Ohio Results Thread II

by Jerome Armstrong, Tue Aug 02, 2005 at 04:35:03 PM EDT

I just went through and calculated the percentages of the total that each county represents, according to CNN's 2004 CD totals:

Adams- 4%
Brown- 7%
Clermont- 28%
Hamilton-40%
Pike-4%
Scioto-4%
Warren-13%

Chris will carry on with the updates on this fresh thread.

Updates (Chris):

Old results thread here.
56 of 753 precints reporting. Hackett 51-49 Schimdt. Hackett 6562-6276 Schimdt. Here we go rock and roll. Yesss!!!! link
Holy Shit.
175 of 753 precints, Hackett 51-49 Schimdt. Hackett 13,513-12,802. Its holding.
195 out of 753 precincts. Hackett 52-48 Schimdt. Hackett 14,600--13,549 Schimdt.
250 of 753. Hackett 51.99-48.01 Schimdt. Hackett 18,476--17,046. The force will be with Hackett, always. It is getting close to total freak-out time.
259 of 753. Hackett increases lead. 52.18--47.81. Hackett 19053--Schimdt 17457. Watch out for the karma police.
305 of 753. Hackett 51.08--Schimdt 48.92. Hackett 23,957--Schimdt 22,846. Schimdt closes gap.
laddy says: "Adams- 64-36 - 50 (7 points over) Brown- 64-36 - 50 (7 points over). Clermont- 71-29 - 43 (4 points short). Hamilton- 70-30 - 52 (1 point short). Updated Pike-52-48 - 62 (1 point short). Scioto- 52-48 - 62 (4 Points over). Warren- 72-28 - 42 (3 points over)."
That's a nailbiter folks. Might still very slightly favor Schimdt.
Find out whatever you can about Clermont Count voting machines. Do it now.
409 of 753. Hackett 50.45--Schimdt 49.54. Hackett 30322--Schimdt 29776.
580 of 753. Schimdt 52--Hackett 48. Schimdt 45,134--Hackett 42,342. Fuck.

Tags: House 2006 (all tags)

Comments

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I'm really loving the WCOP results :)

This might turn out really good after all.

Of course, let us remember what happened in November when everything seemed to be going so good early on :(

by manyoso 2005-08-02 04:37PM | 0 recs

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Re: I'm really loving the WCOP results :)

don't remind me.

by pacified 2005-08-02 04:56PM | 0 recs

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Check out...

http://www.wcpo.com/news/2005/local/08/02/election_results.html

by Stoic 2005-08-02 04:38PM | 0 recs

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Go Edgewood Schools Levy!

by Kagro X 2005-08-02 04:39PM | 0 recs

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Re: Go Edgewood Schools Levy!

Being from the area, I agree. They really could use the money.

by Demo Dan in Dayton 2005-08-02 04:41PM | 0 recs

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2004

Results for Brown county 2004 OH-02 race:
Rep. 72%
Dem. 28%

So far, then, it looks good for Hackett who is leading Brown county 57-42.

by YellowDog2000 2005-08-02 04:40PM | 0 recs

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Update on Brown

Slightly in Schmidt's favor, but not by much:

PAUL HACKETT (DEM) . . . . . . . 3,289 56.52
JEAN SCHMIDT (REP) . . . . . . . 2,519 43.29
WRITE-IN. . . . . . . . . . . 11 .19
Total . . . . . . . . . 5,819

by Geotpf 2005-08-02 04:46PM | 0 recs

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Re: Update on Brown

What are you talking about? That clearly has Hackett winning Brown by 770 votes :)

by manyoso 2005-08-02 04:48PM | 0 recs

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I mean compared to the previous update

Which was:

PAUL HACKETT (DEM) . . . . . . . 3,289 56.52
JEAN SCHMIDT (REP) . . . . . . . 2,519 43.29
WRITE-IN. . . . . . . . . . . 11 .19
Total . . . . . . . . . 5,819

by Geotpf 2005-08-02 04:48PM | 0 recs

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Doh

PAUL HACKETT (DEM) . . . . . . . 2,279 57.30
JEAN SCHMIDT (REP) . . . . . . . 1,692 42.54
WRITE-IN. . . . . . . . . . . 6 .15
Total . . . . . . . . . 3,977

by Geotpf 2005-08-02 04:48PM | 0 recs

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Re: Update on Brown

That's the final result for Brown county, FWIW.

by niq 2005-08-02 04:48PM | 0 recs

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I dunno

Less than 20% turnout? Could be, but this would seem to be too soon to have final numbers.

by Geotpf 2005-08-02 04:50PM | 0 recs

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Nope, another update

PAUL HACKETT (DEM) . . . . . . . 3,950 55.92
JEAN SCHMIDT (REP) . . . . . . . 3,100 43.88
WRITE-IN. . . . . . . . . . . 14 .20
Total . . . . . . . . . 7,064

by Goobergunch 2005-08-02 05:12PM | 0 recs

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thanks

for the clean sheets. we needed it.

by annatopia 2005-08-02 04:40PM | 0 recs

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51-49

Not bad, considering that this should be a BLOW OUT for Schmidt by now...

by jonweasel 2005-08-02 04:40PM | 0 recs

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Oh yeah!!

