least 2 seats in the General Assembly.

New Jersey is gonna stay blue but we gotta help with the margin of victory up there.

by sndeak 2005-08-02 10:54AM | 0 recs

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Why I Think Paul Will Win

I started writing how I thought this election would be very close either way and that I would predict his victory except I am so used to Republicans winning. Then I thought, "fuck it," write what you really think.

OK. I think PH is going to win. I say this not as some "doey eyed pie in the sky" person. As I said above, I have seen my candidates lose way more then win. But, looking at the race rationally, here is why I think PH will pull through.

In a low voter turnout, field work is very important. You have to (almost literally) drag your voters into the voting booths. Paul owns the field. And for what it is worth, I met some of the Hamilton County field coordinators over the weekend and they seemed top flight (way to go Demetrius, guys).
Democrats generically will be much more fired up then Republicans.
A much better candidate.
Roughly equal television buys down the stretch then the opposition. I think PH had more tv up then JS, but the Republican Party's buy was bigger then the Dems.
All of the scandals which have been so well documented here.
Bush fatigue.

We are going to achieve great congressional results in '06. It starts tonight.

by Andy Katz 2005-08-02 10:55AM | 0 recs

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Re: Why I Think Paul Will Win

Do we really know if Hackett has a stronger on-the-field army than Schmidt? Or is that just hopeful Democratic talk? I guess we'll know by the end of the night. I agree, though, that voter turnout being ridiculously low means that this race has upset potential. We'll assess the final results tonight, I hope I can get some exit poll results or some precinct numbers by 5 cause thats when I leave work here. I got my fingers crossed, but I'm gonna save the celebration/"it was a good run" til we know who won and by how much. Godspeed Paul!

by AC4508 2005-08-02 11:20AM | 0 recs

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Hackett W, GOP not sunk... yet

If Hackett wins, can we give some credit to the candidate and his campaign?

I'll predict a Hackett win and say the Buckeye GOP is not totally sunk... yet.

But the stage will be set for the other shoe to drop in Ohio. If Hackett wins and the bad news continues to flow, the GOP will need to cheat to stay in the game in 2006.

by Carl Nyberg 2005-08-02 11:01AM | 0 recs

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52 to 48

But I'm not sure which way that's gonna shake out. Also wanted to say thanks for all the hard work Chris. You, Bob and Tim have done a yeomans job over the last few days. IMO that has been THE key to keeping the netroots focus on the Hackett campaign. Hope we are all celebrating tonite.

by Demo Dan in Dayton 2005-08-02 11:02AM | 0 recs

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I'm going nuts with anticipation!

I'm here... pulling my hair out like Tweek from South Park.

Hackett has to win. Hackett has to win. Hackett has to win. If I said it three times it HAS to come true, doesn't it?

For me, this is the debut of the 50 State Strategy. Schmidt is such a poor candidate. Hackett is SO pimp. I have to see a 'W' here besides THAT W, or I 'm just gonna go CRAZY!!!!

by teknofyl 2005-08-02 11:04AM | 0 recs

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Forget the newspaper endorsement

Nobody pays any attention to who a newspaper publisher endorses -- often over the advice of the majority of his staff. In high-profile races, newspaper endorsements are negligible. It is only in lower-profile cases like judgeships or constable races that anyone looks to the paper for guidance.

Generally, it is an archaic tradition that ought to be discarded. It harks back to the era of machine politics.

by Quaoar 2005-08-02 11:18AM | 0 recs

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hehe

I think i'll just wait until tonight and no for real - so i wont make an ass out of my self predicting a narrow win for hackett - oops.

by Pounder 2005-08-02 11:24AM | 0 recs

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Don't want to jinx it, but school levies

are on the ballot in many of these counties and the rethugs hate school taxes. It could increase their numbers on this August dog-day.

Other Issues On The Ballot
There are several other issues on the ballot today for Tri-state voters.
In Hamilton County, Mt. Healthy voters have to decide on a road renewal.
The Three Rivers School Levy is also back on the ballot. An earlier levy was defeated in november.
In Warren County, the Franklin School levy is once again on the ballot.
Voters have turned that levy down in seven previous elections.
Also in Warren County's Harlan Towship, the fire levy is up for renewal.
And in Butler County, voters will decide on the Edgewood School levy. Voters turned down a previous levy in May.