Looks like tek's birthday surprise came early this year!!

by teknofyl 2005-08-02 04:44PM | 0 recs

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damnit

I need an update asap, the suspense is killing me

by ben114 2005-08-02 04:44PM | 0 recs

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Re: damnit

Me too.

by Chris Bowers 2005-08-02 04:47PM | 0 recs

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S E Counties

Any word from Pike, Adams or Scioto yet. I'm not seeing anything. Jerome? Anyone?

by Demo Dan in Dayton 2005-08-02 04:45PM | 0 recs

4a2fab88-ed3b-47a4-8f14-3ec8a24504ac_normal

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Re: S E Counties

Nothing from there yet. Hopefully Hackett can keep it close cause those rural counties would push it over the top for him, especially Pike and Scioto.

by Jerome Armstrong 2005-08-02 04:47PM | 0 recs

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Re: S E Counties

He seems to be the right candidate for that area. So I am kinda concerned that we are not seeing any results yet.

by Demo Dan in Dayton 2005-08-02 04:50PM | 0 recs

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Re: S E Counties

I was just at the Pike County Board of Elections. No votes counted yet. They were still waiting for some of the townships to bring the boxes into the board offices. Hackett signs are everywhere in Pike County.

by rrunyon 2005-08-02 04:52PM | 0 recs

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Re: S E Counties

Hackett will win in Pike County by a strong margin, like 60-70 percent I think.

by Jerome Armstrong 2005-08-02 04:56PM | 0 recs

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Re: S E Counties

well, that is the queston...

are the districts left more dem leaning, and if this trend continues, Hackett will be doing extemely well right now.

by pacified 2005-08-02 04:57PM | 0 recs

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If so...

...then he probably wins, if the rest of the results are typical for the rest of the district.

by Geotpf 2005-08-02 04:59PM | 0 recs

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Oh, never mind

I now see that it's not the county I thought it was.

by Geotpf 2005-08-02 05:01PM | 0 recs

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Pike County

Schmidt 611 (39%)
Hackett 965 (61%)

12 of 24 precincts reporting

taken from http://news.enquirer.com/apps/pbcs.dll/article?AID=/20050802/NEWS01/308020015

by Goobergunch 2005-08-02 04:55PM | 0 recs

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Re: Pike County

AHHHAA! And look down, it seems Paul is closing on Schmidt in Hamilton County too

by manyoso 2005-08-02 04:57PM | 0 recs

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Re: Pike County

Awesome.

by jexter 2005-08-02 04:59PM | 0 recs

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From niq on the old thread

http://66.241.236.181/elect/ohbrown/results.txt
PAUL HACKETT (DEM) . . . . . . . 3,289 56.52
JEAN SCHMIDT (REP) . . . . . . . 2,519 43.29

Hackett won Brown. Hands down.

by manyoso 2005-08-02 04:46PM | 0 recs

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Re: From niq on the old thread

how red is Brown compared to the rest of the district

by ben114 2005-08-02 04:48PM | 0 recs

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Re: From niq on the old thread

About the same.

by Chris Bowers 2005-08-02 04:49PM | 0 recs

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Re: From niq on the old thread

Just a caution that since Hackett lives in the district and has been an elected official before, he's going to win somewhere :). So, it may be brown county. But I don't know much about Southern Ohio geography and I can't remember which town he's from, but keep that in mind.

by niq 2005-08-02 04:49PM | 0 recs

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Re: From niq on the old thread

Hmm, well, way to put a bummer on it ;) But, yah, I don't expect Hackett will actually win the district, but he is doing phenom for a Dem in such a conservative District. I mean he said Bush was a SOB and they are still voting in droves for him :)

by manyoso 2005-08-02 04:50PM | 0 recs

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Re: From niq on the old thread

Hackett is from Indian Hills which is about 50 physical miles from Brown county and about a million cultural miles away. This is a very good sign he is doing well here. This is the sort of county Democrats used to count on.

by rrunyon 2005-08-02 04:55PM | 0 recs

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Won it.

Brown is only 7% of the CD's total vote, but Hackett won it by a 56-43 margin. Portman won it by a 72-28 margin in 2002. I earlier figured it as a 60-40 Republican leg margin. That means Hackett swung the vote by about 16% in Brown County. Wow, great start.

by Jerome Armstrong 2005-08-02 04:50PM | 0 recs

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Re: Won it.

Bush won in Brown by a 64-36 margin over Kerry. So Hackett just finished a complete reversal of a rural county in Ohio for a Democrat. From down by a 20-28 percent margin to winning by 13 percent margin-- better than I thought.

by Jerome Armstrong 2005-08-02 04:55PM | 0 recs

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Results holding ... stay on target ...

US HOUSE Ohio 2nd Dist
175 precincts of 753 reporting
PAUL HACKETT 13,512 51%
JEAN SCHMIDT 12,802 49%

That's 23% of all precincts reporting.

Still too close to call. Oy.

by niq 2005-08-02 04:50PM | 0 recs

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Re: Results holding ... stay on target ...

Use the force Hackett...

by manyoso 2005-08-02 04:51PM | 0 recs

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Re: Results holding ... stay on target ...

...trust in your instincts... let go you feelings, Paul...

by manyoso 2005-08-02 04:52PM | 0 recs

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Re: Results holding ... stay on target ...

Paul, you've switched off your targeting computer; whats wrong!?

Nothing. I'm all right!

by jkfp2004 2005-08-02 04:54PM | 0 recs

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Re: Results holding ... stay on target ...

Win or lose....The force will be with you, always

by zt155 2005-08-02 05:01PM | 0 recs

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Strong in the Force is Hackett....

Much fear do I sense in Schmidt.

by teknofyl 2005-08-02 04:54PM | 0 recs

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51-49 holding for Hackett

Now 175 precincts in.

by jonweasel 2005-08-02 04:50PM | 0 recs

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New Numbers

US HOUSE Ohio 2nd Dist
175 precincts of 753 reporting
PAUL HACKETT 13,512 51%
JEAN SCHMIDT 12,802 49%

by duncin32 2005-08-02 04:51PM | 0 recs

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Warren County - 64.56%

PAUL HACKETT DEM 3,523 43.33
JEAN SCHMIDT REP 4,608 56.67

by Goobergunch 2005-08-02 04:51PM | 0 recs

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Re: Warren County - 64.56%

That's a small move towards Schmidt. Nuts.

Still no results from Clermont county ...

by niq 2005-08-02 04:55PM | 0 recs

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Wow, this is a squeaker

by Geotpf 2005-08-02 04:52PM | 0 recs

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Hackett leading with 175 precincts reporting!

Hackett is still leading, with now 175 of 753 precincts reporting, 51% to 49%:

US HOUSE Ohio 2nd Dist
175 precincts of 753 reporting
PAUL HACKETT 13,512 51%
JEAN SCHMIDT 12,802 49%

http://www.wcpo.com/news/2005/local/08/02/election_results.html

Come on, Hackett! Let's keep those numbers rolling in!!

by Matusleo 2005-08-02 04:52PM | 0 recs

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Rural question?

how is Hackett doing in the rural countys?

by Liberal 2005-08-02 04:53PM | 0 recs

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latest

175 precincts of 753 reporting
PAUL HACKETT 13,512 51%
JEAN SCHMIDT 12,802 49%

by ATinNM 2005-08-02 04:53PM | 0 recs

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Happy enough

Well, whether he wins or not, it does my heart good to see him doing so well.

by jnfr 2005-08-02 04:54PM | 0 recs

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52-48!! with 195

at the hamilton pdf site

by DonBinTN 2005-08-02 04:54PM | 0 recs

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Re: 52-48!! with 195

Wow, WOW, WOOOWWW!!!

Paul is closing on Schmidt in Hamilton County??!! Could this really be our night?!

by manyoso 2005-08-02 04:56PM | 0 recs

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Re: 52-48!! with 195

Hamilton County compiles the district-wide results, being the biggest county in the district. He's leading across all 7 counties, not just in Hamilton!

by lorax 2005-08-02 05:07PM | 0 recs

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23% of precincts are in

and we're still holding, its still gonna be damn close though. * passes out*

by ben114 2005-08-02 04:55PM | 0 recs

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What about Hamilton?

How is he doing in hamiltion? sorry for all the questions it's just this is my only source right now.

by Liberal 2005-08-02 04:58PM | 0 recs

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Re: What about Hamilton?