Warren County would be full of swing voters (my best guess). Just my two cents to blow off some of the edge from waiting.

by bronte17 2005-08-02 11:35AM | 0 recs

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Charlie Cook responds to Tagaris

Tim Tagaris' attempt to set the bar for OH-02 at 50 percentage points based on Cong. Portman's re-election margins against token opponents is laughable, no serious student of elections (or professional political analyst) would attempt to do that.

That's why we at the Cook Political Report developed the Partisan Voting Index (PVI) which takes the two major party vote (another words excludes independents) for the 2000 and 2004 presidential election and measures the difference between the presidential election vote in those two combined elections and the country as a whole, in those two elections. Since different candidates for House, Senate, governor, etc are running in different districts, this is the only way to measure apples and apples.

Our PVI for Ohio's 2nd district is R+13, another words, Republican presidential candidates in 2000 and 2004 outperformed in that district the rest of the country by 13 percentage points. that makes it the second most Republican district in Ohio, and only four districts in the country have Democratic Members in districts with a PVI of 13 points or higher. Given the 13 point PVI, we think setting the bar as we did to be completely defensible.

by Charlie Cook 2005-08-02 11:52AM | 0 recs

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Re: Charlie Cook responds to Tagaris

just a style question, I always though it was "in other words"?

by Robert P 2005-08-02 11:59AM | 0 recs

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Re: Charlie Cook responds to Tagaris

To substance: If the Republicans have won this district 70-30 for the last four elections, why is 55-45 a respectible showing for them?

by Robert P 2005-08-02 12:00PM | 0 recs

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Re: Charlie Cook responds to Tagaris

Even with this explanation, the bar set by the Cook Political Report is ridiculous. A "double digit win" is 55-45 or better. But 55% only corresponds to a 5% PVI, or less then half of their usual margin in that district. So, how could that kind of showing not be taken to be a real sign of slippage?

I think the right standard based on Cook's past analysis is anything less then 60-40 (which corresponds to a 10% PVI using Cook's figures)shows some slippage, anything below 55-45 shows serious weakness and anything worse then 52.5-47.5 for the Rethugs is a disaster.

by Andy Katz 2005-08-02 01:04PM | 0 recs

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Tagaris Responds to Cook

Holy cow.

You didn't even read the entry. Claiming I attempted to set the bar at a 50 point spread is laugable. What did I actually do, move your bar five points to the left? Is that so ridiculous when you have a district that has a culture of voting (R) for U.S. Congress in overwhelming numbers for decades straight?

Serious question though:

How did your PVI measure up in Steve LaTourette's district in 2004? How about Jane Mitakides vs. Mike Turner? Ralph Regula vs. Jeff Seemann.

I don't subscribe to RC, so I am not sure whether or not it holds water in races that are on relative even financial footing, but I would be curious to know.

Another serious question:

How can you do an entire piece on OH-2 and not talk about the impact the netroots have had on the race? And I am not even talking about fundraising. Jean Schmidt's campaign manager completely missed what was going on online, but he is obviousy JV. How can you, and your reporter that was just on CNN an hour ago, completely miss that portion of the story as well?

by Tim Tagaris 2005-08-02 01:04PM | 0 recs

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Re: Tagaris Responds to Cook

Actually I did read the entry, it's just that how Portman did in races where he was essentially unopposed is totally irrelevant to anything, so the 50 point argument is totally specious. Unopposed and under-opposed races tell us nothing.

We have working with the PVI for years, either basing it on one single presidential election or the most recent two. We have found that if a district has a general tendency to go Republican, for example, by 13 points in a generic (presidential) race, any result just two or three points either way from that is not terribly significant. By breaking into single digits, that would indicate that something is going on.