HE IS WINNING HAMILTON 52 to 48!!!!

http://www.hamilton-co.org/boe/inputdata/Electionsresults/Realtime/RealTime.pdf

by manyoso 2005-08-02 05:00PM | 0 recs

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175 Precincts

US HOUSE Ohio 2nd Dist
175 precincts of 753 reporting PAUL HACKETT 13,512 51%
JEAN SCHMIDT 12,802 49%

by schwompa 2005-08-02 04:59PM | 0 recs

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Compare

the 2004 results to the numbers we have now. It's looking good.
Click here for the 2004 OH-02 results

by YellowDog2000 2005-08-02 04:59PM | 0 recs

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Um...

how do you get the 52-48 figure? WCPO is still saying it's 51-49.

by raginillinoian 2005-08-02 04:59PM | 0 recs

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Re: Um...

Hamilton County is running a total, too. Right now, it's more up-to-date:

http://www.hamilton-co.org/boe/inputdata/Electionsresults/RealTime/RealTime.pdf

by jonweasel 2005-08-02 05:00PM | 0 recs

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Re: Um...

Well, just in Hamilton County Paul is winning by 52% to 48%

http://www.hamilton-co.org/boe/inputdata/Electionsresults/Realtime/RealTime.pdf

by manyoso 2005-08-02 05:00PM | 0 recs

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eh didn't see the post on it sorry

good to hear

by Liberal 2005-08-02 04:59PM | 0 recs

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Hamilton County

With 25% of Hamilton County Reporting

Hackett - 14,676 52%
Schmidt - 13,549 48%

Hamilton County accounted for 40% of the votes in the district in 2004. This is HUGE!

by sparks 2005-08-02 05:00PM | 0 recs

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Re: Hamilton County

Unbelievably HUGE! I mean he was _DOWN_ just a little bit ago and he is now _LEADING_ in Hamilton Freaking County.

I'm about ready to piss myself.

by manyoso 2005-08-02 05:01PM | 0 recs

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I take it back

I thought the Hamilton boe link was just for Hamilton County. It appears those numbers are districtwide.

by sparks 2005-08-02 05:02PM | 0 recs

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52-48 holding with 250 in

hamilton pdf site

by DonBinTN 2005-08-02 05:02PM | 0 recs

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Re: 52-48 holding with 250 in

I wish I knew the political demographics in this district -- can we call it for Hackett statistically, yet?

by jonweasel 2005-08-02 05:03PM | 0 recs

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Re: 52-48 holding with 250 in

No, we can't, Clermont is a GOP stronghold, but then again, so was it all.

by Jerome Armstrong 2005-08-02 05:11PM | 0 recs

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Re: 52-48 holding with 250 in

Anyone else having trouble loading that? It hasn't worked for me a single time. I never have trouble with any other PDF's, so I'm not sure what the deal is...I don't even get an error - just nothing. ???

by Blogesque 2005-08-02 05:10PM | 0 recs

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Re: 52-48 holding with 250 in

EVEN BETTER!

Check the Hamilton Link now:
http://www.hamilton-co.org/boe/inputdata/Electionsresults/Realtime/RealTime.pdf
Hackett: 19053 52.18%
Schmidt: 17457 47.81%

by manyoso 2005-08-02 05:11PM | 0 recs

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probably server load

everybody and their brother is trying to load is right now.

by annatopia 2005-08-02 05:12PM | 0 recs

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Pike County

Hackett 61%
Schmidt 39%

50% reporting

by YellowDog2000 2005-08-02 05:02PM | 0 recs

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Handy picture

This Enquirer article has a good picture.

http://news.enquirer.com/apps/pbcs.dll/article?AID=/20050802/NEWS01/308020015

Note that Hackett's gap closing in Hamilton County has been HUGE. He lost absentees 54.6-45.4, but he has closed to 50.8-49.2 with about 11,600 votes counted. I backed out the absentee voters and this means Hackett is winning Hamilton County poll voters 51.0-49.0.

Does anyone know how Hamilton county turned out in 2000?

by niq 2005-08-02 05:03PM | 0 recs

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Re: Handy picture

Okay, overall Hamilton went 53-47 for Bush, and in CD2 went 70-30 for Portman. Either way, that's a dramatic turn.

Does anyone have the Bush-Kerry numbers for the CD2 portion of Hamilton County?

by niq 2005-08-02 05:05PM | 0 recs

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Re: Handy picture

Well, all kinds of things to feel good about right now. Ok, when does the shoe drop.

by manyoso 2005-08-02 05:05PM | 0 recs

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Re: Handy picture

70-30 in Portman's 04 election. Link CNN.

by KTinTX 2005-08-02 05:16PM | 0 recs

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Clement?

What about Clement County

Someone told me that Shit is counting on this one to take her over the top

by duncin32 2005-08-02 05:04PM | 0 recs

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Re: Clement?

The only results so far in Clement county are absentee ballots.

by YellowDog2000 2005-08-02 05:05PM | 0 recs

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Re: Clement?

That's Clermont- which is probably what you mean since there is no Clement county.

by YellowDog2000 2005-08-02 05:07PM | 0 recs

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Massachusetts is hoping too....

I have been watching Paul for some time now
and I am keeping my fingers cross, praying,
you name it, I am doing it...Have been down
this road with hubby a few times and it nerve
wracking...Hang in there.....

Best of luck to Paul and his volunteers...they
have done a super job!!

Moesie from Wakefield, MA

by momaloney 2005-08-02 05:04PM | 0 recs

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Re: Massachusetts is hoping too....

One more from MA.

My family lives in Portsmouth, OH now. I recommended Hackett to DFA back in late June. We need this seat. No pressure.

-Kevin, Boston

by Ubiquitous 2005-08-02 05:07PM | 0 recs

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Warren County - 82.28%

PAUL HACKETT DEM 4,512 42.32
JEAN SCHMIDT REP 6,150 57.68

http://www.co.warren.oh.us/bdelec/search/votingresults/voting_results_publish.asp

by Goobergunch 2005-08-02 05:04PM | 0 recs

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Re: Warren County - 82.28%

whoa these numbers are out of line with what other counties are reporting.

by agpc 2005-08-02 05:08PM | 0 recs

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Re: Warren County - 82.28%

Warren and Clermont are going to be the two biggest Republican counties.

by Jerome Armstrong 2005-08-02 05:12PM | 0 recs

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Wow!

Latest from the Enquirer's partial results page:

Schmidt: 14,008 votes (48%)
Hackett: 15,154 votes (52%)

2nd Congressional District

by kelvinchapman 2005-08-02 05:05PM | 0 recs

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Jean Schmidt blatantly violating election law (?)

What do you people make of this?

Via Democratic Underground:
http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=view_all&address=104x4246421
*****
Jean Schmidt blatantly violating election law

Edited on Tue Aug-02-05 07:42 PM by Gabi Hayes

caller to Sam Seder is documenting how Jean Schmidt is getting WELL within the 100 foot margin within which no signs or campaigning is permitted

the caller was GREETED PERSONALLY by Schmidt inside this perimeter

he told pollworkers about it, who asked her to leave

she refused

the caller went back and got a camera and videotaped her violating the law!

Clermont county, btw
*******

by iconoclastic cat 2005-08-02 05:06PM | 0 recs

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if anything this shows one thing

Upsets can still happen and i bet the 50 stratagy Dean DNC people are very happy about this.

by Liberal 2005-08-02 05:06PM | 0 recs

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Hamilton BOE update

Hackett - 18476 51.99
Schmidt - 17064 48.01

Omniously no precincts have yet reported for Cleremont County.

by adamterando 2005-08-02 05:06PM | 0 recs

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Call me officially FREAKED OUT.

by manyoso 2005-08-02 05:07PM | 0 recs

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Claremont Cnty is suddenly scaring me

lemme guess, they use Diebold there . . . ?

by kelvinchapman 2005-08-02 05:07PM | 0 recs

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Re: Claremont Cnty is suddenly scaring me

I don't think so, but they voted 77% for Portman in 2004 while casting 27.3% of the district-wide vote. So they're scaring me a bit too....

by Goobergunch 2005-08-02 05:08PM | 0 recs

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Re: Claremont Cnty is suddenly scaring me

The vote totals from Clermont county only include absentee ballots. There has not been any update for today's voting.

by YellowDog2000 2005-08-02 05:12PM | 0 recs

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Re: Claremont Cnty is suddenly scaring me

There is no Diebold anywhere in the district. Enough with it people.

by KTinTX 2005-08-02 05:18PM | 0 recs

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Re: Claremont Cnty is suddenly scaring me

Is there are reason they are taking so long to report? Just curious because other places seem to be reporting

by bruh21 2005-08-02 05:26PM | 0 recs

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More, now

Hackett's lead is increasing with the latest update (259 precincts in) -- 52.18% to 47.81%.

by jonweasel 2005-08-02 05:08PM | 0 recs

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Hackett continues to lead.