Our PVI certainly does not predict the outcome of House races, no quantative measure can do that, it only provides a measurement of the general tilt to the district. LaTourette's district (OH-14) has a PVI of R+2, Turner is R+3, Regula is R+4, but since Democrats rarely mount serious races in recent years against those guys, it only suggests hypothetically what a decent, well-funded, well-organized candidate would do in a normal year. Our PVI is available both in state/district order and ranked from most Republican to most Democratic on our subscribers-only section of our Cookpolitical.com website.

And we did not do an entire piece on OH-02 without mentioning the impact of netroots, we said, "But, the growing influence of blog fundraising means thta party involvement has become less important," and go on to mention the Dean "Democracy for America" efforts.

Finally, while I did write a twice-weekly column for Roll Call for 12 years (1986-98), I moved my columns to National Journal/nationaljournal.com/CongressDailyAM seven years ago, and with a staff of four, we do the Cook Political Report (founded 1984), where we do the in-depth analysis of races for our subscribers.

by Charlie Cook 2005-08-02 01:48PM | 0 recs

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My pessimistic prediction

56-44% Schmidt win. I just don't have alot of faith, I've been disappointed too many times.

by ben114 2005-08-02 11:56AM | 0 recs

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Swing State Project website seems to be down

Anyone got any other ideas about getting any info of what's happening on the ground, how turnout looks, etc.?

by InigoMontoya 2005-08-02 12:30PM | 0 recs

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Senator Hackett?

Has any consideration been given to Hackett running for DeWine's seat in 2006? Isn't he the perfect guy for the job, assuming he doesn't go back to Iraq?

by RisingSign 2005-08-02 12:37PM | 0 recs

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Re: Senator Hackett?

Don't you think he should run for a 2nd term in the House?

Admittedly, I am from OK and have only seen a few clips of Hackett. Assuming he wins today, he's got the potential to be a strong House member for the Dems, and he's getting in just ahead of what i hope will be BIG new crop of Representatives, hopefully with a lot more fresh Democratoc faces than Republican ones!

I think Pelosi's smart enough to test Hackett out, see if he's got what it takes to be a leader in the rough-and-tumble House. She gets him on some committees that are appropriate to his message and personality, and cultivate some credentials.

Undoubtedly Hackett will be the darling of the netroots... I think keeping him in the House for a little bit wouldn't be a bad idea. If he's as good as he looks from the here and now, he's got a future in the coming Democraity majority.

by teknofyl 2005-08-02 12:52PM | 0 recs

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election

I haven't followed this issue closely enough to know if anyone from the Democratic side is monitoring the voting process. Are there Diebold machines involved? Is there any reason for us to believe that the tallies will be legitimate?

by global yokel 2005-08-02 01:00PM | 0 recs

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Chris:

Your absolutely right about the fifty state strategy. Especially in relation to hard contests like the Hacket race.

Just remember, win or lose Hacket gave the consumers an alternative. If Schmidt wins and later there comes a time for those consumers to question the decision between Hacket and Schmidt they will at least have that comparison to remember. An uncontested race would give them no alternatives to make their regrets more bitter and memorable. Bitter memories inspire change.

by aahpat 2005-08-02 01:05PM | 0 recs

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2 hours left

The polls close in two hours. Make your predictions.

by raginillinoian 2005-08-02 01:14PM | 0 recs

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Hackett by a decent bit

Say 53-47

Now... I'm out here in OK, and all I see is the M$M and blogs on this issue, so I'm basically reading the peace pipe smoke shapes out here

by teknofyl 2005-08-02 01:24PM | 0 recs

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My prediction:

Ohioans insert foot in their own asses just like in 2004. It was an uphill climb.

by Vote Hillary 2008 2005-08-02 03:08PM | 0 recs

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I Always Have Had a Lot of Respect for Cook....

But even using his own numbers, his framing of the race is, to use his term, laughable. Using his PVI numbers (R +13), Schmidt should win 63-37.

I think he might be saying a win of 5-9 points as a majority (55-59%), instead of a margin of victory. It is the only way his numbers make any sense.

My prediction is pretty dire, just because the district is so freaking bad for us. I am going to say Schmidt 57-43. And pray that I am wrong--as I just heard Hackett on Randi Rhoads' show, and he is EXACTLY the kind of guy we need in the Congress.

by Singiser 2005-08-02 03:55PM | 0 recs