Hackett 18476
Schmidt 17064
245 out of 753 pcts in (32.5%)

by LA Democrat 2005-08-02 05:08PM | 0 recs

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Re: Hackett continues to lead.

Where are those #s from?

by artvandelay 2005-08-02 05:10PM | 0 recs

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Go Hackett! Go Hackett!

Wow.

by Geotpf 2005-08-02 05:09PM | 0 recs

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Even better people

Check the Hamilton Link now:

http://www.hamilton-co.org/boe/inputdata/Electionsresults/Realtime/RealTime.pdf

Hackett: 19053 52.18%
Schmidt: 17457 47.81%

by manyoso 2005-08-02 05:09PM | 0 recs

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Schmidt's problem in a close race

By having it close other Republicans with ambition have a reason to quietly undermine Schmidt.

If a Republican has a good chance of getting the nomination in 2006, s/he'd want Schmidt to lose to get the chance to run against Hackett as the GOP nominee.

And I get the impression Schmidt isn't exactly well-liked by her GOP breathren.

by Carl Nyberg 2005-08-02 05:09PM | 0 recs

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Re: Schmidt's problem in a close race

"If a Republican has a good chance of getting the nomination in 2006, s/he'd want Schmidt to lose to get the chance to run against Hackett as the GOP nominee."

If Hackett does win, then it will be up to the DCCC to hold up to their end of the bargain by ensuring $2M+ is pumped into his campaign.

If Hackett wins, the DCCC and DNC cannot afford the GOP, Hastert, and Delay the opportunity to declare this special election a fluke.

by Bill Felmlee 2005-08-02 05:17PM | 0 recs

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20,600 - 19,000 (52-48)!

at the enquirer site

by DonBinTN 2005-08-02 05:11PM | 0 recs

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Dude... I'm freakin' out here!!

<runscreamingincirclesaroundlivingroom>
ARRRRRRGH!!! uh-HUH-uh-HUH-oh-yeah!!!
ARRRRRRRRRRAAAAAAAGHHHHHH
</runscreamingincirclesaroundlivingroom>

by teknofyl 2005-08-02 05:12PM | 0 recs

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too much crown & coke

LMAO

by annatopia 2005-08-02 05:13PM | 0 recs

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Oh no!

Not enough! Time to start numero cinco!

by teknofyl 2005-08-02 05:25PM | 0 recs

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Red State says

18,615 (48.45%) 19,803 (51.54%), with Hackett winning.

by Geotpf 2005-08-02 05:12PM | 0 recs

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305 precincts of 753 reporting
PAUL HACKETT 23,957 51%
JEAN SCHMIDT 22,846 49%

by LaughingHistorian 2005-08-02 05:12PM | 0 recs

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Re: More

Wierd that it has been steady 51-49 from the very beginning. Like others though, I am worried about Clermont. Is there a logical-historical reason why they have not reported yet?

by Andy Katz 2005-08-02 05:14PM | 0 recs

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Re: More

Well, the turnout is much more than expected. Looks like it will be about 100K that vote, when it was looking, from the Hackett campaigns perspective, that only 50K would vote.

by Jerome Armstrong 2005-08-02 05:15PM | 0 recs

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County Results

The first two columns are Bush vs. Kerry - The last column is what Hackett would need to overcome the 14 point difference. The stuff in paranthesis tells you how Hackett is holding up, but some of these, like Hamilton are partial counties, so I used the congressional and approximated based on how short the Democrat performed. Take the grain of salt! Adams- 64-36 - 50 (7 points over) Brown- 64-36 - 50 (7 points over) Clermont- 71-29 - 43 (4 points short) Hamilton- 70-30 - 52 (3 points short) Pike-52-48 - 62 (1 point short) Scioto- 52-48 - 62 (4 Points over) Warren- 72-28 - 42 (3 points over)

by Kombiz Lavasany 2005-08-02 05:13PM | 0 recs

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305 Precincts reporting...

Hackett 23,957
Schmidt 22,846

51-49

by InigoMontoya 2005-08-02 05:13PM | 0 recs

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we're halfway there, folks!

by annatopia 2005-08-02 05:17PM | 0 recs

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9:11 PM, almost half of district reporting

Election Results
Last Updated: 8/02/2005 9:11pm
Note: You must refresh this page for updated results by clicking the reload button on your browser.

US HOUSE Ohio 2nd Dist
305 precincts of 753 reporting
PAUL HACKETT 23,957 51%
JEAN SCHMIDT 22,846 49%

by Blogesque 2005-08-02 05:13PM | 0 recs

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Re: 9:11 PM, almost half of district reporting

Too close for my comfort, but holy shit, I mean the fact that we're actually winning at this point is just a HUGE victory in and of itself.

by manyoso 2005-08-02 05:15PM | 0 recs

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I hope Hackett's team . . .

is keeping a close eye on Clermont County. Don't let the repubs sandbag there, waiting for results elsewhere before reporting its count.

by cs 2005-08-02 05:13PM | 0 recs

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Looks like Hackett is pulling away

this is great news also on 2006 let's worry about it when that comes we are not sure he has won yet but it sure looks like it. Also i doubt the GOP thought this could happen i'm pretty sure they thought it would be a safe seat with schim. winning by 10+ points.

by Liberal 2005-08-02 05:13PM | 0 recs

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County Results

Adams- 64-36 - 50 (7 points over)
Brown- 64-36 - 50 (7 points over)
Clermont- 71-29 - 43 (4 points short)
Hamilton- 70-30 - 52 (3 points short)
Pike-52-48 - 62 (1 point short)
Scioto- 52-48 - 62 (4 Points over)
Warren- 72-28 - 42 (3 points over)

by Kombiz Lavasany 2005-08-02 05:14PM | 0 recs

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What the numbers meant!

The numbers I posted in a comment and Chris put on the front page came from a quick pull of the 2004 election results in the counties. I posted what they meant in a comment above it, and then reformatted and re-posted.

The first two numbers are the Bush vs. Kerry numbers from 2004, with partial counties taking numbers from the Congressional race in 2004. The thrid number is the percentage Hackett would need in the county to get to 50%, and the number in the parenthesis means how many points he's over that threshold.

They represented a quick reference to see how Hackett was doing while only looking at partial numbers. Apologies for confusing people with a set of numbers without an explanation, the explanation didn't make it into comment and was in an above comment in the previous thread.

Here are the numbers, though with almost everything tabulated they don't mean a lot now.

Adams- 64-36 - 50 (7 points over) (34%)
Brown- 64-36 - 50 (6 points over) (100%)
Clermont- 71-29 - 43 (0 points short) (50%)
Hamilton- 70-30 - 52 (3 points short) (70%)
Pike-52-48 - 62 (1 point short) (50%)
Scioto- 52-48 - 62 (4 Points over) (71%)
Warren- 72-28 - 44 (2 points short) (100%)

by Kombiz Lavasany 2005-08-02 06:07PM | 0 recs

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Don't get too excited

Clermont and Hamilton, Schmidt's strongest counties, have barely begun counting. All the strong Hackett counties have been mostly counted.

I still expect Schmidt to win, but if it stays close I'll be happy!

by raginillinoian 2005-08-02 05:14PM | 0 recs

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Depends on what's counted in Hamilton

Because such a high chunk of the voters are in Hamilton, the fact that Hackett is winning the poll voters in hamilton might offset Schmidt's strength in Clermont county.

by niq 2005-08-02 05:19PM | 0 recs

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Re: Don't get too excited

Yeah, it seems like they always count republican counties last. Elation is usually followed by disapointment.

Either way, the Ohio Repubs have received a shot across the bow tonight.

The question is, can we translate these results into meaningful gains in 06'?

by agpc 2005-08-02 05:20PM | 0 recs

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Re: Don't get too excited

This has national implications. It's basically could become a blueprint for how to win.

by bruh21 2005-08-02 05:29PM | 0 recs

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Coming back

Here's the district wide results from WCPO

305 precincts reporting

PAUL HACKETT 23,957 51%
JEAN SCHMIDT 22,846 49%

Schmidt has reduced Hackett's margin by 450 votes in the last 46 precincts.

No pressure, folks.

by niq 2005-08-02 05:15PM | 0 recs

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I can't tell if I want Paul to win...

...because he will be the first candidate I supported since I left the Republican party or just because I gave his campaign $100. LOL
Go Paul!

by torrentprime 2005-08-02 05:15PM | 0 recs

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Update

25,920 Hackett
24,527 Schmidt

http://news.enquirer.com/apps/pbcs.dll/article?AID=/20050802/NEWS01/308020015

by Geotpf 2005-08-02 05:16PM | 0 recs

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can only hope.

but i will get excited anyway so i can feel good right now lol.

by Liberal 2005-08-02 05:16PM | 0 recs

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One nice thing about supporting a candidate...

...for a congressional district ~2000 miles east of where I live is that the polls closed before I got off work, and I can catch the late returns and not be all bleary-eyed tomorrow.

The downside is I didn't get to vote for him. (But I did throw some money at him, and I'm hoping that helped. :)

Go Three Rivers Schools Levy!!!

by jexter 2005-08-02 05:16PM | 0 recs

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clermont

clermont county is the scariest

by Jordan IU 2005-08-02 05:17PM | 0 recs

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Schmidt's gonna win

Hamilton and Clermont, her strongest counties, haven't been counted. Adams, Scioto, Pike, Warren, and Brown, Hackett's better counties, are almost done.

by raginillinoian 2005-08-02 05:17PM | 0 recs

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Re: Schmidt's gonna win

Actually, almost half of Hamilton has come in and it is breaking in the Dems favor 52-48

by Chris Andersen 2005-08-02 05:19PM | 0 recs

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Geotpf:

How many percints is that?

by LA Democrat 2005-08-02 05:17PM | 0 recs

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Warren is done

PAUL HACKETT DEM 5,420 41.77
JEAN SCHMIDT REP 7,556 58.23

by Goobergunch 2005-08-02 05:18PM | 0 recs

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Excellent blog

Although we don't agree with you, we're watching your posts anxiously. Keep up the good work.

www.rightangleblog.blogspot.com

by rightangleblog 2005-08-02 05:18PM | 0 recs

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Re: Excellent blog

You stepping all up in mydd. Know what I'm saying? Yeah! Got the numbers, yeah CB's got the numbers. Jeromes got the numbers. We got spreadsheet. Oh yeah...

by Christopher Hitchens 2005-08-02 05:20PM | 0 recs

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Could this be

the battle that turn the tide against the dark side known as the Repugs?

by HCLiberal 2005-08-02 05:18PM | 0 recs

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Re: Could this be

You keep calling people like me, recently converted Republicans, Repugs and Repukes and the like, and it's probably not going to be the turning of the tide.
But no room on this thread for name-calling: right now I just want to hope Paul wins it.

by torrentprime 2005-08-02 05:24PM | 0 recs

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Re: Could this be

Thanks for your feedback and I stop using that language.

by HCLiberal 2005-08-04 06:35PM | 0 recs

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Warren County

PAUL HACKETT DEM 5,420 41.77
JEAN SCHMIDT REP 7,556 58.23

by adamterando 2005-08-02 05:20PM | 0 recs

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i'm about to piss in my pants.

Hackett 30322(50.45%)
Schmidt 29776(49.54%)
Still nothing from Clermont

by LA Democrat 2005-08-02 05:21PM | 0 recs

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Re: i'm about to piss in my pants.

Clermont Results show 1,800 margin for Schmidt.

by BooMan 2005-08-02 05:27PM | 0 recs

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Clermont

is the key county

Hackett is going to need a decent lead to overcome this county going for schmidt. If he can pull out 3% lead elsewhere i think he may have it judging by the Hamilton county results.
Who knows he creamed Schmidt in Brown.

Warren doesnt look great.

by Pounder 2005-08-02 05:21PM | 0 recs

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Good luck from the Beaver State

On the edge of my seat in Oregon...

by DF 2005-08-02 05:21PM | 0 recs

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Fingers crossed.

COME ON HACKETT!!!!!!!!!!!

by Liberal 2005-08-02 05:22PM | 0 recs

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Please.

Come on HACKETT!!!!

by LA Democrat 2005-08-02 05:22PM | 0 recs

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BOE update

Hackett - 30322
Schmidt - 29776

409 precincts

by adamterando 2005-08-02 05:23PM | 0 recs

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come on hackett

COME ON HACKETT DON'T PISS ME OFF AGAIN OHIO!!!

by Liberal 2005-08-02 05:25PM | 0 recs

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It's happening right now

With zero precincts reporting in Clermont County they are counting how many extra votes they need before they release the numbers. Yes, it's happening right now, friends.

by sparks 2005-08-02 05:26PM | 0 recs

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FRESH THREAD!! FRESH THREAD!! FRESH THREAD!!

Chris was nice enough to start a fresh thread for all of us nailbiters.

by manyoso 2005-08-02 05:26PM | 0 recs

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Hackett among Hamilton poll voters

Hamilton county is still less than 2/3rd counted, and it looks like Hackett is winning poll voters 51.5%-48.5%. Assuming precincts are roughly uniform, that means he may net another 250 or so votes from Hamilton. Since the rural counties are all almost done, that means he'll have a lead of roughly 1700 votes.

If I've done the math right, this means Hackett needs to stay within 6.5% in Clermont county. Based on 2004 results, there's little reason to think that Clermont is significantly more D or R than the rest of the district. Is Schmidt from Clermont County? Has the GOP consolidated some strength there?

by niq 2005-08-02 05:27PM | 0 recs